If you were looking for a closely contested LCS, well, sorry about your luck. The Mets and Royals have each raced out to 2-0 leads in their respective series, sweeping home contests while putting the Cubs and Blue Jays’ backs against the proverbial wall.
It’s a stark change to the competitive LDS, which saw three of the four series go to a deciding fifth game. Although Toronto and Chicago have a chance to flip the script upon their return home, teams ahead 2-0 have gone on to win best-of-seven series 78 percent of the time, per Yahoo Sports. A comeback hasn’t happened in more than a half-decade.
That’s…not promising!
Nevertheless, it’s still worth checking in on both series and assessing the chances of a comeback.
ALCS: Royals Lead Blue Jays, 2-0
The Royals couldn’t possibly have envisioned the first two games going any better. Despite not having ace Johnny Cueto at their disposal, they’ve held Toronto to just three runs. All of those came in Game 2, when the Blue Jays opened up a 3-0 lead before a disastrous five-run seventh inning flipped the script and gave Kansas City a 2-0 series lead.
“We know that this club is capable of getting on a run and putting together two or three or four wins in a row,” Royals manager Ned Yost said, per Chris Fickett of the Kansas City Star. “You have to keep your guard up.”
The Royals are one win away from setting the record for most consecutive wins in LCS history. They’ve won nine straight dating back to their 1985 World Series run; they won the final three games of that series and swept the Baltimore Orioles in last season’s ALCS.
Even hitting the road, the Royals have to feel good about their chances in Game 3. Cueto is scheduled to start against 24-year-old Marcus Stroman, who appeared in only four games during the regular season and has 30 MLB appearances to his name. Stroman‘s been brilliant since his return from injury, posting a 1.67 ERA in four regular-season starts and giving up five runs in 13 innings during Toronto’s ALDS win over the Rangers.
Still, the resume discrepancy here is pretty large. Cueto‘s been one of baseball’s best pitchers over the last half-decade, a lock to land a nine-figure contract this winter and the Royals’ prized midseason acquisition. He wasn’t up for the task for most of the second half of the regular season but has come back in a big way in October. The Royals won both of Cueto‘s starts in the ALDS against Houston, and he appears to be rounding into mental form.
“Thank God the staff gave me the opportunity to pitch (Game 5),” Cueto said, per Doug Padilla of ESPN.com. “As far as the confidence, I’ve never lost confidence. That was a game I was scheduled to pitch and that was a game we needed to win as an organization and as a team. Thank God it worked out.”
Toronto will have its fingers crossed that the inconsistent Cueto of the regular season shows up. If he does, the Blue Jays bats can finally awaken and get themselves out to an early lead to calm Stroman‘s nerves. Given the way the first two games went, we’re all better off banking on Cueto‘s experience.
NLCS: Mets Lead Cubs, 2-0
Speaking of dormant bats. The Cubs, who spent the regular season grooming a group of young power hitters for this very moment, have gone quiet. They’re down 2-0 thanks to only scoring three runs through the first two games of the NLCS, only recording a grand total of five hits in each game.
“Our guys are fine,” manager Joe Maddon said, per Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. “They pitched well and they beat us. We only scored three runs in the two games. That’s hard to win. But we have so much offensive talent and I believe in our guys.”
Putting it mildly: The pitching matchup for Game 3 does not favor Maddon‘s faith. The Cubs, having already watched aces Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta go down, will start Kyle Hendricks. The 25-year-old went 8-7 with a 3.95 ERA during the regular season but lasted only 4.2 innings in his postseason debut against St. Louis.
He’ll go up against Jacob DeGrom, who has been mowing fools down all season. DeGrom took Games 1 and 5 against the Dodgers, besting Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke in the same series. An outside Cy Young contender for most of the regular season, DeGrom‘s now in a position to all but clinch a World Series berth for a Mets team no one expected to be here in April.
“When you’re throwing that hard and hitting your spots, there’s not a lot you can do,” Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo said, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com. “It’s the way it’s going for them right now. Maybe the day off will cool them off.”
There’s not much to indicate things are going to change anytime soon, either. DeGrom vs. Hendricks is a massive advantage for New York. Getting to 3-0 would be as close to a mortal lock in the Mets’ favor as possible, though the presence of Theo Epstein and other former members of the Boston Red Sox brass will keep some hope alive in Chicago.
Basically, everything hinges on Game 3. The Mets have an ace. The Cubs have a perfectly fine rotation arm. There have been bigger upsets in the past, but the Amazins are probably heading to the World Series.
Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com