Put on your imaginary general manager hat for a moment (you know you have one) and ponder this tantalizing hypothetical: Matt Harvey of the New York Mets and the Washington Nationals’ Stephen Strasburg are both available for the taking.
Whom do you take?
There isn’t really a wrong answer. They’re two of the top young aces in baseball. And despite a few warts—largely related to injuries—they’re both studs you’d build a franchise around.
Still, as we peer past the forthcoming postseason and toward the offseason, it’s an intriguing question to ponder.
First, let’s get this out of the way: It’s entirely possible, maybe even probable, that Harvey and Strasburg won’t go anywhere this winter.
Strasburg won’t hit the market until 2017, assuming the Nationals don’t extend him first, and Harvey is under the Mets’ control through the 2018 season.
But both players have been the subject of trade speculation.
On Sept. 8, as the controversy surrounding Harvey’s innings limit was reaching critical mass, ESPN’s Buster Olney outlined the case for dealing the 26-year-old right-hander:
For Mets fans who have donned Batman masks and capes for Harvey’s starts, this is all very personal, because they believed he would lead the team’s push toward October. Now, he is apparently ready to sit out the most important games of the season for the sake of his long-term career. It’s a business decision, not personal.
The Mets should also make a business decision this winter: They should trade Harvey.
Since then, Harvey has made two strong starts, including a 6.2-inning, 97-pitch effort Sept. 26 that clinched the National League East for New York.
So you could argue he’s put at least part of the brouhaha behind him. And it sounds like he’s softening on the workload cap he once claimed was a doctor-decreed necessity, according to Adam Rubin of ESPN.com.
Certainly, the Mets aren’t thinking about anything right now except their first trip to the postseason since 2006. They’re hoping to make a deep run, and Harvey will play a key role.
If the Mets win it all and Harvey plows through October, forget about it. He’ll be in Queens for the foreseeable future.
But what if New York gets bounced early? And what if Harvey pitches only so-so? Then the door would be open, and the Mets would be wise to at least consider dangling him.
A rotation of Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz and Jonathon Niese, with Zack Wheeler possibly returning from Tommy John surgery at some point in 2016, should suffice.
And Harvey could bring back at least one impact bat to replace or supplant deadline acquisition Yoenis Cespedes, who may bolt via free agency. Ken Davidoff of the New York Post floated several interesting names, including San Francisco Giants shortstop Brandon Crawford and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez of the Colorado Rockies.
Unlike the Mets, the Nationals have no October glory to look forward to. Instead, they’re drowning in acrimony and infighting as their monumentally disappointing season limps across the finish line.
Still, a Strasburg trade is far from a sure thing. Starters Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister will both be free agents this winter. Trading Strasburg on top of that would create massive upheaval in a rotation that was the club’s backbone coming into 2015.
But the Nats have promising arms in the pipeline, including right-hander Lucas Giolito, their No. 1 prospect according to MLB.com.
And like Harvey, Strasburg would yield a haul of prospects or MLB-ready talent. The Nationals and Texas Rangers had “wide-ranging” discussions about the 27-year-old righty last offseason, Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reported, so we know the Nats are at least picking up the phone.
OK, now that we’ve established these trades could go down, let’s return to the original query: Whom do you go after?
There are plenty of parallels between the two. Both are power pitchers just entering their prime. Both shot out of the gate before succumbing to torn ulnar collateral ligaments and Tommy John surgery. They’ve each made All-Star teams, and both have finished in the top 10 in Cy Young balloting.
In terms of career numbers, Strasburg owns a 3.12 ERA with 894 strikeouts in 770.2 innings pitched, while Harvey boasts a 2.57 ERA with 438 strikeouts in 421 innings pitched. If you’re keeping score at home, that gives Strasburg an edge in the strikeouts-per-nine-innings department with a 10.4 mark compared to Harvey’s 9.4.
If you like WAR, Strasburg has amassed 13.5 in six seasons, while Harvey has 11.1 in three campaigns, per Baseball-Reference.
This year, overall, Harvey has a clear edge. His 2.80 ERA shines next to Strasburg’s 3.63, and he’s remained healthy while Strasburg has made multiple trips to the disabled list and battled ankle, neck and back issues.
Lately, however, Strasburg has thrown like the former No. 1 overall pick he is, pitching at least into the eighth inning, allowing three earned runs or fewer and posting double-digit strikeout totals in each of his last four starts.
While the Nationals crash and burn, Strasburg is rising from the ashes.
Potential suitors will be aware of his recent injury troubles and occasionally wobbly performance, but he’s put to rest any doubts that he can be one of the top arms in baseball.
“It’s the best I’ve seen in a couple of years,” Phillies second baseman Andres Blanco said after Strasburg twirled eight innings of no-run, one-hit, 14-strikeout ball against Philadelphia on Sept. 15, per MLB.com’s Bill Ladson. “I think most guys would agree with me. I don’t know, Nolan Ryan? A lot of fastballs, combined with [a] changeup and curveball? Pretty good.”
So now we come down to a question of price tag. If we stipulate that Harvey and Strasburg are equally awesome when healthy, the decision on whom to trade for hinges on who will offer the greater value.
At this point, clearly, Harvey would cost more. Yes, the innings-limit tempest damaged his reputation, but he’s moving away from that. And he’s already surpassed his supposedly prescribed 180-frame cap with no ill effects.
The biggest difference is team control. Strasburg would be a one-year rental, whereas a club could pencil Harvey into its rotation for three more seasons.
That’s a big deal. And while it will surely raise Harvey’s sticker shock, it also makes him a uniquely alluring asset—one who’s worth mortgaging the farm or offloading an All-Star-caliber major league player.
Even with this winter’s deep free-agent pitching class—headlined by David Price, Johnny Cueto and, likely, Zack Greinke—Harvey would attract a gaggle of motivated buyers.
So would Strasburg. That’s why I said upfront there is no wrong answer. If I’m forced to offer one, though, it’s Harvey, for the extra years and lack of post-Tommy John maladies.
Mets fans aren’t weighing this yet because of the playoffs, and Nats fans are too distracted by their team’s embarrassing implosion.
In a few months, though, we’ll all be reaching for our imaginary general manager caps. And some actual GMs should be doing some serious Strasburg-Harvey pondering of their own.
All statistics current as of Sept. 27 and courtesy of MLB.com unless otherwise noted.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com