Almost from the moment Carlos Correa made his big league debut with the Houston Astros, he looked like the front-runner in the American League Rookie of the Year race. But the Minnesota Twins‘ Miguel Sano has muscled his way into the mix, and he could sprint ahead with a scalding September.
That word, “scalding,” certainly described Sano up until recently. The 22-year-old slugger tore through August, bashing seven doubles, nine home runs, scoring 18 times and collecting 26 RBI in 27 games, and he was named AL Rookie of the Month for his troubles.
Lately, Sano has hit a snag, striking out 11 times in 15 at-bats between Sept. 4 and Sept. 7.
He was out of the starting lineup Tuesday, and he might also miss Wednesday’s action as he takes a “mental break,” per Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press.
In addition to whatever’s going on between his ears, Sano is nursing a strained right hamstring, which helps explain the mini-slump. But it sounds like Twins skipper Paul Molitor plans to keep trotting out his young masher more often than not.
“We’ve had a couple different people look at the MRI,” Molitor said Sunday, per Berardino. “Generally people think we’re at a very minimal risk of doing something substantial here, as long as he plays intelligently.”
The Twins will need Sano’s bat if they hope to stay in the postseason hunt. Among players with at least 100 at-bats, Sano paces the club in slugging percentage (.574) and OPS (.961).
The Kansas City Royals have essentially put the AL Central out of reach, but entering play Wednesday, Minnesota, at 71-67, trailed the Texas Rangers by just 2.5 games for the second wild card.
Let’s say Sano shakes off, or successfully plays through, the hamstring issue. Imagine he catches fire again, rekindling his August output, and helps carry the Twins into October.
At that point, how do you deny him a Rookie of the Year nod?
Well, there is that Correa fellow.
Sure, the Twins are improbable contenders, the definition of a Cinderella story. But the ‘Stros are squeezing on some glass slippers of their own.
In fact, if the Twins secure a wild-card slot and Houston wins the AL West (at 75-64, they lead the Rangers by one game heading into Wednesday), the Astros would arguably be the bigger overachiever based on preseason expectations.
None of ESPN’s experts, for example, picked either team to make the playoffs. And if they were both equally discounted, an Astros division crown trumps a Twins wild card, at least by a little.
Of course, team performance is far from the only factor come awards time. Ultimately, Rookie of the Year is an individual honor.
So how do Sano and Correa stack up on the stat sheet? Let’s take a glance and throw in the numbers for the Cleveland Indians‘ Francisco Lindor, who also belongs in this discussion:
If you’re giving the award out today, it goes to Correa. He’s got more at-bats and a higher WAR than Sano, and he trumps Lindor in OPS.
And while Sano has logged the bulk of his time at designated hitter, Correa, like Lindor, plays shortstop, one of the most important defensive positions on the diamond.
“[Sano] should be definitely recognized,” MLB Network’s Harold Reynolds opined, “and I think he’s going to be somebody you have to reckon with. But I think Carlos Correa is going to win it, because of all the other things he does in a game.”
In fact, if we’re talking defense, Lindor gets an edge there. His eight defensive runs saved (DRS) rank fifth-best among big league shortstops, per FanGraphs, while Correa checks in at minus-one DRS.
The bottom line is that while Correa appears to be the leader in the clubhouse, this AL ROY scramble is far from settled.
That leaves the door open for Sano. Can he shove his way through?
There are reasons to raise a skeptical eyebrow other than the hamstring issue.
There’s Sano’s gaudy strikeout total, which stands at 88 in 195 at-bats. And he’s sporting an almost-assuredly unsustainable .415 batting average on balls in play.
On the other hand, consider the fact that this is a kid who missed the entire 2014 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery on his right elbow.
Then think about what he’s already accomplished since his early-July MLB call-up after never playing an inning above Double-A.
Then watch this monstrous hack, which resulted in quite possibly the most impressive double you’ll ever witness:
Are you not convinced? Do you seriously doubt Sano can go on another tear, chewing through opposing pitchers like a ripe Honeycrisp apple (that’s the state fruit of Minnesota, in case you didn’t know)?
If you’re laying down your college tuition or second mortgage, the safe money is still on Correa to nab ROY. Again, he plays a premium defensive position, and he served a reminder of what he can do with the lumber on Monday, launching a three-run homer and tallying four RBI in a 10-9 loss to the Oakland A’s. And Lindor is also lurking.
Sano, however, has a shot. And, fittingly, the fortunes of the underdog Twins and their budding basher are inextricably linked as we enter the stretch run.
Will the Twins taste October? Will Sano’s trophy case get heavier? The next few weeks will tell the tale.
And no matter the outcome, it’ll be a fascinating story to follow.
All standings and statistics current as of Sept. 8 and courtesy of MLB.com unless otherwise noted.
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