You can feel the urgency between Major League Baseball teams and players picking up each day. There’s been a pattern in recent years where it took months for deals and trades to happen. That hasn’t been the case so far this offseason, which leads to more excitement and unpredictability.
While the huge dominoes, such as Jon Lester and Max Scherzer, aren’t likely to fall until the winter meetings in December, there are big moves being talked about that can reshape everything that happens this offseason. All it takes is one surprise contract or unexpected trade to force someone else into action.
It’s also possible that a lot of what’s being talked about right now is purely smoke. While that may end up being the case, it’s still fun to look at the possibilities of what could happen.
Here are the latest trade rumors that you should be paying close attention to.
Braves Not Done Dealing Outfielders
In what is shaping up to be a busy offseason for the Atlanta Braves, the franchise may not be ready to go into 2015 with an outfield of B.J. Upton, Justin Upton and Evan Gattis.
According to Andy Martino of The New York Daily News, Gattis and Justin Upton are generating interest from other teams:
In an age of scarce offense, Upton’s skills are rare and highly valuable. And the teams calling Atlanta about him are seeing that the price will be much higher than what the Braves extracted from St. Louis for Heyward.
Evan Gattis, who tied for 18th in the N.L. this year with 22 homers, is also available in the right deal, teams say — with a price that is also set by the dearth of power in the game.
One thing that does stand out in Martino’s report is the phrase “right deal.” Every player is available in the right deal. It’s a vague, generic term, though it isn’t completely without merit in this case because the Braves are looking past next season after trading Jason Heyward to St. Louis.
It’s also interesting that the Braves are apparently putting a higher price on Upton when you consider these stats from Ace of MLB Stats:
Upton doesn’t come with more control than Heyward, as his contract also expires at the end of 2015. The obvious difference is Upton has hit 56 homers with a .478 slugging percentage in two years with the Braves. Heyward has hit 25 homers and slugged .401 over that same span, per FanGraphs.
As valuable as Heyward is thanks to his defense and on-base skills, Upton’s best gift is his ability to hit the ball over the fence. In this era of declining offense, power is more valuable than it’s ever been. Giancarlo Stanton’s new contract can attest to that.
The Braves got one pitcher who has four years of MLB control (Shelby Miller) and a prospect in Tyrell Jenkins who will be under control for six years if and when he gets to The Show. That’s high value considering Heyward is a free agent after the season.
If Atlanta’s front office thinks it can do better than that for Upton, with more teams valuing the low cost of prospects and young players than ever, the All-Star outfielder will likely remain with the team at the start of 2015.
Nick Swisher on His Way out, Bro?
Two years ago, the Cleveland Indians made a splash in free agency by bringing former Ohio State star Nick Swisher back to his roots. His first year with the team was like a dream scenario, as the Indians surprised everyone by winning 92 games and made the playoffs as a wild card.
Things came crashing down to earth for Swisher in 2014. He battled injuries most of the year and hit .208/.278/.331 in 97 games before being shut down in August following knee surgery.
With Swisher’s value at an all-time low, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports is reporting that the Indians may try to get creative if they are going to make any noise this offseason:
That seems like a foolish move, because what can the Indians realistically expect to get for a soon-to-be 34-year-old with two guaranteed years and $30 million left on his contract, per Baseball-Reference.com, coming off the worst season of his career?
Here’s where the creativity comes into it, as Rosenthal speculated about other players with bad contracts who could potentially be moved:
It’s not a pretty group of players to look at. For the Indians, the only one who could be of interest is Ubaldo Jimenez because they know him well. He also had some success in 2013, though most of that came in the second half (1.82 ERA), and he was otherwise mediocre during his time in Cleveland.
The Indians may not have the financial space to make any big moves this offseason, so keeping the door open to anything is smart. It just doesn’t seem viable to move Swisher at this point given the money he is owed and the possible return in a trade.
Didi Gregorius a Shortstop Alternative
In a market where a lot of marquee teams could be in the market for a shortstop—including the Yankees, Mets and Dodgers—one cheap alternative could be Arizona’s Didi Gregorius.
According to Rosenthal, teams are calling the Diamondbacks about the availability of Gregorius:
Gregorius has a lot of work to do with the bat if he’s ever going to be a long-term starter in the big leagues. He has a .682 OPS in 183 games with the Diamondbacks, who, according to ESPN.com’s Park Factors stats, play in one of the best offensive environments in baseball.
If you put Gregorius in a worse offensive park, like Citi Field, imagine what the numbers could look like? However, the silver lining for any team with an interest in the 24-year-old is that he won’t cost a lot in terms of dollars.
Gregorius isn’t eligible for arbitration until 2016, so he will make little more than the league minimum next year before seeing any spike in his salary. That could make it easier, in relative terms, to live with a bad hitting performance when you aren’t paying a player much money.
Even though Gregorius hasn’t turned into the defender it seemed he would be as a prospect, FanGraphs‘ metrics have him roughly average to this point in his career with no defensive runs saved and 87 plays made out of his zone.
Considering how bad Derek Jeter and Hanley Ramirez were at shortstop last season for the Yankees and Dodgers, respectively, getting an average glove at the most important defensive position would be like seeing the reincarnation of Ozzie Smith.
The Diamondbacks don’t need Gregorius anymore, especially with Chris Owings returning and the general manager who acquired him (Kevin Towers) getting fired in September. So finding a trade partner for the young shortstop would be a smart move.
Stats via Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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