The San Francisco Giants will ride the momentum from a pennant-winning, walk-off home run into the 2014 World Series against the scrappy Kansas City Royals, a matchup of Wild Card teams that few would have predicted at the beginning of this year’s MLB playoffs.
First baseman/outfielder Travis Ishikawa’s ninth-inning, three-run homer in Game 5 of the NLCS against the St. Louis Cardinals sent the Giants to the final round just a day after the Royals completed a convincing sweep of the Baltimore Orioles in the ALCS.
Both teams get a much-needed weekend break to rest up and prepare for what should be a scrappy, hard-fought series. For those who can’t afford to miss a minute of the Fall Classic, here is the schedule for Game 1, followed by some predictions on the outcome of the series.
World Series Prediction
At first glance, the Royals certainly appear to be the team of destiny here. Kansas City has rarely risen above mediocrity in the 29 years since it last won the World Series. The 2014 iteration of the Royals appear to be hellbent on erasing nearly three decades of futility. They’ve won all eight of their postseason contests, including four victories in extra innings.
It’s a team predicated on speed, defense, an airtight bullpen and a special blend of team chemistry that has engendered a sense of self-belief from the biggest star to the last man on the bench.
However, if we dial it back to the preseason and take a look at some expert predictions, it’s the Giants who may be the real underdog here. None of the 44 ESPN contributors listed here picked the Giants to win the pennant before the season began, per ESPN.com. The “nobody-believes-in-us” card is definitely part of San Francisco’s stacked deck.
Royals manager Ned Yost acknowledged the similarities between both teams. “They’re a lot like us. They’re a team that scraps ballgames out. They’ve got great pitching, their bullpen’s dynamic. Their defense is very solid. It’s gonna be a good series,” he said, via MLB.com’s Dick Kaegel.
Kansas City’s outstanding defense should come up big once again in this series and back up a strong cadre of starting pitchers in James Shields, Jason Vargas, Yordano Ventura and Jeremy Guthrie.
The outfield is especially tough to play against. ALCS MVP Lorenzo Cain, Alex Gordon, Nori Aoki and specialist Jarrod Dyson are nightmare fuel for fly-ball hitters. NBC Sports’ Aaron Gleeman relays just how much better their play has been this season than the 29 other teams in the MLB:
The Giants starters may not have an otherworldly defense backing up, but they do have plenty of experience. NLCS MVP Madison Bumgarner has a career-postseason ERA of 2.67 in 67.1 innings pitched, per Baseball-Reference.com. Tim Hudson has playoff-pitching experience for both AL and NL squads, while Jake Peavy boasts a career 3.53 ERA over 13 seasons.
Bumgarner faltered a bit in Game 5 of the NLCS, giving up three runs in eight innings, and the Royals should be able to scrape out some early advantages in this series thanks to their defense and baserunning abilities, although Giants catcher Buster Posey could limit the damage here. Building on those (potential) advantages will be another story entirely.
Any group of cardiac kids needs to conjure up some instant offense. The Royals, who finished dead last in home runs in the regular season, have done that job exceedingly well in the postseason. They have eight round-trippers in as many games, with third baseman Mike Moustakas leading the way with four of his own.
The boom times could continue, as Giants starting pitchers gave up big hits quite often during the regular season. Bumgarner gave up 21 homers this season, while Ryan Vogelsong allowed 18, per ESPN.com.
The Giants, on the other hand, have hit just five dingers in 10 games, with three of those coming in the pennant-clinching Game 5. Perhaps it’s the beginning of an upswing in power, but the star players one would expect to hit the big home runs—such as Posey and Pablo Sandoval—have come up short in the power department this postseason.
Both team’s bullpens have been absolutely stellar in the postseason, but the Giants have the advantage here. Kelvin Herrera and Greg Holland have 1.08 and 1.13 ERAs, respectively, for the Royals, but even those minuscule numbers pale in comparison to the Giants’ ability to turn games into six-inning contests.
Lefty reliever Jeremy Affeldt, Yusmeiro Petit and closer Santiago Casilla have combined to pitch 22 innings in the playoffs without giving up a single run. ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark noted Casilla‘s stuff has been especially nasty since September:
This should allow the Giants to call upon their large supporting cast to come up with big hits and steal a game or two late.
The Royals may not have quite as many chances to come up with big hits and steals in the late innings; quick starts will be the key to the series for the Royals. It’s tough to parse out the differences between these two scrappy teams, neither of whom hit the 90-win mark in the regular season.
The Royals have the home-field advantage, and that could truly be a difference-maker here. They did sweep the Giants during the regular season, but that’s immaterial at this point. There have been so many unlikely heroes, brave comebacks and clutch performances from both teams that it should come down to the team that makes fewer mistakes in the field—maybe.
It’s going to be a brutal series for fans emotionally invested in the outcome. Eventually, the fans of the royal-blue heroes will reach the promised land.
Prediction: Royals win in seven games
Stats courtesy of MLB.com unless otherwise noted.
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