Those tryouts for a “sixth starter” seemed to have just gotten a lot more significant today, after Adam Wainwright was shut down with what is being called a “significant elbow injury.”
Wainwright has had major improvement in almost every season since his debut in 2005, and over the last four seasons, Wainwright has a total 17.5 WAR; compared to the rest of the league, it’s 11th among all starters.
Compared to Chris Carpenter’s 9.9 WAR in those seasons, Wainwright will make out to be a huge loss in 2011.
The Cardinals will now have about five weeks to find a replacement and Tony La Russa has already declared that the solution for their rotation will come from within, which most likely won’t involve a current low-end free agent such as Kevin Millwood.
One likely candidate could be Kyle McClellan who, despite being a reliever through his Major League career, was already going to be tried as a starter this Spring and that chance seems to be a lot higher now.
McClellan has all the makings of a quality starter, with four pitches, including his fastball, that ranked at 3.5 runs above average. McClellan’s projected FIP for 2011 is a respectable 3.96 and if it could translate as a starter, the Cardinals would benefit more than expected.
On the prospect side, Shelby Miller and Lance Lynn are possibilities if the Cardinals are willing to stretch. Despite being the Cardinals No. 1 prospect, Miller seems more likely to begin the season at low-A for the Cardinals, with a lot left to accomplish. Miller has a high-quality fastball that can run up to 98 mph with improving command.
In his 104 innings last season, Miller also held left-handed hitters to a .194 average. Miller reached single-A last season and looks likely to be back there as I said, but if something clicks, Miller could see a couple starts come August or September.
Lance Lynn, who came into 2010 as the Cardinals No. 1 prospect, slid down to No. 7 this offseason, and the fact that he seems to be changing in a negative way won’t likely draw any confidence from the Cardinals.
Lynn’s FIP rose to 4.43 in his full season at Triple-A, which was a significant increase from his 3.47 in his 2009 season at the Double-A level. Either way, Lynn will have a chance with the Cardinals, because of the fact that he has significant experience as a starter.
Another name worth mentioning is P.J. Walters, who amassed a 3.87 ERA in 18 starts in Triple-A last season, despite having a 6.00 ERA in seven games last season with the Cardinals, but most of the runs given up were as a reliever, not a starter.
His threestarts seemed to be a story of extremes, as he started by throwing five shutout innings against San Diego, then lit-up by the Reds for seven runs in four innings. In his last outing against the Pirates, he only had to throw 80 pitches through seven innings, and didn’t surrender a run.
Adam Ottavino was also another player who made his debut in 2010 for the Cardinals. Despite posting a 8.46 ERA in 22 innings, Ottavino, who is recovering from a shoulder injury, had also made some real progress at Triple-A as well, as he had increased his strikeout rate while more than halving his walk rate from 2009. He only threw 47.2 innings in Memphis, but as a first-round pick, Ottavino seems to have a legit shot at getting a chance with the Cardinals.
If nothing from within can make an impact, the Cardinals might have to look outside and go after someone like Jeremy Bonderman or possibly Kevin Millwood.
Bonderman posted a 5.58 ERA in 29 starts with the Tigers last season, but if limited, he could have an impact and is currently projected to have a 4.58 ERA in 2010. In 31 starts with the Orioles, Millwood had a 5.10 ERA, but despite that, is also projected to improve, to a 4.63 ERA.
Despite where the Cardinals go for starts, beyond innings, no one can replace Adam Wainwright. Shelby Miller seems to be the future for the Cardinals, but between now and then, the Cardinals must find someone or find themselves in fourth place come July.
FIP = Fielder Independent Pitching on an ERA scale
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com