The Philadelphia Phillies are in a lot of trouble. They are an aging team that has seen better days. They’ll make the playoffs again, but a lot has happened since 2008.
It is an old axiom that pitching wins championship. The Phillies’ problem is that it applies more to the playoffs and World Series than to the regular season.
Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee give the Phillies three of baseball’s top starting pitchers.
Halladay will be 35 years old in May and Lee will be 33 in August. Halladay is starting his 15th season while Lee will be in his 11th. Barring injury, they should do at least as well as they did last season.
Vance Worley and Dontrelle Willis are the other starters, although general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. stated Joe Blanton, who has had elbow problems, would probably be the Phillies’ fourth or fifth starter with Willis working out of the bullpen.
Antonio Bastardo was expected to be the closer until the signing of Jonathan Papelbon. Bastardo wore down near the end of last season while Papelbon has had some major problems during his Boston Red Sox career.
The rest of the bullpen is no better than average.
Overall, the Phillies’ pitching staff ranks among the league’s best, but the drop off after Halladay, Hamels and Lee is significant.
Too many of the Phillies’ regulars are old, injured or both.
Ryan Howard’s offensive production has decreased steadily the last two years. He suffered a torn left Achilles tendon when he made the last out of the Phillies’ 2011 season. His return for 2012 is unknown. Howard is still a top player, but he no longer is in the Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder class.
John Mayberry and Ty Wigginton are expected to fill in at first base until Howard returns. Wigginton, who batted .242/.315/.416 for Colorado, plays first, second, shortstop and the outfield, none of them very well. Wiggington is no Michael Cuddyer.
Sadly, Chase Utley has seen better days. He is 32 years old, has lost range at second base and batted only .259 with 11 home runs upon returning from injuries.
Placido Polanco is underrated, but now, at the age of 36 and a player with little power at a power position, he is no longer an effective table setter for the sluggers.
Who is the shortstop? Jimmy Rollins will probably return, but he, like Howard, is no longer the great offensive threat he was a few seasons ago.
UPDATE: Rollins and Phillies agree to a three-year, $33 million deal.
Hunter Pence in right field is a star and Shane Victorino is Shane Victorino, but who is in left field?
John Mayberry may be adequate, but he might play a lot of first base. Ty Wigginton and Laynce Nix are jokes. Nix is with his fifth team and is no better than a reserve. Domonic Brown is the hope.
Finally, Carlos Ruiz is a winner that is terribly underrated. He has some fine seasons ahead of him. Backup Brian Schneider can catch, but hitting is another issue.
The Phillies are almost certain to make the playoffs. With Halladay, Hamels and Lee, they will win playoff games.
The problem is that the offense can be stopped, which, as in 2010 and 2011, puts too much pressure on the three aces.
The San Francisco Giants lead with Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum and Madison Bumgarner.
The Atlanta Braves start Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson, Jair Jurrjens and some highly prized youngsters.
The world champion St. Louis Cardinals have Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia and probably Adam Wainwright.
It doesn’t matter if the Phillies’ big three are better than their main rivals. The Giants, Braves and Cards starters can stay with them.
The answer is to improve the offense with some youth. That’s not easy to accomplish.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com