The Chicago Cubs have had an underrated offseason, so how long will it take them to return to contention? The franchise is now on the right track but it will take two to three years for the Cubs to allow their best prospects to mature while adding enough talent to contend for the World Series.
To contend for the World Series, a team needs a well-balanced lineup with elite power in the middle, a true leadoff hitter and a mix of left- and right-handed bats. The Cubs moved in the right direction this offseason. They added intriguing left-handed third baseman Ian Stewart, a former first-round pick and top prospect for the Colorado Rockies who excelled in 2010. If Stewart rebounds, he will provide the left-handed power that the Cubs have missed for years.
More important, they traded for Anthony Rizzo, a balanced, left-handed power hitter and their future star first baseman. Theo Epstein knows Stewart is a wild card but he is banking on Rizzo to be the team’s left-handed hitter in the middle of the lineup.
Combined with center field prospect Brett Jackson, who has both power and speed but needs to cut down on his strikeouts, and star shortstop Starlin Castro, the Cubs have great hitters at the three-four-five spots in their lineup. But to contend they will need to add a third baseman who can hit sixth and at least one powerful outfielder.
The Cubs already have internal answers at third base: Stewart will get a shot, former top prospect Josh Vitters showed strong signs of development late in 2011 and young Jeimer Candelario could be the franchise’s long-term solution at the position.
At second, future star Javier Baez is being groomed for the position, while Stewart could switch positions or Barney could become a solid regular.
In the outfield, the team could accelerate their retooling process by adding Cuban star Yoenis Cespedes or prospect Jorge Soler (or both, though that is unlikely) or wait for highly-touted prospects Dan Vogelbach, Matt Szcur and Reggie Golden to mature and develop.
By 2014, the Cubs could feature Rizzo at first base, Baez at second, Stewart or Vitters at third, Soto at catcher (if they don’t find a replacement) and an outfield of Jackson, Cespedes or Soler, and Szcur, Vogelbach or Golden. That’s not exactly a contending lineup, and many prospects don’t pan out, but it is certainly a good base of young talent that could become a World Series favorite with a few savvy trades and a top free-agent acquisition.
World Series contenders also need elite pitching. The best teams usually have a true ace, at least two top-of-the-rotation caliber starters, and several more pitchers capable of 200 innings and an ERA under 4.0.
The Cubs lack several of those needed pieces but added several intriguing arms this offseason. Holdover Matt Garza is a No. 2 starter in his prime, an arm who could help anchor an elite staff if he is not traded for top prospects. Travis Wood, who was added in the Sean Marshall trade, is left-handed and has No. 3 starter upside. Chris Volstad is still 25, talented and could turn the corner with a change of scenery. Prospects Trey McNutt and Hayden Simpson could become top-of-the-rotation starters if they rebound from disastrous minor league seasons.
The Cubs also added high-upside starter Dillon Maples in the 2011 draft and signed Cuban star Gerardo Concepcion, so their stockpile of non-ace caliber pitches is actually quite strong. As for that ace, there is no one within the Cubs system capable of becoming a true No. 1 starter, which means the team should look to sign Cole Hamels, Zach Greinke or Matt Cain next year. If they managed a true coup and signed more than one (possible considering their low 2013 payroll), they would be looking at an elite contending rotation.
So how close are the Cubs? After a savvy offseason where they rooted out dysfunction (Carlos Zambrano) and added intriguing talent, they are closer. But the franchise remains far away from the World Series. The Cubs will need their best prospects to develop to their potential over the next two to three years while they add several more elite players to become true World Series contenders.
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