The Atlanta Braves making a headline-grabbing trade? After all they’ve done in the last few months, odds are you’re not surprised to hear that.
Rather, if you’re surprised by anything, it’s the nature of the Braves’ latest swap.
Buzz began to build Friday afternoon that Atlanta was nearing a deal with the Cleveland Indians that would net it All-Stars-turned-duds Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn. Eventually, that buzz led to a trade that looks like this:
If nothing else, this is our first big reminder that, yes, big-ticket deals can still go down after the passing of the July 31 deadline. That’s thanks to MLB‘s waivers system. ‘Tis a complicated affair, but it can get things done all the same.
Beyond that, though, it takes some mental gymnastics to get a grip on this deal.
It makes sense that the Indians would want a player like Johnson. He’s having a lousy year with a .235 average and a .592 OPS. But one thing he’s continued to do in 2015 is hit left-handers well with a .747 OPS. Given his track record in that department, it’s possible the Indians have it in mind to solve their third-base conundrum with a Johnson/Lonnie Chisenhall platoon. Apart from that, trading two players for one allows the Indians to free up a roster space, which is always good.
But where things get interesting, of course, is why the Braves, of all teams, would want to take on the two players in question. Given the particulars, however, their end of the deal also makes sense.
Above all, it’s the contract swap that wouldn’t seem to make sense for Atlanta at first. The Braves now owe Bourn and Swisher a combined $29 million in 2016, whereas Cleveland owes Johnson a minimum of $17.5 million between 2016 and 2017, should the team choose to decline his $10 million option for 2018.
Why would the Braves want to take on more money?
This is where the cash considerations come into play. As Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reported, the Indians are kicking in over $10 million to the deal:
If so, the contract swap is basically a wash. Rather than paying Johnson $17.5 million in 2016 and 2017, the Braves will be giving $19 million to Swisher and Bourn in 2016.
The bad news? Atlanta will have less payroll flexibility for its 2016 roster.
The good news? The Braves will have increased payroll flexibility for their 2017 roster, which is part of their ultimate goal. Atlanta will be moving into its new home, SunTrust Park, in 2017, and it’s widely expected that the team is going to do its darnedest to put a winner on the field that year. To that end, having extra payroll flexibility will certainly help.
Mind you, there’s a chance that the Braves’ best-laid plans will be ruined by Swisher and Bourn triggering their vesting options for 2017, in which case Atlanta would be on the hook to pay them $26 million combined. But as Chris Cotillo of SB Nation noted, that’s unlikely to happen:
As much as anything, recent history is a strong indicator that neither Swisher nor Bourn will make it to 550 plate appearances in 2016. Due to a combination of injuries and age—Bourn is 32, and Swisher is 34—both are going to fall well short of 550 trips to the batter’s box for a second straight year in 2015.
But even if Swisher and Bourn find themselves on track for 550 plate appearances next season, that could be welcome news for the Braves. The two veterans are not going to find themselves in such a position unless they’re reasonably healthy and productive, and that’s something the Braves could take advantage of.
He’s been going about it in a unique way, but one thing John Hart has made clear since Atlanta named him its president of baseball operations last fall is that he means to stock the club with as much controllable talent as he can get his hands on. To do so, he’s notably traded Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Evan Gattis, Craig Kimbrel and Alex Wood since last winter.
And if Hart has his way, both Swisher and Bourn would be next.
Right now, neither Swisher nor Bourn has the trade value required to land young talent. Swisher has OPS’d just .597 since the start of 2014 and is currently on the shelf with knee troubles. Injuries also limited him to 97 games in 2014. Bourn has had issues with injuries throughout the last two seasons as well, and he has struggled with a .648 OPS and only 23 stolen bases in the process.
But at the same time, the Braves know as well as anyone that a healthy Swisher is a good hitter. He showed as much when he OPS’d .763 with 22 home runs in what was a “down” season in 2013. And as it happens, Bourn is showing right now that he’s also a good player when he’s right, as he’s hitting .360 with an .827 OPS since the All-Star break.
Or, if you prefer the sales pitch that Hart gave to Kevin McAlpin of Braves Radio Network: “We’re getting winning players with good makeups. They play the game the right way. I think these guys will fit what it is we’re doing.”
Admittedly, there’s a chance that neither Swisher nor Bourn will rescue his trade value enough for the Braves to get anything for them in 2016. But if nothing else, Atlanta is better off wagering on two guys with strong track records turning it around next season than it would have been wagering on one guy without a strong track record (Johnson) doing so.
If it works out, great. The Braves will then have two veterans on their hands whom they can deal for more controllable talent.
If it doesn’t work out? Oh well. At least Atlanta will still be getting that 2017 payroll flexibility no matter what.
It’s hard to say that the Braves have made a brilliant move. But since they’re shedding some future payroll while taking on a couple of potentially valuable reclamation projects, they’re at least making a worthwhile gamble.
This may be one of the stranger deals you’re ever going to see, but it’s a sensible one.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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