The MLB MVP races don’t have the luster of recent memory, given only a handful of candidates were a part of a pennant race despite their teams being rich with high expectations fueled by remarkable talent.
It’s far less enticing than the Cy Young Award conversation where in the National League, there are three worthy winners and in the American League, there is a pair of southpaws that led their teams to snap lengthy playoff droughts.
Perhaps a slight stride in the 2015 MVP hunt is that there appears to be more variety among vying candidates. Last year, Mike Trout ran away as the unanimous AL winner and Clayton Kershaw got the NL nod with a dominating 21-3 record while claiming his fourth-straight ERA title.
The MVP awards—along with the Cy Young, Rookie and Manager of the Year honors—are administered by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America.
The BBWAA selects two members recommended by the local chapter chairman from each MLB city for each award, tallying 30 total votes. There is no crossover—meaning AL writers vote only for that league award, and same for the NL—and in smaller markets, some members may vote for multiple awards, per the BBWAA.
With the MVP announcement slated for Nov. 19, here is a look at the candidates and predictions.
American League
Trout turned in another phenomenal year, but the reigning MVP may be hindered by his team’s overall struggles and a breakout season from Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson.
Donaldson scored 13.6 percent of Toronto’s MLB-best 891 runs this season, led the AL with 123 RBI and 352 total bases, and tied with Trout for third with 41 homers. He was undoubtedly the best bat in a Blue Jays lineup filled with power and consistency.
Donaldson was an exceptional hitter and defender in four seasons with the Oakland A’s—he was an All-Star in 2014—before being traded last offseason. But his ascension to MVP favorite came at a rapid rate and as somewhat of a surprise given the A’s were willing to let him go in part of an overall rebuild.
The third baseman could become the first player to win MVP following an offseason trade since the Detroit Tigers’ Willie Hernandez in 1984, according to JP Morosi of FOX Sports.
Donaldson’s peers voted him the overwhelming winner in the Sporting News MLB Player of the Year honors, determined from 387 player votes—of which 150 were for Donaldson. Trout finished sixth with 12 votes.
His Los Angeles Angels were 14-1 odds to win the World Series this spring, per Odds Shark, sixth among the majors after winning 98 games the year prior. They would’ve assuredly been worse without the versatile outfielder, as only two teammates had a FanGraphs WAR of 2.0, the mark of an average position player. Trout’s 9.0 topped the AL with Donaldson second at 8.7.
Handcuffing the five-tool Trout for his team’s struggles might not be fair—and it defies BBWAA protocol—but that’s not why Trout shouldn’t win. It’s because Donaldson was simply the better player, who also happened to play on a better team.
Donaldson winning MVP would leave Trout the runner-up for the third time in his fourth full MLB season, but he’s only 24, is the face of baseball and will assuredly contend for the honor in many years to come.
Prediction: Josh Donaldson
National League
The NL MVP race isn’t nearly as close or varied, with the Washington Nationals’ Bryce Harper the clear favorite despite his team failing to reach the postseason as unanimous preseason World Series favorites, per Odds Shark.
Harper blasted a league-high 42 homers and was the batting title bridesmaid with a .330 average. The former first overall draft pick finally lived up to his prodigy pedigree after three seasons of above-average, but not necessarily remarkable, performances forecasted when he entered the league, as Eddie Matz of indicated:
Harper hasn’t had a bad season since he came to the majors, but this is the first year many feel he has really lived up to his superstar potential. Part of that is patience, he says, sure. But a bigger part is that, for the first time, he has been able to play an entire season.
Harper fulfilled his preseason goal of playing at least 150 games—he reached a career-high 153—in large part to baserunning and defensive discipline. And his presence benefited the Nationals greatly, as he led the majors with a 9.5 WAR, per FanGraphs.
His competition for the award doesn’t seem as stiff as others’ in years past, either.
There is a trio of starting pitchers—Jake Arrieta, Zack Greinke and Kershaw—each worthy of the Cy Young Award, but they probably won’t challenge Harper given the writers awarded Kershaw in a once-in-a-generation selection a year ago when he became the first NL MVP pitcher since Bob Gibson in 1968.
Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, Chicago Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo and Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado each had exceptional seasons, but none quite reached Harper’s echelon. Rizzo was the only one among that trio to reach the postseason.
Should writers select Harper, he would be the first NL MVP on a non-playoff team since Albert Pujols won in 2008 with the St. Louis Cardinals. In total, six have won the award since MLB expanded its playoffs in 1994 to incorporate the League Division Series, according to Dayn Perry of CBS Sports.
And per BBWAA protocol, the performances of Harper’s teammates shouldn’t be a factor in determining the award.
Prediction: Bryce Harper
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