Ryan Ludwick—mentor, veteran, x-factor.
We knew back in May that there was going to be an x-factor in the Cincinnati Reds lineup who would push this club over the hump. We hypothesized that it was Jay Bruce, that it was Zack Cozart and that it was Todd Frazier, but in the end, it has turned out to be Ryan Ludwick.
It has been the case all season that Cincinnati has needed a cleanup hitter. Brandon Phillips did an admirable job during his time there, but the offense has truly been clicking in Joey Votto’s absence because of Ludwick’s production.
Let’s look at this claim through numbers. But, let’s also debunk one myth before we get started.
Many think that the offense has been rolling because of better production from the No. 1 and 2 slots in the lineup—I say nah-baby-nah. The Reds have gone 22-8 since their All-Star break, but during that time, Zack Cozart has only hit .218/.261/.373 while Drew Stubbs has only hit at a .259/.325/.435 clip.
Combine their numbers and you still end up with that same sub-.300 OBP that has haunted the lineup from the git go—no improvement over the first half. The two have combined for some great games during this 30 game run that has created a distorted perception of their performances—perception lies but, numbers tell the truth.
Now that we have cleared that up, let us look at the No 3 and 4 spots in the lineup. Before the All-Star break, Joey Votto put up a .348/.471/.617 slash, followed by Brandon Phillips putting up a .280/.322/.428 slash primarily from the cleanup spot.
Since the break, BP has been the primary replacement for Joey Votto in the three hole—hitting .347/.371/.531. Following BP and taking over the cleanup duties has primarily been Ryan Ludwick. Phillips has put up comparable numbers to Votto over the past month. It is Ludwicks .323/.387/719 performance since the break that has been the major difference.
We knew all along that Cincy needed a cleanup hitter. Leading up to the trade deadline we heard names like Carlos Quentin and Josh Willingham being tossed around as possible trade candidates, but none of them ever even sniffed a Cincy uniform.
The Reds’ answer at leadoff is Brandon Phillips. With Ryan Ludwick’s recent increase in production, it makes BP’s possible move to the top of the order possible—once Joey Votto returns to the lineup, that is.
The underlying slogan for the Reds the rest of the season is going to be; “As Ryan Ludwick goes, so do the Reds.” Ryan Ludwick is the x-factor.
With all other circumstances remaining the same—if Ludwick remains productive, the Reds continue to dominate. But, if Ludwick cools like he is prone to do, the Reds will have to continue to scrap the bottom of the barrel for every run they can get.
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