Prizes are only as valuable as the people who covet them.
That is why the first month-plus of Major League Baseball’s offseason has been a slugfest for those who slug. Like wild and crazy Black Friday shoppers looking for the season’s hottest toy in a snug department-store aisle, baseball executives are doing all they can to lure the winter’s best bats.
The last three weeks have seen teams overpay for aging hitters, some of which can’t play the field, while the market for pitchers has been slow-played as seemingly everyone waits for ace Jon Lester to make a decision. But even for the few teams who miss on Lester, plenty of pitching options await on the free-agent and trade markets.
Again, a prize is more valuable when it’s scarce.
While Lester and other pitchers might have more action surrounding their names by the time the MLB Winter Meetings conclude—they start Sunday and end Thursday—the prize of the event will be an elite hitter. And since many of those have been taken off the board, Matt Kemp, the Los Angeles Dodgers’ new cleanup hitter, is left as the market’s top target.
The best hitters on the free-agent market are gone: Victor Martinez, Hanley Ramirez, Nelson Cruz, Pablo Sandoval, Yasmany Tomas, Torii Hunter, Russell Martin, Adam LaRoche and Nick Markakis. All of those guys, some of whom are considered coveted hitters only due to the game’s current offensive state, are off the board, leaving almost no impact bats remaining on the open market.
Teams still looking for significant offensive additions now have to turn to the trade market. While a guy like Justin Upton is available for an expensive return, he has just one year remaining before he is likely to tango with his first winter of free agency in 2015. The same can be said for Boston’s Yoenis Cespedes, now part of an outfield glut similar to the one in Los Angeles that makes Kemp available.
The Dodgers know they hold the prized option, and that is why they are holding firm on their asking price for Kemp, an MVP-caliber slugger when healthy.
Dodgers general manager Farhan Zaidi told Eric Stephen of True Blue LA last week:
It’s something we’re continuing to explore. If you look at the landscape of baseball right now, one of the things that is really scarce is offense right now, and we’re fortunate enough to have a surplus of really good offensive outfielders. Obviously there is going to be some demand and some interest in those guys, and we’re going to sort through those as they come through.
Zaidi’s comment was referring to not only Kemp, but also Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier. However, he was pretty much talking about only Kemp in the sense that there is virtually no market for Crawford or Ethier. Crawford is still a decent top-of-the-order hitter, but with three years and $62.25 million left on his contract, he’s virtually unmovable. Ethier has three years and $56 million remaining and was an afterthought last year after being relegated to a left-handed bat off the bench, making his market nonexistent.
That leaves Kemp as the team’s one attractive trade asset. He is owed $107 million over the next five seasons. Last year he hit .287/.346/.506 with a .852 OPS, 25 home runs and 89 RBIs. The last time he was healthy for a full season—2011—he was arguably the game’s best all-around player. And now, he finally seems completely healthy and ready to shine again.
Given his healthy production and position (likely right field), Kemp seems a better value than Sandoval, Ramirez and Cruz. Given his age—he will pay virtually all next season at age 30—he is a better bet than Martinez.
Only a few teams have been talked about in a Kemp deal. The Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres and Baltimore Orioles have at least had a talk with the Dodgers, but all have been turned off by the asking price. And if one of those teams, or another, wants the Dodgers to pick up a decent chunk of Kemp’s salary, the package of prospects might have to grow.
The Orioles are said to have scoffed at the Dodgers’ asking for one of Baltimore’s top young pitchers—Kevin Gausman or Dylan Bundy. Talks were said to have “not materialized into anything significant,” according to Eduardo A. Encina of The Baltimore Sun. However, the Orioles have now lost Cruz and Markakis since then, so talks could start again.
Baltimore is the defending American League East champion, but given what it has lost in the lineup and what the Red Sox and Blue Jays have done to bulk up, the Orioles might not be able to afford not replacing Cruz and Markakis with a quality slugger.
Another possibility by the time the Winter Meetings start, or end, is that the Dodgers land Lester with a last-minute push. If that happens, the team could be looking to trim payroll and lower its price on Kemp. Then a team might be willing to pay more of Kemp’s salary in return for sending back a lesser package of young players.
However, signing Lester would put the Dodgers in even more of a win-now situation than they are already in. And with Ramirez fleeing to Boston, the Dodgers might really need Kemp’s bat, which would explain why they are currently so staunch about the return and hesitant to pull the trigger for anything less. They are perfectly fine with keeping their No. 4 hitter, who was one of only four NL players to slug .500.
Kemp is the only hitter available now who can significantly affect a team’s lineup for more than one season. The Dodgers know this. So does everyone else. That is why he comes at a steep price.
At the Winter Meetings next week the Dodgers will find out just how much shoppers are willing to spend for their prized slugger.
Anthony Witrado covers Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. He spent the previous three seasons as the national baseball columnist at Sporting News, and four years before that as the Brewers beat writer for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.
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