The Seattle Mariners need a cleanup hitter. What position that hitter plays remains to be seen. The club was reportedly interested in shortstop Hanley Ramirez, but it lost out on the former Dodger when he signed with the Red Sox.
With Pablo Sandoval and Yasmany Tomas also off the board, the number of chairs is dwindling. The music isn’t close to ending, but the M’s list of potential targets is shrinking.
Seattle’s need for a middle-of-the-order bat happily coincides with the team’s need for a corner outfielder. The corner outfield spots are generally regarded as traditional power positions (and luckily for the M’s there are numerous possibilities).
Matt Kemp’s name has been trade-rumor fodder for months—if not the last year—due to a hefty contract, a slight decline in play and an overcrowded Dodger outfield.
Another trade option is Atlanta outfielder Justin Upton. The former Diamondback reportedly removed the M’s from his no-trade list, and Atlanta could be open to trading its star outfielder after sending Jason Heyward to St. Louis.
Seattle previously attempted to acquire Upton while he was in Arizona, but the outfielder vetoed a deal that would have involved Taijuan Walker and Nick Franklin (among others), per Larry Stone of The Seattle Times.
Like Kemp, Boston outfielder Yoenis Cespedes is part of an overcrowded outfield and could conceivably be dealt.
Should one of those three (or another trade target of their ilk) be acquired, he won’t come cheap. Each one of the three previously mentioned players comes from a team with specific needs.
Matt Kemp
Any trade conversation between the M’s and Dodgers must start with Los Angeles eating a majority of Kemp’s salary. While still a productive player, Kemp is not the player he was in 2011 when he finished runner-up in the MVP voting. The outfielder hit a good-but-not-great .287 last season.
As mentioned, the Dodgers lost Hanley Ramirez to Boston and thus are without a shortstop. The Mariners have two of these in youngsters Brad Miller and Chris Taylor. It’s unclear if Los Angeles would be interested in either. Surely it has a need at the position, but the two have only played in a combined 246 games. That kind of experience at a crucial position isn’t ideal for a team with major championship aspirations.
Los Angeles’ other glaring need is that of a starting pitcher. Former Colorado swing-man Juan Nicasio is slated to be the fifth starter in a rotation that features, among others, Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. Nicasio posted a 5.38 ERA in 33 appearances (14 of which were starts) for Colorado in 2014. His career ERA is a smidgen smaller at 5.03.
Unless Nicasio posts improved numbers, the team will need better quality and pitching.
Seattle has plenty of intriguing prospects in its system, such as Tyler Pike and Danny Hultzen. However, with the Dodgers in need of pitching now, Roenis Elias could be in play. The rookie starter made the jump to the majors in 2014 and put up 10 wins and a 3.85 in 29 starts.
A package of Miller and Elias for Kemp and a lower-level prospect could get the deal done. The Dodgers will have to eat a good portion of Kemp’s salary in the swap, but the acquisition of two young players like Miller and Elias would probably mean the inclusion of a minor prospect on Los Angles’ part to even things out.
Justin Upton
While similar in terms of what they could provide the Mariners with, Upton and Kemp are very different in other areas—mainly age and salary. Upton is 27 to Kemp’s 30. In addition, Upton’s contract expires after 2015, while Kemp’s runs through 2019.
Judging by Upton’s comparatively favorable numbers—and the high price the Cardinals paid to acquire Jason Heyward—it certainly wouldn’t be surprising if the M’s had to pay a high price for Upton.
While not the same player he was when the M’s attempted to acquire him previously, Upton is still a player who can provide 30 home runs, 100 runs driven in and passable defense in the outfield.
Upton vetoed a previous deal to Seattle in which the Mariners would have parted with Nick Franklin, Charlie Furbush, Stephen Pryor and one of Taijuan Walker, James Paxton or Danny Hultzen.
The Mariners won’t have to give up nearly as much to acquire Upton this time around, but they’ll likely have to part with something of value.
The Braves, like the Dodgers, could use starting pitching. Even after acquiring Shelby Miller in the Heyward swap, the team could use extra starters. Aaron Harang and Ervin Santana could leave in free agency (and Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy are recovering from Tommy John surgery).
To acquire Upton, one of either James Paxton or Taijuan Walker is likely forfeit. Losing either of the two would hurt, but given the strength of the M’s pitching and dire need of a cleanup hitter, they could weather the loss.
Atlanta will also be in the market for a new outfielder if the team deals Upton, especially after dealing fellow outfielder Heyward for two pitchers. The M’s could offer Dustin Ackley or Michael Saunders in return. Saunders is rumored to be on the trade block.
In addition, Brad Miller could be used as additional trade bait. Atlanta could play him at second—until top prospect Jose Peraza is ready—and then slide Miller to third base long-term to take over for the aging Chris Johnson.
Upton will hit free agency after 2015, but the fact that he took the Mariners off of his trade list (which was the catching point in the 2013 deal not coming to fruition) suggests he’d be willing to play for the team. Should the M’s make the playoffs and/or make a deep run in 2015, Upton may be more inclined to stay than bolt when his contract expires.
Yoenis Cespedes
Thanks to a bevy of roster moves, Cespedes finds himself in an overcrowded Red Sox outfield that also features Rusney Castillo, Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., Brock Holt, Daniel Nava, Allen Craig and Shane Victorino.
The same quality depth cannot be found in the Red Sox’s rotation. Clay Buchholz is the veteran presence and ace. Meanwhile, spots two through five will be filled by some combination of Joe Kelly, Rubby De La Rosa, Allen Webster, Anthony Ranaudo and Brandon Workman.
Because of this, one of Seattle’s starting pitchers will surely be involved in any potential trade. A straight swap of Walker or Paxton for Cespedes is plausible, but Cespedes has his warts and, like Upton, is a free agent after 2015.
Cespedes can hit for power—that much is certain—but he is far less of a complete player than someone like Upton or even Kemp. In any deal, Seattle’s brass has to accept the fact that Cespedes has warts—Cespedes’ OPS in 2014 was .751, just above Logan Morrison’s .735 number.
The former Athletics slugger’s numbers don’t suggest he is a player who commands a massive return, but given Boston’s depth in the outfield and its need of starting pitching, the Red Sox won’t just give him away. They’ll want the max return for their power-hitting outfielder.
He may not be the most hand-in-glove fit for the M’s, but Cespedes would cost one of Walker, Paxton or Hisashi Iwakuma. Losing any of the three would be a massive loss for Seattle, but that would likely be the cost of trading.
Whether it is Matt Kemp, Justin Upton or Yoenis Cespedes, the Mariners will be losing some valuable assets via trade. It’s the sad reality of the situation, but another reality is that if the M’s want to make a run in the playoffs in 2015, they’ll need a cleanup hitter.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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