It’s like choosing which of your children is most expendable. Nobody wants to ask the question, and for sure nobody wants to answer it. However, the 2011 San Francisco Giants‘ offensive woes were such that many Giants fans were ready to sell their first born in exchange for a hitter. Ok, not quite, but two runs per game for long stretches will make people do crazy things.
However, management seems intent on sticking to a strict budget this winter, and the stated top priority is to lock down the pitching staff for the future. Meanwhile, the plan for improving the offense seems to be: 1) hope Buster Posey stays healthy and hits; 2) Hope Freddy Sanchez stays healthy and hits; 3) Hope Brandon Crawford learns how to hit, and 4) throw some extra pennies in the fountain at the mall.
But what if there were a better solution? What if that solution involved giving up one of our beloved pitchers for an offensive force?
Granted, this is completely hypothetical, as the Giants seem intent on locking down both Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum to long-term deals. But hypotheticals are what get us through the dreary abyss of the offseason. If you were the Giants GM and the cupboard was bare, who would you sacrifice for the greater good?
This is not meant to be a prediction or even a good idea. But in December, these are the debates baseball fans have. Which pitcher is most valuable? Which one would you put on the block first? Here are my ideas. Feel free to differ.
It’s Not Madison Bumgarner
After a rough start, Bumgarner was lights out in 2011. He sported a 4.1 K/BB ratio, good for 10th in the Major Leagues, including a ridiculous 9.1 in June and July. As the Giants’ ship sank in August and September, Bumgarner was outright dominant, posting a 2.18 ERA over his last 11 starts.
The advanced metrics suggest that Bumgarner may have been the best starting pitcher on the team last season. He led the staff in Wins Above Replacement (5.4) and xFIP (3.10). His opponents had a batting average on balls in play of .322, easily the highest among Giants regulars, which suggests a measure of bad luck.
Right now, Bumgarner is a veritable Tom Glavine to Cain’s and Lincecum’s Maddux and Smoltz. He’s also under team control until 2017. The Giants are sitting on a gold mine, and I can’t imagine Bumgarner coming up in any trade talks for years.
That leaves Cain and Lincecum…
Surely Not Tim Lincecum
The face of the franchise, Lincecum may go down as the most popular Giant ever. When he was promoted from Fresno, the expectations were impossible. And he fulfilled them anyway.
When Lincecum won two Cy Young Awards in his first two years, we said, “Yeah, Timmy’s right on schedule.” And when Giants fans were worried that Lincecum might finally be getting tired in late 2010, he inflicted this on the Braves:
9 IP, 2 H, 14 K
Throw in a dominating performance to clinch the World Series, and Lincecum is a true Bay Area legend.
The main concern with Lincecum is whether or not he will hold up as the years wear on. Many still believe Lincecum is a flash in the pan whose flame will burn out quickly. However, these ideas are based on negative scouting stereotypes of pitchers with small frames and funky windups. There is no evidence that Lincecum is breaking down any time soon.
Lincecum is a proven bona-fide ace. He’s the guy you throw in Game 7. Every time. He’s in an elite class of undisputed aces with a history of clutch performances. Sabathia, Lee, Halladay, Beckett, Carpenter, Lincecum. You hold on to guys like that regardless of the cost.
Yes Indeed, It’s Matt Cain
If Lincecum and Bumgarner are Bieber and Britney, Matt Cain is the underground garage band we told everyone would hit it big. Cain is as reliable a starter as there is in the big leagues. As traditional right-handed aces go, Cain is easier on the eyes than Lincecum. He is big, broad-shouldered, doesn’t have a wiffle-ball windup and keeps his hair groomed.
Cain’s career statistics contain some amusing contradictions. Despite posting a 3.26 ERA since 2007, Cain has compiled a record of 54-60 during that time period with abysmal run support. These funky stats make Cain even more endearing to Giants fans. Wins were irrelevant to Cain’s success long before it was cool to not care about wins.
Cain, however, is the odd man out in my hopefully-never-gonna-happen hypothetical. Bumgarner is younger and left-handed. Lincecum is the undisputed ace. If Brian Sabean has a drug-induced moment of weakness next week at the Winter Meetings and Brian Cashman offers Cano, Teixeira and Granderson, Cain is the one to go.
But don’t worry. It’s only hypothetical. For now.
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