The Tampa Bay Rays and Chicago Cubs made a surprising trade Thursday when the Rays agreed to send pitcher Matt Garza, outfielder Fernando Perez and a minor league pitcher to the Cubs for a package of prospects including pitcher Chris Archer, outfielders Brandon Guyer and Sam Fuld, catcher Robinson Chirinos and shortstop Hak-Ju Lee. According to most baseball critics, the Rays received a great package for Garza, probably one that was an overpay for the Cubs. I tend to agree, and I’ll make a bold statement:
The Tampa Bay Rays ended up with the best pitcher in the deal—Chris Archer.
Garza, 27, was originally drafted by the Minnesota Twins and traded to the Rays after the 2007 season. Though he’s young and hasn’t been in the the league for all that long, Garza has already assembled quite a list of accolades, including winning the 2008 ALCS MVP award and no-hitting the Detroit Tigers in 2010. However, his career numbers aren’t as impressive as they appear.
Garza was extremely durable in 2010, making 32 starts for the Rays and logging 204.2 innings—his second straight season with more than 200 innings. He posted a 15-10 record, with 3.91 ERA, as the staff’s ace by committee. He struck out close to seven batters and walked just under three per nine innings. He also posted a few unimpressive numbers, including a 1.25 WHIP and a 1.23 home run per nine rate, one of the worst in baseball.
The Cubs acquired Garza with the hope of contending in 2011, but they may be in for a rather unpleasant surprise. According to most baseball experts, Garza won’t transition well into the NL Central, specifically, into Wrigley Field. Throughout most of his career, he has been known as a fly ball pitcher and has posted weak ground ball rates in each of the last three seasons—not a good sign for a pitcher who is about to take his talents to one of the league’s most notorious, hitter-friendly parks.
Advanced Sabermetrics aren’t particularly fond of Garza either. In 2010, he posted a 4.42 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), which is much worse than what his 3.91 ERA suggests. Taking his 2010 season a step further, Garza’s Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP), which adjusts a pitcher’s ERA to suit the ballpark, was 4.51.
While the Cubs may have a potential pitching question mark on their hands, the Rays struck gold.
In acquiring Archer, the Rays not only effectively replaced Garza for the long term, but acquired the best pitcher in the deal. Archer, 22, was originally drafted by the Cleveland Indians in the 2006 Amateur Draft. The Cubs acquired the struggling right hander in exchange for super utility player, Mark DeRosa, and the Cubs have watched him rise up their rankings since.
Prior to the 2010 season, Archer couldn’t even crack the Cubs’ top 10 prospects, according to Baseball America. By the 2011 season though, he was ranked No. 1. Baseball America stated he had the best fastball and slider in the Cubs’ system, and the man once projected as a bottom-of-the-rotation or bullpen arm had suddenly turned into a top-of-the-rotation talent.
Archer split time between the Cubs’ minor league affiliates in 2010, impressing at both levels. His combined numbers totaled a 15-3 record, with a combined ERA of 2.33. With the Cubs’ A+ affiliate, Archer used his tremendous fastball/slider combo to strike out more than 10 batters and walking just over three per nine innings. Hitters at this level couldn’t even crack the Mendoza Line against him, batting just .196. He had nothing left to prove at this level, and the Cubs promoted him to AA.
He was equally impressive against tougher hitters, striking out close to nine batters per nine innings at the AA level. Though he struggled with his control, walking five batters per nine innings, he was practically unhittable; AA batters managed to hit just .209 against him. He surrendered six total home runs on both levels combined and surrendered just 14 earned runs at AA.
Archer’s “stuff” has never been questioned. He features a plus fastball with great lateral movement that sits comfortably between 89-93 mph and has the ability to touch 95 mph on the radar gun. He also boasts a circle-changeup that has the potential to become another plus pitch, but will need some work. His greatest pitch has always been his slider, which sometimes is confused for a curveball because of its tremendous movement. He has good control over all three of these pitches, and from the time he was drafted in 2006 to the time he was traded in 2011, all three have developed nicely.
What is most interesting is Archer will join a Tampa Bay Rays’ farm system that already boasts a number of talented top-of-the-rotation arms in Wade Davis, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, Jake McGee, Alex Torres, Alex Colome and Jake Thompson. Though a few of these guys, most notably McGee, are more likely to wind up in the bullpen, the Rays have built a strong farm system with some of the best pitching in baseball. Take into consideration that the Rays’ 2014 projected pitching staff, as per Baseball America, now features a rotation of David Price, Hellickson, Moore, Jeff Niemann and Davis, with McGee as the team’s closer. It’s clear just how deep the Rays’ pitching staff is, and it’s very possible one of these top prospects will have to move over and watch Archer pass them.
Many baseball critics will compare this deal “in the long run,” but the Rays improved their team both now and in the future. Moving an overrated Garza out of the American League will immediately make room in the rotation for a much more talented pitcher in Hellickson. He should provide more Wins Above Replacement (WAR) than Garza at a cheaper salary. In the future, Archer will develop into a better starter than Garza, making this deal a complete steal for the Rays.
The bottom line is, if the Rays acquired Archer for Garza straight up, they still would have won this deal.
Everything else is 100% profit.
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