Coming off one of the most chaotic winter meetings in recent memory, you might suspect there wouldn’t be anything left for Major League Baseball teams to do as the new year approaches. You would be very wrong, though that’s not a bad thing.
Because of the way rumors were flying fast and furious out of the hotel in San Diego, there’s a lot of work that teams are still trying to do in order to help make themselves better for 2015 or beyond.
While past years have led to a lot of rumors and not much action, this year feels different because teams are able to feel easier about taking on money due to the television contracts kicking in a lot of additional revenue.
Trades are a complicated process, and some of these deals may be moving closer to completion. Here are the biggest rumors that are still floating around coming out of MLB‘s annual offseason extravaganza.
Justin Upton and Matt Kemp Together?
One of the biggest surprises of the winter meetings was Matt Kemp going from Los Angeles to San Diego. It’s not a surprise that Kemp was traded, but it is surprising that the Padres would be willing and able to absorb $76 million after the Dodgers chipped in $31 million to cover some of the cost.
There’s no denying the Padres needed to do something to upgrade an offense that finished last in the league with 535 runs scored. The outfield was a huge hole in San Diego, posting a collective .234/.307/.347 slash line with 29 home runs, per Baseball-Reference.com.
However, the addition of Kemp may not be the final move for the Padres. According to Mark Bowman of MLB.com, they are also pursuing Atlanta Braves outfielder Justin Upton:
Upton is more of a gamble than Kemp for the Padres if they are able to strike a deal. Even with Kemp’s injury history, he’s still under contract for five years. He has to stay healthy to provide a boost to this offense for the future.
Upton is due to become a free agent after 2015. Considering the Braves are reportedly looking for a bigger return on Upton than they got from St. Louis for Jason Heyward, San Diego is in a sticky situation.
The Padres did manage to win 77 games with little offensive production last year, and there could be a wild-card spot opening up depending on whether or not San Francisco is able to add at least one big hitter to replace Pablo Sandoval.
However, it’s asking a lot for the Padres to give up what they would have to in prospects for Upton and hope that they could find a way to re-sign him so that he’s not just a one-and-done.
Give the Padres credit for attempting to make a postseason push, but there has to be a limit when you look at the risk they have already taken with Kemp. If Upton were signed for two years and they could strike a deal, it would make more sense.
As things stand, San Diego’s front office should try to find other options that won’t cost as much before making a final decision on Upton.
Cole Hamels to Remain in Philadelphia?
Once Philadelphia general manager Ruben Amaro reportedly traded Jimmy Rollins to the Dodgers (per Todd Zolecki of MLB.com), it signaled the end of the Phillies’ previous era. It was two years too late to get substantial value for Rollins, but at least Amaro finally saw the writing on the wall.
It was naturally assumed that Amaro’s big play would be to deal Cole Hamels, who is still very much in his prime and could net a hefty return because of his status as one of the top pitchers in baseball. However, per David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News, the market seems to be working against the southpaw:
It is looking increasingly unlikely that the Phillies will end up landing the haul they say they want in order to part with star lefty Cole Hamels. … The Red Sox have done the most to lessen their desperation for Hamels, acquiring Diamondbacks lefty Wade Miley and Tigers righty Rick Porcello.
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Meanwhile, the Dodgers’ trade of Matt Kemp does not bode well for a potential Hamels deal, both because it moves some money that could enable them to sign a free agent, and, even moreso, because it opens up a spot in the outfield for center field prospect Joc Pederson, whom the Phillies would seem likely to demand in any Hamels deal (if they are honest with their qualification of the haul that they are looking for).
Murphy also mentioned the Chicago Cubs as a potential destination but acknowledges the signing of Jon Lester makes it less likely they will want to deal from their prized farm system to land another big-money pitcher.
However, Jon Morosi of Fox Sports noted the Phillies could still have a trade partner in the Red Sox:
If Hamels is going to be traded, Boston seems like the perfect spot. The Red Sox are still searching for a No. 1 guy after Lester opted to sign with Chicago. Hamels’ contract, which has four more guaranteed years at $94 million total (per Baseball-Reference.com), isn’t outrageous for a top-of-the-rotation starter.
In fact, per Christopher Gasper of The Boston Globe, the Red Sox’ final offer to Lester was for $135 million over six years. That averages out to $22.5 million per season, which is $1 million less per year than Hamels is going to make.
Like Lester, Hamels is a left-handed starter whose arsenal will likely age well because he doesn’t rely on an overpowering fastball to get hitters out.
By the way, Hamels’ performance in 2014 wasn’t much different than Lester’s, as you can see in the breakdown below:
Despite the substantial difference in their wins above replacement totals, Hamels and Lester were virtually the same pitcher last season, and both are entering their age-31 season in 2015.
The Red Sox would have to deal from their system, which is something they’ve been reluctant to do in the past, but the additions of Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval give them a surplus of infielders to go along with a crowded outfield. General manager Ben Cherington has a lot to play with.
It doesn’t make sense for Hamels to remain in Philadelphia anymore, so Amaro must find a way to make a deal happen while the pitcher’s value remains at its peak.
Dillon Gee Is “a Goner”
While the New York Mets still have to make vast improvements to their offense if they hope to compete in 2015, they are in a position to do so thanks to a surplus of starting pitching. Matt Harvey will return next season, joining an impressive young group that also includes Zack Wheeler and Jacob deGrom.
Thanks to having so many arms for five spots, the Mets can test the trade waters to find a bat. According to Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com, the odd-man out appears to be Dillon Gee:
Gee is projected to earn roughly $5 million next season, and he is under control through the 2016 season. Alderson has all but said that the Mets’ payroll — currently about $100 million — may go down by Opening Day. Translation: The Mets likely will not commit more than $5 million to new additions the remainder of the winter, since that’s the amount projected to depart once Gee is traded.
Rubin lists Colorado, Minnesota, Texas, San Diego, San Francisco and Kansas City as potential landing spots. Thomas Harding of MLB.com notes that the Mets have their eye on someone in Colorado if those two teams can come to terms:
While Gee has more value than Rex Brothers by virtue of being a starting pitcher, trading any kind of arm doesn’t help the Rockies get better.
Gee also seems like a bad fit for Colorado’s park, though not many pitchers find success in Coors Field. To succeed with the Rockies, pitchers need to miss bats and have a power arsenal. Gee has averaged 6.53 strikeouts per nine innings in his career with a fastball that’s averaged less than 90 miles mph in four of his five seasons, per FanGraphs.com.
The right-hander has been able to succeed in Citi Field because it’s a bigger park that allows him to get away with more mistakes. A move to Colorado would expose the flaws in his arsenal and result in one more failed arm for the Rockies to deal with.
The best thing Gee has going for him is price, as Rubin mentioned he’s only likely to cost around $5 million through arbitration. That’s a tame investment for a starting pitcher, so perhaps that’s why the Rockies would want to pull a trigger on a deal.
Regardless of where Gee ends up, his future as part of New York’s star-studded rotation doesn’t seem likely to last much longer.
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