Making the MLB playoffs is an impressive accomplishment, but with a wild-card berth, the whole year can come crashing down with just one game.
The Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs have two of the best records in baseball, though neither was better than the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Central. This means only one team will be able to advance to the divisional series. In the American League, both the New York Yankees and Houston Astros defied preseason expectations to get to this point, but neither wants to settle for an early exit.
On the plus side, all four teams can be encouraged by the fact that both World Series representatives last season—the Kansas City Royals and San Francisco Giants—came from the wild-card round. It remains to be seen how far these teams can go, but they have to worry about surviving the winner-takes-all battles first. Here is a look at what to expect in each game.
American League Wild Card Game
Matchup: Houston Astros at New York Yankees
When: Tuesday, Oct. 6, at 8 p.m. ET
Where: Yankee Stadium, the Bronx, New York
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: WatchESPN
Pitching Battle: Dallas Keuchel (Astros) vs. Masahiro Tanaka (Yankees)
Two years ago, the Astros had the worst record in baseball by a wide margin, finishing at 51-111. The next season was better, but the team’s 70-92 record still tied for the fourth worst in the majors. That’s what made 2015 such a surprise, as the young roster helped lead a rapid transformation with an 86-76 record.
ESPN.com’s Keith Law joked about a twist on a common chant within locker rooms:
The Astros lineup is so young that 25-year-old Jose Altuve has become one of the veteran leaders on the roster, while 21-year-old Carlos Correa has been arguably the team’s best hitter since reaching the majors. Houston’s players are talented and confident, and they believe they can do anything.
While one might think the youth would be a disadvantage in an intimidating environment like Yankee Stadium against a storied franchise, general manager Jeff Luhnow believes it could be a positive, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today:
Every kid grows up dreaming of having that magical moment at Yankee Stadium. To play a wild card game there, it’s a script you can’t write. We have a chance to beat them. These guys are young, they’re energetic, they can’t be stopped.
Hopefully, they’ll be making a movie about this one day.
One player who has proved himself against the Yankees this year is starting pitcher Dallas Keuchel. He made two starts against New York this season—one at home and one on the road—and came through with 16 shutout innings, allowing only nine hits with a 21-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Meanwhile, the Yankees were fading in the second half of the season. After August 1, they were under .500 with a 29-31 record. They do have one of the best offenses in baseball, but it is also heavy on left-handers who could struggle against Keuchel, who allowed only a .461 OPS against lefties, per Baseball-Reference.com, in the regular season.
With the Astros having plenty of power hitters who can take advantage of Masahiro Tanaka‘s tendency to give up the long ball (25 home runs allowed in 24 starts), Houston should go into New York and pull off the road win.
Prediction: Astros win 7-2.
National League Wild Card Game
Matchup: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates
When: Wednesday, Oct. 7, at 8 p.m. ET
Where: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
TV: TBS
Live Stream: TBS.com
Pitching Battle: Jake Arrieta (Cubs) vs. Gerrit Cole (Pirates)
The Pirates had home-field advantage for the NL Wild Card Game last season and fell short with Edinson Volquez on the mound. Gerrit Cole is a better ace and should provide more confidence for the hometown fans.
Of course, the bigger issue last year was running into the juggernaut that was Madison Bumgarner. On the plus side, the Giants didn’t make the playoffs this season (it is an odd-numbered year, after all). Unfortunately, the matchup against Jake Arrieta might be a tougher one.
The National League Cy Young Award might come down to a three-way race between Arrieta, Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw, but no one was better in the second half of the year than Arrieta.
Ace of MLB Stats put Arrieta‘s numbers into historical perspective:
He got even better as the year went on, per Jon Heyman of CBS Sports:
Chicago set a few historic marks of its own this year, especially at the end of the season:
The red-hot squad has a deep lineup of young hitters who can do damage, beginning with corner infielders Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant. Considering that they also have the best road record in baseball (48-33), the Cubs have what it takes to get to Cole and hold on for a road victory.
Pittsburgh does have an outstanding team from top to bottom, starting with one of the best outfield groups in the majors with Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco.
The team’s pitching has also been consistently excellent all year, and the Pittsburgh bullpen had the best ERA (2.67) in the majors, per ESPN.com. If they get past this game, the Pirates have a legitimate chance to make a deep run and win the World Series.
However, this single-game matchup does not bode well for the hometown team, and it could lead to a devastating loss for the 98-win Pirates.
Prediction: Cubs win 2-0.
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