Here in southern New England, I can sense a growing angst as one after another of the top-name closers signs deals with teams other than the Boston Red Sox.
In my opinion, GM Ben Cherington is doing the right thing by resisting the impulse to jump into a bidding war to fill the void left by the departure of Jonathan Papelbon.
There’s a buyer’s market for closers this year, and the recent spate of closer signings does little to change that.
Yes, there are now four fewer closers on the market, but just as importantly, there’s four fewer buyers in the market as well. The Philadelphia Phillies (Papelbon), Texas Rangers (Joe Nathan), Kansas City Royals (Jonathan Broxton) and Miami Marlins (Heath Bell) are now out of the picture. And there is still a gaggle of decent relief arms out there.
Let’s not forget that the Red Sox still have an internal option in the forgotten Bobby Jenks, who had closing success elsewhere in his career before signing a two-year, $12 million contract with the Red Sox in December, 2010.
His 2011 season went down the drain due to a back problem and a potentially dangerous pulmonary embolism, diagnosed when he underwent a pre-surgery exam for the operation on his back. There is every reason to believe that he has as much of a chance as other rehabbing pitchers, such as Broxton.
As I wrote two weeks ago, “The longer [the Red Sox] wait, the clearer the picture will be. Sure, they may lose out on an option or two, but I’ll wager that any teams who sign free-agent closers in the next few weeks will overpay by acting in haste.”
There’s a sense out there that the Phillies went overboard by giving their Papelbon $50 million on a four-year deal.
Joe Nathan is another injury-risk closer who seems to have gotten an inflated contract ($14 million guaranteed over the next two years, with a vesting option in the third year for another $9 million). I think the Rangers were over-anxious to move Neftali Feliz to the starting rotation.
Nathan, now 37, underwent Tommy John surgery and missed the entire 2010 season. According to Ben Nicholson-Smith of mlbtraderumors.com, his average fastball velocity dropped to 92.3 mph in 2011 after sitting in the 93-95 mph range from 2002-09.
And no one should be jumping off the Tobin Bridge because the Marlins signed Heath Bell. They are paying him $27 million over three years with a fourth-year vesting option for another $9 million. While Bell did well in San Diego, temper the rave reviews with the fact that Petco Park is the most pitcher-friendly stadium in MLB.
How well would he have transitioned to the friendly confines of Fenway? Combine that concern with a big falloff in his strikeout numbers last year, and I’m not surprised the Red Sox did not strongly pursue him.
The one deal that does seem to make sense is the Royals’ signing of Jonathan Broxton to a one-year deal for $4 million plus incentives.
Broxton pitched fewer than 13 innings in 2011 with a 5.68 ERA. He underwent arthroscopic elbow surgery in September, but if he can regain his earlier form he will be a steal for Kansas City.
Closers are a fickle bunch, as history shows. With few exceptions, they are like shooting stars; they burn brightly for a couple of years, and then fizzle out.
Given how hard they usually throw, injuries are a factor. Consider the four closers who signed long-term deals in the past six years or so: Billy Wagner signed a four-year deal with the Mets, and B.J. Ryan signed a five-year contract with Toronto; Joe Nathan and Francisco Cordero signed four-year deals in excess of $45 million with the Twins and Reds respectively.
Only Cordero escaped major injury during the life of his contract.
Also, after a couple of years on the same team, the rest of the league begins to catch up. Scouting reports, plus increased hitter familiarity with a two-pitch hurler can make for declining results.
Fortunately, GM Cherington is also leery of long-term contracts for relievers—which is one of the reasons he did not compete with the Phillies for Papelbon.
When asked his position on the length of deals for bullpen arms, he replied, “The shorter, the better.”
The lesson that can be drawn from the Papelbon, Nathan and Bell signings is that Cherington will probably have to overpay if he’s in a hurry to sign a free-agent closer.
The Red Sox would be better off to play the waiting game, or find a closer (such as Huston Street or Andrew Bailey) via trade.
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