The MLB hot stove is fully engulfed. Trades, free-agent moves and the rumors in between have been running rampant, and things are only going to get crazier as we approach the winter meetings.
Held in Nashville from Dec. 6-10, the winter meetings will see a massive amount of deals get done in short order. While 24/7 communication abilities make talking with fellow general managers easier than ever, the ease of everyone being all in one place remains the most conducive factor in making deals.
Until the important decision-makers actually make the trip to Nashville, however, it’s just a stream of rumors instead. The small rumblings about which players are available will help inform discussions that take place at the winter meetings, so they’re a good look at what to expect.
With that in mind, here’s a look at the latest rumors around baseball.
Yankees Willing to Talk Nova Trade
The 2015 season could have gone better for Ivan Nova. Returning from Tommy John surgery that limited him to four starts in 2014, Nova went 6-11 with a 5.07 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. He walked 3.16 batters per nine innings, his worst since 2010, and saw a marked drop-off in strikeout rate.
Things got so bad toward the end of the season that Nova was briefly pulled from the Yankees rotation. This isn’t exactly an ideal time to be putting him out on the trade market.
Yet, it appears that’s exactly what the Yankees are doing. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported the club is open to trading Nova, provided he returns a young pitcher with years of team control remaining. Nova turns 29 in January and will hit free agency for the first time after the 2016 campaign.
The Yankees remain in cost-control mode, but their logic here is pretty obvious. They don’t necessarily want to pay Nova what he’d command in the open market next year and believe they can get a similarly skilled, cost-controlled player if they float him on the market. Nova is still only two years removed from his brilliant 2013 campaign, and he’s been a two-win player twice in his career, per FanGraphs.
Before needing Tommy John surgery, Nova’s career also appeared to be trending upward. He’d upped his strikeouts per nine to 7.49 and was a legit middle-of-the-rotation stud in 2013. We’ve seen too many Tommy John pitchers need more than a year to recover to think Nova should be written off.
Still, it’s hard to imagine any team giving the Yankees what they’re looking for.
Pedro Alvarez Wants a Trade
The Pittsburgh Pirates are understandably disappointed in the development of Pedro Alvarez. After moving to first base to lessen his defensive responsibility, Alvarez hit .243/.318/.469 with 27 home runs and 77 RBI last season. While an improvement from his downright bad 2013, Alvarez still hasn’t become the consistent masher the Pirates envisioned after his back-to-back 30-homer seasons in 2012 and 2013.
FanGraphs‘ WAR formula credited him with 0.2 wins, which is a 0.2-win improvement over his nonexistent WAR in 2013. The move to first base proved to be a disaster, with Alvarez ranking as far and away the worst defensive player at his position. Jose Abreu was closer to being an average first baseman than he was to matching Alvarez’s poor defensive grades.
The Pirates were rumored to be interested in Korean first baseman Byung-ho Park and have rising prospect Josh Bell sitting in the minors. It’s pretty obvious they do not view Alvarez as their first baseman of the future from an organizational perspective.
Likewise, it appears Alvarez would prefer plying his trade elsewhere. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported Alvarez is looking for a “change of scenery,” and the Pirates would be happy to oblige if the right deal was put on the table. This continues a trend from the regular season, during which Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reported the Pirates wanted to “get rid” of Alvarez.
It’s worth noting Alvarez still led this team in home runs, so he brings something to the table. But his defensive issues and upcoming free agency make it more likely than not he’ll wind up elsewhere sooner than later.
Lawrie to Be On Move
A year ago, Brett Lawrie was a centerpiece in the deal that sent Josh Donaldson to Toronto. Now, Donaldson is the American League’s reigning MVP, while the Athletics appear ready to move on from Lawrie.
Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported Oakland will move either Lawrie or third baseman Danny Valencia this offseason, with the former being far more likely. The move comes after Oakland reacquired Jed Lowrie, who spent the 2015 season with the Houston Astros.
It’s clear Billy Beane and Co. are prioritizing defense with this move, but the Lawrie-Lowrie switch seems strange on paper. Lawrie is a talented 25-year-old who is coming off career highs in home runs (16) and RBI (60), and was an otherwise good defensive player before falling apart in 2015. Lowrie is 31 and basically who he’s going to be at this point: a perfectly fine, slightly above replacement level option who has had just two truly excellent offensive seasons.
The A’s are adding a player six years older than their current option for what appears to be a lateral move. Lawrie also doesn’t become a free agent until after the 2017 season, the same year Lowrie‘s three-year deal he signed in Houston runs out.
Beane always deserves the benefit of the doubt. There’s obviously something he sees in Lowrie‘s presence that the numbers aren’t showing. But he better hope a team offers a talented young player in exchange for Lawrie to make the deal worth it.
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