With Major League Baseball’s Winter Meetings now in the rear-view mirror, what’s next for the Boston Red Sox?
The Red Sox recently added several pieces to their starting rotation, but they lack an ace to carry them. Boston continues to have an overabundance of outfielders as well, not to mention a few other areas that could use some tinkering. Here is a look at what the Red Sox need to do over the remainder of the offseason.
Acquire a No. 1 Starter?
Max Scherzer and James Shields are still out there on the open market as free agents. As Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe recently reported, rumors of the Red Sox potentially trading for the Philadelphia Phillies‘ Cole Hamels will not go away. Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal stated that Boston has also discussed a possible deal with the Washington Nationals for Jordan Zimmerman.
Boston’s fans would undoubtedly like to see their club make a major move for a top-tier starter. But at this point, there’s a fairly decent chance that’s not going to happen. Gordon Edes of ESPN Boston suggests the Red Sox may opt for more pitching depth, rather than a star:
In the absence of a big move, the Sox could try to acquire another young arm with big-league experience, like Miami’s Nathan Eovaldi, a 24-year-old right-hander who is a hard thrower (95.7 mph was his average velocity in 2014) and had a much better fielding independent percentage (3.37 FIP) than ERA (4.37), which may be a function of a high batting average on balls in play (.326). The Marlins are looking for a first baseman and a bat to hit behind Giancarlo Stanton, and they could have some interest in Allen Craig.
Boston entered the Winter Meetings with two starters projected to be in the club’s 2015 rotation, Clay Buchholz and Joe Kelly. The team then acquired Wade Miley, Rick Porcello and Justin Masterson. From ESPN Boston’s Joe McDonald, after the signing of Masterson, who had a 5.88 ERA and 1.63 WHIP last season, Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington said:
We clearly see Justin as a starter. That’s what he’s really been just about all the time since he was traded, so that’s the role we expect him to be in, and if he’s what we think he will be then he’ll be a good one. Justin has had experience pitching out of the bullpen, so obviously he can do that, but we’re signing him to be a starter.
Could this be an indication that no further moves are coming and the Red Sox rotation is now complete with those five players? Considering some of the other comments Cherington made lately, that might very easily be the case. Via Jason Mastrodonato of Mass Live, Cherington said:
We’ve been able to acquire the three starters we have this week while still maintaining what we consider the top end of our young pitching and still have what we think is good pitching depth, beyond the five guys that will likely begin the season in the rotation.
And from the Providence Journal‘s Tim Britton, Boston’s GM stated:
Once Opening Day is gone, the whole No. 1 starter thing kind of is overrated. Whoever takes the ball that night, it’s their responsibility to help us win. You’re going to pitch every five days; the order doesn’t really mean as much once you get past Opening Day. We feel like we’ve put together a rotation now that can help us win every game. We’ll figure out the order in spring training.
At first glance Cherington‘s words suggest he is more than happy with his squad’s current starting pitching situation. However, Boston may well still be pursuing an ace anyway. Britton makes a great argument for why Red Sox supporters shouldn’t necessarily take those quotes too seriously:
A few things to digest…it would be bad form for Cherington to express dissatisfaction with a rotation full of established major-league regulars. …
Second, it would be bad business for Cherington to express dissatisfaction with his rotation. … Now that the Red Sox have five starters, they can convincingly pretend to walk away from the negotiating table with the Phillies or Nationals if the price looks too high. (It’s easier to haggle over the price of a car when you drove to the dealership instead of walked.)
If Boston is content to head into the 2015 season with a rotation of Porcello, Buchholz, Miley, Kelly and Masterson, can it still compete for a division title? C.J. Nitkowski of Fox Sports believes so, writing:
And while you wonder how the Red Sox can win a division without an ace, remember who won the American League East a year ago: The Baltimore Orioles, with a rotation that posted a 3.61 ERA, good for 12th best in baseball, to go along with a 4.18 FIP, 28th in baseball.
The Red Sox have a very good, not great, starting rotation. One that can be more than enough when backed by good defense, good offense, and a good bullpen, much like the Orioles had a year ago.
However, of the five Boston starters only Porcello (3.43) posted an ERA below 4.00 last season (Kelly 4.11, Miley 4.34, Buchholz 5.34 and Masterson 5.88). Matching Baltimore’s 2014 production with this group will be no easy task.
Shed Some Outfielders
Below is a guess at the Red Sox batting order in 2015:
- Mookie Betts, CF
- Dustin Pedroia, 2B
- Hanley Ramirez, LF
- David Ortiz, DH
- Pablo Sandoval, 3B
- Mike Napoli, 1B
- Rusney Castillo, RF
- Xander Bogaerts, SS
- Christian Vazquez, C
Brock Holt played every position besides pitcher and catcher last year and is a nice option as an all-around utility player. Allen Craig has spent much of his time in the outfield over the course of his career, but he can also be used as a backup first baseman or third baseman. That leaves Shane Victorino, Daniel Nava and Jackie Bradley Jr. all fighting for time as reserve outfielders.
It doesn‘t make any sense for Boston to enter the season with six, seven or eight outfielders (depending on if you include Craig and Holt). Somebody has got to go.
Find a Home For Will Middlebrooks
Will Middlebrooks batted just .191 with two home runs and 19 RBI in 63 games in 2014. By signing Sandoval, the Red Sox made it quite clear that Middlebrooks is not their third baseman of the future. The Boston Herald’s Scott Lauber recently discussed some options for the 26-year-old:
Middlebrooks said he spoke to general manager Ben Cherington last week — one day after Sandoval signed his five-year, $95 million contract — but received few answers about a situation that he calls ‘blurry.’
He still doesn’t have to clear waivers to be sent to the minors and could conceivably open next season in Triple A. He also could move across the infield and begin working out at first base, where Mike Napoli has only one year left on his contract.
Or he could be traded, part of a package to bring back a starting pitcher.
His recent numbers prevent him from having much trade value, so it’s hard to imagine Boston would reject any reasonable offers from teams showing interest in Middlebrooks.
Add a Veteran Lefty to the Bullpen
At the moment the Red Sox have four left-handed relievers on their 40-man roster—Drake Britton, Tommy Layne, Edwin Escobar and Eduardo Rodriguez. Not a single one of them has thrown even 50 total innings in the major leagues.
Before spring training starts, expect Boston to bring in at least one lefty with some big league experience under his belt. Middlebrooks or one of the extra outfielders could come in useful in making this happen.
The Red Sox have taken several significant strides towards recovering from their last place season in 2014. But, if they’re aspiring to return to their championship form of 2013 there is still much work to be done.
Statistics via RedSox.com
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