The Houston Astros have reportedly acquired a piece that bolsters their youthful core and keeps them in line as a World Series contender right now, and maybe over the next couple of years.
According to Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle, on the tail end of a slow Wednesday at the winter meetings in Nashville, Tennessee, the Astros struck a deal with the Philadelphia Phillies for the bullpen arm they coveted all offseason—Ken Giles.
Per Drellich, the trade cost Houston potentially ripening arms in Vince Velasquez and Brett Oberholtzer, as well as outfield prospect Derek Fisher (No. 8 in the club’s top 30 prospects and now the Phillies’ eighth-best prospect, according to MLB Pipeline), along with a fourth player.
In return, the Astros get a proven addition to their bullpen who can pitch the eighth or ninth inning with a high-90s fastball and a put-away slider. They also get five years of control with Giles, whose 1.56 ERA and nearly 12 strikeouts per nine innings through two seasons are good enough to put him among the elite’s elite.
That fits with what Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow told reporters Wednesday before the trade was reported when asked about the value of a proven arm:
There’s never a complete understanding of what type of pitcher makes that transition into that closer role, into that ninth inning role successfully. There’s been a lot of good arms, with good stuff that are good in the seventh and the eighth inning and have struggles in the ninth. There are pitchers that have successfully made that transformation and increased their value and there are those that have gone the other way. Having done it to me has value that it’s more likely to be replicable in the future.
Immediately after reports of the trade emerged, and for much of the era of advanced metrics and new-age ways to value relievers, pundits noted how they like proven dominant relievers, but also how they can be developed or found for cheaper than what the Astros paid for Giles. Recent history has shown that philosophy to be accurate, especially for teams lacking payroll to spend on their bullpens.
It is certainly noticeable that people are high on Velasquez, as they should be. He is 23 years old, struck out 9.4 hitters per nine innings in 2015 and averaged around 95 mph on his fastball. There is a lot to like about an arm like that, especially if he gains some command and is transitioned into the bullpen, where he can maximize his best pitches and top velocity.
But the Astros are not in position to experiment and hope. Not now, not after an unexpected run into the playoffs, and not when they were mere defensive outs away from advancing to the American League Championship Series. Not when they have the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner (Dallas Keuchel), the reigning AL Rookie of the Year and a superstar shortstop (Carlos Correa) and other current and budding stars littering the roster (Jose Altuve, George Springer, Lance McCullers).
This team is in win-now mode after years of asking its fanbase to wait out the losing years, to be patient with the prospects and to keep up the support. The fans did, and the Astros repaid the faith last season. Now, they have to take the next step forward, and Giles helps them do that months after the team lost to the Kansas City Royals in the Division Series in large part because of a bad bullpen.
Velasquez, for all his promise, is not a proven piece yet. Giles is.
This is why Luhnow went after the 25-year-old Giles. He would not cost in money or players what someone like Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman or Andrew Miller would. But he is proven enough that he is a huge upgrade, the kind that can help the Astros be the favorite in the AL West and lock down the late innings in October.
One day, maybe a couple of years from now, Velasquez and Fisher might end up starring for the Phillies as cost-controlled impact players heavily assisting the franchise’s rebuild. Maybe the trade will look amazing from Philadelphia’s end.
The Astros should not care. They are a team with a growing payroll that can be afforded, and many of the players on the 25-man roster are still cost-controlled anyway, including Giles.
They are also finished with their rebuild, and they need to win at the major league level. This kind of deal, for Giles, is part of the reason why they stockpiled so much young talent during the losing years, because if they needed to flip it for proven talent, they would be able to in an effort to win a World Series.
The Astros got the man they targeted for an area that needed improvement. Nobody knows how future performances will pan out, but in the now, Giles is a major addition to the team’s young core and championship chances.
All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter and talk baseball here.
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