Free agency always goes into the Major League Baseball offseason as the belle of the winter ball, snatching the headlines and hogging the discussions and debates during the fall.
With this offseason’s crop of starting pitchers and power hitters, that early trend will spike in the days after the World Series and into the start of free agency.
However, the trade market should not be ignored through it all. The likely available pieces are abundant, and there are impact players that could wind up significantly altering the game’s landscape going into next season as blockbuster trades steal the show in a carryover from July’s memorable non-waiver deadline.
While the star names are going to be thrown about in rumors, Cincinnati Reds All-Star third baseman Todd Frazier could end up as the under-the-radar trade chip that is the steal of the offseason trade party. Any potential deal for him will not come from the clearance rack, but considering the kind of production he is capable of and the team-friendly contract he is bringing with him, he becomes quite attractive to teams needing offense.
Prying away Frazier could be a difficult task for a pursuing team. The Reds refused to move him in July when his stock was the highest it’s ever been after a first half that saw him hit .284/.337/.585 with a .922 OPS and 25 home runs in 374 plate appearances.
Those first 85 games had people believing the 29-year-old was finally breaking into superstardom. Those people included the Reds front office.
“No, I wouldn’t trade him,” Reds general manager Walt Jocketty told reporters in July, via John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer. “I think all that talk is coming from the New York media.”
At the time, that seemed like a logical accusation as New York Mets third baseman David Murphy was still on the disabled list and the team needed a shot of offense, which they eventually got from healing players and Yoenis Cespedes.
ESPN Insider Buster Olney helped fan the flames a month earlier when he suggested the Reds should consider offers for Frazier because his value would never be higher. Also, Olney noted, Frazier’s most attractive attribute, power from the right side, is “the most coveted asset” in the game.
Other media outlets were backing Jocketty’s statements rather than flying the flag for trading Frazier. In the days after the Reds hosted the All-Star Game and Frazier put on an electric show in winning the Home Run Derby, CBS Sports insider Jon Heyman cited people in the industry as believing the Reds would try to lock Frazier into a contract extension.
That has yet to happen, and as it stands, Frazier will make $7.5 million next season before hitting arbitration. He will become a free agent after the 2017 season. Assuming Frazier is even a 20-25-homer player over the next two seasons, there would be a deep market for his services if the Reds dangled him.
The red flags come in Frazier’s age—he will be 30 next season, but hardly over the hill—and his second half last season. The age can be overlooked because an acquiring team is under no obligation to sign Frazier to an extension.
His second-half collapse cannot be ignored, however. Frazier hit .220/.274/.390 with a .664 OPS and 10 home runs in his final 304 plate appearances. Those dips are glaring after such a gaudy first half, and after combing through the trends, Neil Weinberg of FanGraphs realized Frazier was swinging more while not upping his contact, and pitchers were throwing more inside fastballs. Frazier did not adjust.
That hardly means Frazier is done as a productive major league hitter. It could be a simple correction of a hitter performing above his head in the first half and the law of averages taking over in the second. While it diminishes the trade value he carried through the All-Star break, it does not strip him of all of it.
Frazier’s power has not deserted him, and teams have not stopped wanting it. That, the potential to hit at an elite level clearly present, his attractive contract for the next two years—arbitration could get him a significant raise, limiting the value—and his being a solid defender at third base means if the Reds put him on the block, teams will come hunting.
Assuming he costs a team at least one of its top prospects, as Charlie Wilmoth of MLB Trade Rumors predicts, Frazier could easily make such a deal worthwhile. He is a two-time All-Star and is capable of providing middle-of-the-order power, though his home-road splits indicate a hitter-friendly park is a necessity.
The trade market could be deep, and for teams not wanting to shell out the money or years for the likes of Cespedes, Chris Davis or Justin Upton, Frazier is a strong alternative. The Reds just have to decide to put him on the market, which should develop in the next month as the winter meetings approach.
All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.
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