Prior to the 2014 MLB season, hardly anyone would have predicted the Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Orioles to be playing for the American League pennant. Now, just four wins separate both teams from the World Series.
How big is Kansas City’s run so far? So huge that the Google search for “Royals” now comes up with more results about Kansas City than Lorde. That’s what a run can do for a team with just four postseason wins.
For Baltimore, it’s facing a team coming off a dominant four-game playoff winning streak and a sweep of the Los Angeles Angels. Even against the gritty Royals, the Orioles have confidence after downing three straight Cy Young winners and the Detroit Tigers.
With Game 1 set to begin Friday night, below is the full schedule and prediction for the American League Championship Series.
ALCS Prediction
When the postseason gets underway, pitching is one of the most crucial components to making a deep run. Both the Orioles and Royals were able to contain potent lineups in the division series, but it’s Kansas City that has the more complete rotation.
The one man at the top is none other than James Shields. Since acquiring Big Game James prior to the 2013 season, he has produced stellar starts nearly every time he’s toed the rubber.
James, who will be the starter in Game 1, according to Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star (h/t Mike Axisa of CBSSports.com), went six innings against the Angels in Game 3 of the ALDS, surrendering just two runs on six hits with six strikeouts. More impressively, the bullpen behind him can shut down even high-powered lineups, per MLB Stat of the Day:
If Shields, Yordano Ventura or any other starter falters, the bullpen will be there to pick them up in this series. Equipped with solid arms like Wade Davis and Greg Holland, Kansas City has a massive advantage at the end of games.
On the other side, the Orioles pitching staff is often overlooked in the American League. But after limiting the Tigers to three runs or fewer in two games, they were able to make a statement in the division series.
Chris Tillman and Bud Norris were strong on the mound in Games 1 and 3, respectively, giving Baltimore a chance to pull off two wins. Catcher Caleb Joseph spoke about his battery mates, per Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com:
We know our starters are really good, and they know they’re really good. They’ve really carried us for a long time now. They’re a close-knit group and they do certain things that I know a lot of other teams don’t do. They’re very into each other’s work. They participate in each others’ bullpens and stuff like that. It’s one of the small things that people don’t see behind the lights that’s helped keep them together. If they give us quality starts, we like our chances.
Along with the stout staffs, both teams also have plenty of pop in the lineup. But one man with plenty of experience in the postseason might be the difference for the Orioles in this matchup.
Nelson Cruz has been one of the best playoff power hitters in the MLB over the last several seasons, proving that point again with two homers in the ALDS. ESPN Stats & Info puts his recent numbers in perspective:
Currently, Cruz is tied with Carlos Beltran for ninth all time in postseason homers. With just two more dingers against the Royals, he would move into a tie with Reggie Jackson and Mickey Mantle for fifth—pretty elite company to say the least.
All things equal, the Orioles lineup will be the difference-maker in this series. Both franchises have proven they can step up in clutch situations, but Baltimore simply has more firepower with Cruz, Nick Markakis and Adam Jones at the plate.
Prediction: Orioles win in six games.
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