Most of the world looks forward to the holidays when December arrives, but Major League Baseball takes the stage first with the winter meetings beginning in Nashville, Tennessee, on Dec. 7.
Even though there have been a few notable trades and free-agent signings thus far, the real action will start with all 30 teams under the same roof. Free agents will get all of the attention, but trade winds are going to be more fascinating simply because more teams can play in those waters.
Signing free agents is great and certainly noteworthy, yet it’s also isolating because there are only so many teams that can afford to pay $150-200 million for Zack Greinke or Jason Heyward.
Trades are more inclusive because, even though contract money is a factor, teams can get creative with how it gets dispersed or split between the two (or more) clubs involved.
With trade rumors picking up steam leading into the winter meetings, here is the latest chatter and what it might mean.
Everybody Loves Shelby Miller
With the Atlanta Braves basically using the Houston Astros’ template of blowing up the entire MLB roster to build a deep farm system, one of the biggest chips left for Braves general manager John Coppolella to play is right-hander Shelby Miller.
Fortunately, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, Miller is generating a lot of heat on the trade market:
The Diamondbacks and Giants are two more of the 20 or so teams that are said to have expressed interest in Miller. The Braves generally are seeking to upgrade their offense, though obviously in the case of Severino they are willing to look at young pitchers, as well.
One rival GM, while not denigrating the asking prices, said the Braves were “very aggressive” with their proposal.
Heyman noted in the same report the Braves asked the New York Yankees about young right-hander Luis Severino in their discussions, but “there is no evidence the Yanks are considering that.”
Miller’s trade value is interesting because he’s not a dominant starter. He’s posted a solid 3.24 ERA since 2013, but his advanced stats resemble more of a back-end-of-the-rotation arm.
There are certain positive signs that Miller has evolved into more than those numbers suggest. Last year, the 25-year-old had the highest ground-ball rate of his career (47.7 percent) thanks to using his cutter and sinker more than ever (44.2 percent of the time, per BrooksBaseball.com).
That change in approach will be huge for Miller moving forward because he’s always been an erratic pitcher, never posting a strikeout-to-walk ratio better than 2.96 since 2013.
Working in the Braves’ favor, in terms of asking price, is that Miller is entering his first year of arbitration and is under team control for three years.
Given the sky-high salaries for mid-rotation starters, a young, effective, cost-controlled arm like Miller, who has also been durable with 95 starts the last three years, can net a strong return.
Of the teams Heyman listed as having contact with the Braves, Arizona makes the most sense as a landing spot. The Diamondbacks have been aggressively trying to upgrade their rotation, reportedly failing to convince Johnny Cueto to take a $120 million offer, according to MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert.
The Braves certainly have familiarity with Arizona’s farm system after acquiring Touki Toussaint from the team last June when the Diamondbacks just wanted to sell Bronson Arroyo’s contract regardless of the total cost.
Miller would give Arizona the starting pitcher it desperately needs, albeit at probably a steep price in prospects, while also giving the front office a better idea of which direction the team is headed in 2016 after a surprise 79-win campaign.
Hanley Ramirez For Sale
The Boston Red Sox new front office has already made the biggest splash in free agency, reportedly agreeing to a seven-year, $217 million deal with David Price, according to Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe.
One player who may not be around to see the fruits of the front office’s labor is Hanley Ramirez.
According to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, the Red Sox are looking to trade Ramirez one year after signing him to a four-year contract.
“There’s now talk in the front office that Dave Dombrowski is trying to move Ramirez in a deal,” Cafardo wrote. “The Mariners, Orioles, and Angels seem to be the targets, and all three make sense.”
Starting from the back of Cafardo‘s report, the Seattle Mariners, Baltimore Orioles and Los Angeles Angels have huge offensive holes that need to be plugged. The Orioles are desperate to add a hitter with Chris Davis potentially leaving as a free agent and getting a .640 OPS from their left fielders in 2015.
The Mariners and Angels need to add depth to their lineups, making Ramirez potentially a strong buy-low candidate.
There are, however, two major problems with Ramirez in a possible trade. First, which Cafardo noted, is the Red Sox “would need to eat at least half” of the $68 million he is still owed. That doesn’t include his $22 million vesting option for 2019 if he racks up 1,050 plate appearances between 2017 and 2018.
The second problem is Ramirez was beyond awful in 2014. His minus-1.8 FanGraphs‘ wins above replacement was the third-worst in baseball last year (min. 400 plate appearances), though he was ahead of Boston’s other big signing last year, Pablo Sandoval (-2.0).
There is also the fact that Ramirez can’t stay on the field. The 31-year-old has not hit the 130-game mark in a season since 2012.
Dombrowski‘s only real option with Ramirez at this point is essentially to pay him to play somewhere else. The Red Sox could enter 2015 with him as their first baseman, hoping he rebuilds his value, so even if the team doesn’t get back into contention he could look more attractive to a contender in July.
That doesn’t seem like the scenario Dombrowski wants to play out at this point, so he will have to make a hard sell to some team seeking offensive help.
Seattle’s Battle Plan
The Mariners continue to be aggressive movers this offseason, dealing Mark Trumbo to Baltimore on Tuesday, according to Heyman.
With that domino dropped, Mariners general manager Jerry DiPoto may look to pick things up on Miami outfielder Marcell Ozuna.
ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reported on Nov. 24 the Mariners were “working” on a trade involving Ozuna. One week later with no movement may mean nothing will come of those talks, though Joe Frisaro of MLB.com did outline what a potential deal could look like.
“Miami is in the market for a controllable, high-end starting pitcher,” Frisaro wrote. “If Seattle is a fit, a second source said Ozuna could be part of a bigger more substantive trade, including several players with big league experience.”
Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune reported the Mariners were “unlikely” to meet Miami’s request for Taijuan Walker.
Ozuna, thanks to his agent Scott Boras, doesn’t seem likely to stay in Miami much longer. Per Steve Wine of the Associated Press, Boras criticized the Marlins for how they handled Ozuna last season:
“He’s a lifetime .265 hitter, and I can find you 30 players in the major leagues that went 1 for 36 some time in their career, and they did not get sent to the minor leagues,” Boras said. “When you do those things, it sends a message to players, sends a message to the locker room and sends a message to everyone that looks at the organization that there is a calculus going on that is beyond performance.”
When the Marlins sent Ozuna down to Triple-A in July for more than one month, it cost him enough service time to become arbitration eligible this offseason.
While Boras may have a point because the Marlins’ ownership and front office are not exactly pillars of society, Ozuna‘s trade value may be overblown by his current team.
He is just 25 years old, but has a .311 career on-base percentage in 1,299 at-bats and his slugging percentage went from .455 in 2014 to .383 last year.
If the Mariners can wait out the market for Ozuna, assuming the Marlins realize what they really have instead of hoping the player’s raw talent will entice a team to overpay, they can get a solid cost-controlled outfielder.
Stats per Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com