For a terrifying moment Wednesday, the New York Mets fanbase held its collective breath. Yoenis Cespedes—the trade-deadline acquisition who jolted New York’s moribund offense and propelled the Amazins to a division title—was doubled over in agony, clutching his left hand.
It was a hit by pitch—in a post-clinch game against the woeful Philadelphia Phillies, no less—that could have tossed a sopping wet blanket on the Mets’ first playoff appearance since 2006.
Exhale, Mets nation. The X-rays were negative, and the diagnosis is a couple of bruised fingers and a bullet dodged.
Now, with that crisis averted, there’s a new pressing question: Will the Mets keep Cespedes past the postseason? And, more to the point, should they?
The second query seems ludicrously self-evident, considering Cespedes has been a savior since heading east from Detroit. In 54 games with the Mets, Cespedes owns a .946 OPS to go along with 17 home runs and 44 RBI.
Not coincidentally, a lineup that sputtered in the first half has scored the most runs in the National League since the All-Star break.
“What [Cespedes] is doing is amazing,” Mets veteran David Wright said of his new teammate, per Dan Martin of the New York Post. “The way that he single-handedly got us going and in every situation where there’s a big-time at-bat, he’s up there. And more often than not, he’s gotten a hit.”
Cespedes is the new king of Queens, in other words. Re-signing him this winter, when he’s due to hit the open market, appears to be a no-brainer from a practical and public-relations standpoint.
In reality, though, the Cespedes conundrum is a potential lose-lose for New York.
Let’s say the Mets go all-in and bring him back. Given the dearth of available bats and what Cespedes has accomplished down the stretch, you’ve got to figure he’ll command something in the neighborhood of the seven-year, $153 million deal the New York Yankees handed Jacoby Ellsbury in 2013.
Ellsbury was entering his age-30 season, as is Cespedes. And, if anything, the demand for power hitters has only increased in the intervening years.
It’s not that the Mets can’t possibly afford a deal on that scale. But it would take a significant bite out of a payroll that ranks No. 17 in the game. And it could hamper New York’s ability to keep its young, stellar pitching rotation intact as that group becomes more expensive, not to mention other burgeoning talent like first baseman Lucas Duda and catcher Travis d’Arnaud.
Tyler Kepner of the New York Times made the case for Cespedes as a pure rental shortly after the trade, pointing out that “the Mets have three other outfielders signed for 2016 and an aversion to the kind of lavish deal Cespedes will command.”
Kepner didn’t know what the Mets’ new weapon was about to do, but his point stands: Cespedes would be a major, potentially crippling salary commitment for New York. To take that leap, the Mets need to be reasonably certain he’ll keep producing at a high level.
That’s where things get even trickier.
Cespedes has never been an on-base guy, meaning he relies on power to maintain his value. And while he’s bashed his share of long balls in 2015, his fly-ball percentage (FB%) has hit a career low, while his ground-ball percentage (GB%) is at an all-time high.
That doesn’t mean the Cuban masher is doomed. But he is hitting fewer balls in the air than at any point since he arrived in the big leagues. Add the fact that Citi Field is the second-most pitcher-friendly yard in the NL, according to ESPN’s Park Factors statistic, and you have the makings of a regression as soon as next season and almost assuredly by the end of any long-term pact.
Cespedes isn’t perched at the edge of a cliff, ready to plunge off. Nor is his current output a complete mirage. But as a franchise that doesn’t boast bottomless pockets, the Mets should think long and hard before handing him a chips-all-in megadeal.
OK, so don’t re-sign him. Ride the current wave as far as it takes you, then wave a grateful goodbye. Sounds simple enough.
The problem is the fans may revolt.
Imagine Cespedes‘ bruised fingers heal in short order, and he resumes his hot-hitting ways, guiding New York on a deep playoff run—maybe all the way to the Fall Classic finish line. At that point, general manager Sandy Alderson would be essentially obligated to make a credible offer.
It’s been nearly a decade since the Mets were relevant. Now, at last, they’re the toast of New York, upstaging the playoff-bound Yankees.
Do they really want to jeopardize that goodwill by letting Cespedes walk into the arms of another suitor?
At the very least, we know the Mets and Cespedes recently tweaked his contract to make it easier for New York to re-sign him. So there’s intention, though the safe money is on Cespedes signing elsewhere because of, well, the money.
For now, the Mets are focused on the division series and, they hope, contests beyond. They’ll be relying on Cespedes to rake into autumn, beginning with a clash against the Los Angeles Dodgers and their pair of aces, Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw.
Soon enough, though, the NL East champs will need to make plans for next season. And a crucial part of that will be addressing the Yoenis Cespedes Question, with a capital “Q.”
The trouble is, like a lot of difficult questions, it may not have a correct answer.
All statistics current as of Oct. 1 and courtesy of MLB.com unless otherwise noted.
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