With the calendar turning to September, it’s pennant race time in baseball. Teams that are in contention now can truly say they’re in this thing.
All the planning during the winter and work during the spring are paying off now. All the great play during the first five months of the regular season and the moves made at the trade deadline have built toward this. It’s the best time of the year in baseball—and even better if you’re a fan of one of the teams competing in the playoff chase.
Every September has dramatic, meaningful baseball. Last year gave us perhaps the best late-season race we’ve ever seen. It certainly resulted in the best final day of the regular season we’ve enjoyed as baseball fans with the Tampa Bay Rays and St. Louis Cardinals taking us to midnight before winning their wild-card playoff bids.
But the stretch run for this season could be truly memorable. Heading into the final month, 15 teams are in playoff contention, thanks to the extra wild-card spot added to the postseason format this year.
The sheer number of teams competing for 10 playoff bids is only one of the reasons September is going to be tremendously fun to follow for baseball fans and those of us who write about the sport. Here is what we’re looking at.
Everywhere You Look, There’s a Race
Last year at this time (Sept. 4), only two of the six division races—the AL East and AL West—had first-place margins of less than five games. Every National League division had a first-place lead of at least seven games.
This season, all three division leaders in the American League have first-place leads of less than five games. Two divisions—the AL East and AL Central—have a one-game margin at the top. In the NL, the San Francisco Giants lead the Dodgers by 4.5 games.
The wild card has taken something away from tight division races in recent seasons. The runner-up in the best division race typically has the safety net of the league’s extra playoff spot to fall into. (The Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves didn’t exactly follow that pattern last year.)
But this year, even with an extra wild-card spot available, it’s not a given that the AL East runner-up will get a wild-card playoff spot. The Baltimore Orioles currently hold one of those bids and the Rays are 1.5 games behind the wild-card leaders. As tightly clustered as the wild-card pack is, however, the Oakland Athletics and Detroit Tigers could easily nab those spots.
If that happens, it would be the first time since 2006 that the second-place team in the AL East didn’t make the playoffs as a wild card.
Wild Card Races are Wild
What made last year’s rallies by the Rays and Cardinals so impressive is that both teams appeared to be far out of playoff contention. The Red Sox (eight games) and Braves (8.5 games) had huge leads in the wild-card standings on Sept. 4.
Yes, both teams blew their leads, making for the most exciting final day of the season that baseball has ever seen. But this year, the suspense is already there. There won’t be a slow build. We’ll very likely have four-team races in each league for two wild-card bids. In the AL, it could be a five-team competition.
We already mentioned the Orioles, Rays, Athletics and Tigers as participants in the AL wild-card battle royale. But the Los Angeles Angels, 3.5 games behind in the standings, need to be included as well—even if they have four teams to fight through for one of those coveted extra playoff spots.
In the NL, the Braves and Cardinals bring an air of familiarity to the wild-card race. This year, both teams could make it, rather than one beating out the other.
But the Los Angeles Dodgers, fueled by their Aug. 25 mega trade, are just a half-game behind the wild-card leaders. Also still in the race despite a terrible August are the Pittsburgh Pirates, 2.5 games off the pace.
New Blood from the Beltway
Every year, the playoff field has some relatively new faces. The Milwaukee Brewers and Arizona Diamondbacks had been in the NL playoffs relatively recently, but provided a bit of a fresh look for 2011. In the AL, the Tigers hadn’t been in the postseason since 2006.
But this year’s postseason could truly provide a transfusion of new blood, courtesy of the nation’s beltway. The Orioles haven’t made the AL playoffs since 1997. A 15-year drought has left an entire generation of O’s fans wondering what it was like to see postseason baseball in Baltimore.
Forty miles away, down I-95, the Washington Nationals haven’t caught a scent of the postseason during their seven years in D.C. Going deeper into the history of the franchise, the Nats haven’t made the playoffs since 1981, when the Montreal Expos were the second-half champs of a strike-shortened season.
The Orioles have been the surprise team of the AL, challenging the Yankees in the AL East and competing for a wild-card spot during a season in which most analysts predicted them to finish in last place.
Baltimore’s ascension to playoff contention has been all the more probable with a 4.58 ERA from its starting rotation. Wei-Yin Chen and Jason Hammel have been good, but haven’t given the O’s an ace. Zach Britton, Brian Matusz, Tommy Hunter and Jake Arrietta have all bounced between the majors and Triple-A Norfolk this season.
The pitching mastery is in D.C., where the Nationals’ starting staff leads MLB with a 3.26 ERA. With Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmerman, Edwin Jackson and Ross Detwiler, the Nats have the best rotation in baseball.
As a team, Washington is right behind the Rays with a staff ERA of 3.27. Tyler Clippard has gone from one of the majors’ best setup men to one of its best closers. Sean Burnett, Ryan Mattheus and Craig Stammen have been outstanding in middle relief. And last year’s closer, Drew Storen, has recovered from an elbow injury to provide reinforcements.
Neither team is assured of a postseason big yet, especially the Orioles. But the chances of the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan area hosting some playoff baseball this October look extremely strong. Could the Beltway provide MLB‘s best regional rivalry other than the Subway Series between the Yankees and New York Mets?
Big Stakes for Big Markets
This might be something that only TV executives care about, but what if neither the New York or Los Angeles markets have a team in the MLB playoff field?
The Yankees will almost certainly make it to the postseason. But with only a one-game lead in the AL East and the melee in the wild-card standings, it’s not far-fetched to imagine that the Yanks could be squeezed out of the playoffs.
On the west coast, the Dodgers took on $260 million worth of contracts to get the first baseman and starting pitcher they sorely needed to make a postseason run. Yet the Dodgers have gone 5-5 since making their blockbuster deal with the Red Sox and are staring at a 4.5 game deficit in the NL West.
If the Tigers beat out the White Sox in the AL Central, there goes the No. 3 market too.
Here is a list of the top 100 TV markets in the country. All hope would not be lost in baseball if the Yankees, Dodgers and White Sox didn’t make the playoffs. The Rangers would still bring the No. 5 market into play. If either the Giants or A’s make it, that takes care of the No. 6 market. The Braves and Nationals would cover the No. 8 and No. 9 TV markets, as well.
Looking at it another way, the top five payrolls in baseball face the possibility of not qualifying for the postseason. (You can see a listing of top payrolls this season and how they rank amongst one another at USA Today.) The Rangers and Giants might be the only clubs in the top 10 to make the playoffs.
Could we see a triumph of the mid-to-small-market teams this postseason?
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