Kris Bryant was the College Player of the Year in 2013, the Minor League Player of the Year in 2014 and the National League Rookie of the Year in 2015.
Clearly, the guy likes to outdo himself. Maybe we shouldn’t be surprised about what he’s doing in 2016.
The Chicago Cubs entered Monday in a funk, having lost six out of seven. But their young third baseman helped them snap out of it in a big way with an 11-8 win over the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. Bryant went 5-for-5 with not one but two doubles and not one, not two but three home runs.
You are now formally invited to slack your jaw and gawk at all three of Bryant’s dingers, each of which was a mighty clout:
Immediately after Bryant sent that third baseball into the Cincinnati night, the tidbits started rolling in. Here’s a sampling:
- Per ESPN Stats and Info, Bryant’s 16 total bases were four more than any other hitter has accumulated in a game this season.
- Also per ESPN Stats and Info, Bryant was the first Cub to tally 16 total bases in the modern era.
- Per MLB, Bryant was the first player since 1913 to hit three homers and two doubles in a game.
“It’s the best game of my whole life,” the 24-year-old said, via Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com.
And with it now over, it’s apparent the general awesomeness of Bryant’s 2016 season is well ahead of his star turn as a rookie in 2015:
Bryant isn’t just outpacing his 2015 self. As of this moment, FanGraphs has him leading all National League position players in WAR. After coming into the year as one of the league’s best everyday players, he’s now arguably the best.
Granted, you could have seen that as the next logical step for him. And if it’s a step he was going to take, it would certainly be his bat that would help him take it. This is, after all, the same guy who hit 10 more homers than any other player in the country during his final collegiate season and slashed .327/.426/.667 in the minors before getting the call to the majors. Hitting is kinda-sorta Bryant’s thing.
However, the big upgrade we’re seeing hasn’t come simply from gaining experience in 2015 and then showing up for 2016. Bryant wasn’t content with the swing he had last year, so he got a new one.
“I feel [my swing is] a little flatter, and that’s what I wanted to be,” Bryant said in February, per Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune. “It was at too steep of an angle at times. That was my downfall last year, but I think it can only get better from here.”
By the logic of the ol’ “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” argument, Bryant risked much by tinkering with his swing. But he had a good excuse to give it a whirl.
His big weakness as a rookie was a tendency to swing and miss. A flatter swing would hypothetically allow him to be more direct to the ball, and thus better at making contact. And sure enough, Bryant’s strikeout percentage has dropped from 30.6 to 22.6.
That’s Benefit No. 1 of his new swing, but Benefit No. 2 is just as important: better contact. Courtesy of Baseball Savant, here’s how Bryant’s average launch angle, exit velocity and batted ball distance compared to last year entering Monday’s game:
A slight downward shift in Bryant’s average launch angle has translated to a higher rate of batted balls in the 25- to 30-degree sweet spot for power highlighted by FiveThirtyEight’s Rob Arthur in April. As such, it makes sense that Bryant’s exit velocity and distance have improved.
And remember, this was before Monday’s outburst. On Tuesday, those numbers will look even better.
Fewer strikeouts and better batted balls may not be the only benefits of Bryant’s new swing. More plate coverage could be yet another, as his batting average against pitches in the outer third of the strike zone and beyond has improved like so:
- 2015: .181
- 2016: .239
Pitchers seemed to have noticed this, as Bryant told Gonzales last week that they’ve taken to “pounding me in.” It can’t be said they’ve found a solution in doing so, however. Bryant’s slugging percentage against pitches in the inner third of the zone and beyond is yet another thing that’s improved:
- 2015: .577
- 2016: .676
This doesn’t mean Bryant is completely devoid of shortcomings. His strikeout rate is low by his own standards, but not by everyone else’s. And per Brooks Baseball, any pitcher who can make Bryant reach for an offering stands a pretty good chance of getting him out.
But relative to what Bryant did in his debut season, these are mere nitpicks. His list of weaknesses at the plate has shrunk considerably. So, too, has the list of ways to contain him.
It may just have been a matter of time before a team failed to stop him at least once on a given night. The Reds were the ones to fall on that sword, which leaves just one question going forward:
How will Bryant outdo himself next?
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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