The 2015 MLB playoff picture is coming into focus, with the relevant squads and MLB as a whole just wrapping up their final series of the regular season.
There are 10 spots for playoff teams in the MLB. Nine of those are already taken. The only unknown is the last American League wild-card spot. Houston is in the driver’s seat, closely followed by the Los Angeles Angels and Minnesota Twins (the New York Yankees have the other AL wild-card spot wrapped up).
However, there are still home-field advantages to be decided up to the World Series—which belongs to the AL after its win in the Midsummer Classic—as well as a division crown. With only two days left in the regular season, it’s quite possible that some of these questions won’t be answered until the final inning rolls around.
There’s only so much baseball left before the postseason action rolls around. Here’s an updated look at the playoff picture, followed by some World Series futures odds courtesy of Odds Shark.
Friday Results and Implications
The Texas Rangers needed a win and nothing else to clinch the AL West, but instead fell to the Angels 2-1. This kept the Angels alive in the wild-card chase, and it took another clutch performance in a close game. Dating back to Sept. 1, the Angels are an astounding 10-2 in one-run contests.
“We’re just trying to win games,” said Angels star outfielder Mike Trout, via ESPN.com’s Jean-Jacques Taylor. “We see what Houston’s doing. We can’t lose anymore. It’s that simple.”
Los Angeles can’t knock out Texas with a final-series sweep; the best they can do is prevail in the final two games and hope the Astros falter. That doesn’t look terribly likely though, with Houston beating Arizona 21-5 on Friday.
The ‘Stros should make the playoffs if they can just take care of Arizona, but it’s a shame that they find themselves in a precarious position after a mostly brilliant (and surprising) campaign. Grantland’s Jonah Keri recently diagnosed the team’s issues, which includes a faltering bullpen:
Add in a bullpen slump, though, and that’ll do it. In September, Houston’s pen posted a 5.63 ERA, the worst mark in the majors over that span. In this case, the prevailing woes look more like bad luck than anything. For Astros relievers, the strikeout and walk rates remained virtually identical to their strong levels from earlier in the season. In fact, opponents also made contact less frequently and chased more pitches out of the zone than they did the rest of the year. But the Astros pen got hammered by terrible results on balls in play and a gigantic decline in strand rate.
Minnesota is still alive after a 3-1 loss to Kansas City, but its chances are slim with only two games left and meltdowns needed from both Houston and Los Angeles to sneak in. The best Minnesota can hope for is a one-game playoff, then postseason play.
The Royals win also kept them on pace with Toronto, which beat Tampa Bay 8-4, for overall home-field advantage in the AL. The Blue Jays can again thank the amazing Kevin Pillar for a big helping glove in this win, via the team’s official Twitter account:
MLB.com’s Chad Thornburg has the lowdown on the likely locations of the Wild Card Games after Friday:
The locations of both Wild Card Games remain there for the taking, though they’re likely headed to Pittsburgh and New York. A Pirates win or a Cubs loss puts the NL Wild Card Game presented by Budweiser at PNC Park, and while the Yankees don’t yet know their opponent for the one-game playoff, any New York win or Houston loss would assure it’s held at Yankee Stadium.
Pittsburgh put itself in good position for a home wild-card effort with a 12-inning 6-4 win over Cincinnati on Friday. The Cubs, who are making their first trip to the postseason since 2008, beat Milwaukee 6-1. The fact that the Cubs are guaranteed postseason play with such a young core of talent is cause enough to celebrate. The fans, knowing chances for this franchise don’t come around very often, are taking the opportunity to heart.
One way to overcome a franchise-altering, curse-extending incident is to acknowledge it. Yes, this means bringing back Steve Bartman, per ESPN:
As for Dodgers-Mets, the fellas from Chavez Ravine moved a half-game ahead of their eventual Big Apple foes in the home-field advantage race with a 6-2 win over San Diego on Friday. The Mets were idle on Friday due to heavy rain, so they still have three games to go against the Washington Nationals.
Home-field advantage is particularly important in that series due to the intricacies of the starting pitching matchups. The Dodgers have the best 1-2 combo in baseball with Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw—or Kershaw then Greinke, depending on your personal feelings and which stats you ascribe the most importance to—but the rotation beyond that is a big question mark.
As for the Mets, ace Matt Harvey will “probably” be available for just one start in the NLDS, per ESPN.com’s Adam Rubin, who then goes on to explain a potential Mets pitching rotation for the series assuming they clinch home-field:
“The educated speculation is that Jacob deGrom will start the opener, then Game 5, if necessary. That would work well, since it would give Noah Syndergaard a home start in Game 2, provided the Mets maintain home-field advantage. Steven Matz could get the fourth game.“
If the Mets don’t get home field, they could feel pressure to move Harvey up a game to combat tougher road conditions and battle either Greinke or Kershaw. Pitching matchups will be crucial to that series; just don’t expect anything to be set in stone until home-field is accounted for.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com