Of all the ways the 2014 St. Louis Cardinals could have launched themselves into a fourth straight National League Championship Series, breaking out the thunder didn’t seem very high on the list.
But then, as it usually does this time of year, baseball happened.
It was surprising enough that the Cardinals gave the Los Angeles Dodgers more power than they could handle in the first three games of the National League Division Series, but it really wasn’t until Tuesday’s series-clinching 3-2 win in Game 4 that things got truly nutty.
After heroically—and I mean that—shutting out the Cardinals on one hit through the first six innings of Game 4 on only three days’ rest, Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw gave up back-to-back singles to Matt Holliday and Jhonny Peralta to open the seventh inning.
Thus was the stage set for Matt Adams, who promptly went boom:
Now, this home run should not have happened.
Seriously. No way. No how. Not with the kind of splits that were at play, as Ace of MLB Stats was kind enough to highlight:
Yeah, sorry. A matchup like that should not have resulted in a home run. It’s science.
And that’s not even the half of it. The pitch that Adams hit out was Kershaw’s curveball, aka “Public Enemy No. 1.” Before St. Louis’ burly first baseman poked it over the right field wall, here’s a list of left-handed batters who had taken Kershaw’s hook deep (via Brooks Baseball):
- ERROR 404: NOT FOUND
In other words: Nobody. Adams was the first.
So, no, that home run should not have happened. It was simply too improbable.
But then…that fits, doesn’t it?
Adams’ dinger put the cap on a series in which the Cardinals hit for quite a bit of power. And coming on the heels of what their offense did in the regular season, that in itself was improbable.
It wasn’t hard to look at what last year’s Cardinals were packing on offense and conclude that they had the goods to hit their way through October.
The Cardinals led everyone with their .330 average with runners in scoring position, giving their offense the “clutch” factor. And though they didn’t hit for a ton of power, they hit for enough to fall into a four-way tie for ninth in the NL in isolated power, according to FanGraphs.
As such, maybe it was inevitable that this year’s Cardinals offense would be the polar opposite.
The 2014 Cardinals only hit .254 with runners in scoring position, bolstering the notion that clutch hitting is not a repeatable skill. Worse, they finished second from the bottom of the NL in isolated power. Worse upon worse, they finished dead last in home runs.
So it’s no wonder many considered St. Louis’ bats to be a concern heading into its NLDS matchup with the Dodgers. I sure did, and so did Rob Neyer of FoxSports.com:
They’ve not been able to plug a big hole in right field, with first Allen Craig and then rookie Oscar Taveras struggling. In fact, the entire lineup’s been missing a big bat all season, with Matt Holliday and Jhonny Peralta providing the only real punch and the whole bench failing to add much at all.
With this offense going up against Kershaw, Zack Greinke and the rest of a Dodgers staff that posted a 3.40 ERA in 2014, simply hitting was going to be tough. Never mind hitting for power.
Shows what we know.
Before the Cardinals got a big homer from Adams in Game 4, they got big homers from Kolten Wong and Matt Carpenter in Game 3, a big homer from Carpenter in Game 2 and homers from Carpenter, Matt Holliday and Randal Grichuk in Game 1.
That’s seven homers in four games, or only nine fewer than the Cardinals hit in 26 September games.
Based on the regular-season numbers, this power surge was highly unlikely. And typically when we speak of highly unlikely things happening, the next thing to say is that they’re not likely to happen twice.
But that’s what’s weird about the Cardinals’ power outburst. Though they came into October as a team that didn’t hit for power, the NLDS was a reminder that they at least have guys who can hit for power.
That’s most obvious with Holliday, who has thunderous raw power. As evidenced by the 17 homers he accumulated in only 319 plate appearances last year, Adams also has good raw power. Carpenter’s home run power comes and goes, but his 2013 season is evidence that he at least has enough power to be a doubles machine. Wong, meanwhile, hit homers at nearly a 30-homer pace in his last 68 games.
Then there are the particulars who weren’t heard from in the NLDS but belong in the “Yeah, but he can hit for power” discussion. Peralta is one, and Yadier Molina is the other.
Looking ahead to the NLCS, the Cardinals’ power potential is therefore something that should be taken about as seriously as their NLDS fireworks show says it should be.
And that, naturally, makes them look like a more complete team.
Outside of Adam Wainwright in Game 1, each of the three starters the Cardinals threw at the Dodgers pitched well. That makes it easier to swallow a report from Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that Wainwright has an angry elbow. What makes that even easier to swallow is CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman’s report that Wainwright’s elbow may not be bad enough to sideline him.
If so, the Cardinals are approaching the NLCS with a strong starting rotation. From there, you can factor in a bullpen that allowed only four earned runs to the Dodgers. And then include a defense that, according to Baseball Prospectus, finished seventh in defensive efficiency in the regular season.
Oh, and don’t forget the fortitude.
“The mentality that we have is that we never give up,” Molina told Bernie Miklasz of the Post-Dispatch after Game 3. “We have a good team and we’ve been here before. We know what this is all about.”
It’s talk like this that gives non-Cardinals fans fits. But Molina is right about this not being the Cardinals’ first rodeo. He’s also right about the Cardinals having a good team, one that we already knew could pitch and play defense.
And now, just in time for a run at a third National League pennant in four years, it has a brand-new bang.
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.
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