Via Jack Curry’s Twitter:

Yanks expect 11 pitchers for DS. CC, AJ, Andy, Phil, Mo, Wood, Joba, Logan, Rbrtsn r locks. Nova, Vazquez, Gaudin, Mitre fight 4 2 spots.

He forgot to mention Dustin Moseley, but I assume if he blew the Yankees away over the next two weeks he could easily beat out some of these players. I’m also going to throw in Royce Ring because he is a lefty and could worm his way on to the ALDS roster with some impressive performances.

So the possible final two pitchers are these players: Moseley, Ring, Ivan Nova, Javier Vazquez, Chad Gaudin, and Sergio Mitre. Let’s take a look at each pitcher by FIP* (I’m using this because it’s probably the most fair statistic to judge relievers by):

Ring 2.49
Nova 4.21
Mitre 5.02
Vazquez 5.34
Gaudin 5.77
Moseley 5.92

Relievers are a volatile bunch so let’s take a closer look at each pitcher.

Vazquez is probably the most likely to make the team out of this group based mostly on experience and the size of his contract (even if Brian Cashman denies this). He has a 5.05 ERA in 149.2 innings this season. While that is not impressive, he has potential and had a great run over 12 starts for part of the summer.

I like Nova, so we’ll go with him next. Nova’s overall numbers aren’t exactly pretty, but his ERA has risen after pitching through lineups the second and third times through. If he’s coming out of the bullpen, he might be an asset only facing teams once around. Even at a two or three inning clip, he could be quite a weapon.

Girardi seems to really like Gaudin so he’s probably got a good shot. Normally he is a guy who puts up big strikeout numbers, but he only has 53 strikeouts in 63.1 innings this season. Combine that with his 25 walks and 5.54 ERA and the Yankees should stay away from this guy. He hasn’t been good lately either—over the last month he’s been in eight games and has a 5.91 ERA.

Ring has almost no experience in the major leagues this year, but had decent minor league numbers. Over 42 innings he had a 1.93 ERA with 39 K’s and just 11 walks. He will have to pitch lights out every time out though to even get attention.

Mitre and Moseley have already been forgotten about. In the last month Moseley has made three starts, none since Andy Pettitte came back, and two relief appearances for 18.2 innings. Mitre has almost been nonexistant pitching only three times in 30 days for a whopping 7.1 innings.

Mitre could get some more chances thanks to his 2.45 ERA over the last 30 days, but Moseley’s 5.30 ERA should make him a forgotten man.

There are still 10 games left in the season, but my guess is that Nova and Vazquez are the final two players on the ALDS roster. Depending on the opponent and results over the upcoming days, I still wouldn’t rule out Ring.

What do you think?

*(Here is a brief description of FIP via FanGraphs: a pitcher’s FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching, which calculates a pitcher’s responsibility for the runs he allows based on his walks, strikeouts, and home runs allowed. The FIP formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor that scales FIP to match league average ERA for a given season and league).

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