Finally, after much delay, Chris Davis and Justin Upton are off the board, but Yoenis Cespedes has yet to escape his winter purgatory as the MLB offseason draws to a close.
Based on some puzzling comments from the New York Mets’ top decision-maker, it doesn’t sound like a return to Citi Field is in the works. But there is a real chance Cespedes could remain in the National League East in 2016.
Cespedes is easily the most prominent big leaguer who’s left unemployed, but he’s far from the the only quality player who’s still on the job hunt.
Aside from those free-agent question marks, there’s also room in this week’s round of questions and answers for a breakdown of a new big-time trade chip and an examination of all the latest on the Aroldis Chapman front.
Will Jonathan Lucroy Be with the Milwaukee Brewers on Opening Day?
Jonathan Lucroy isn’t afraid to speak his mind.
“I’m not going to sit here and say we’re going to compete for the playoffs this year,” Lucroy told Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. “If I did that, you’d call me a liar. I’d lose credibility and respect.”
As the backstop went on to admit, “Rebuilding is not a lot of fun for any veteran guy.” The Brew Crew, which dropped 94 contests in 2015 and has been shedding valuable assets at a furious rate, is clearly rebuilding.
But that doesn’t mean jettisoning the 2014 NL All-Star is the ideal way to proceed with the teardown. As Haudricourt argued, moving Lucroy now would be a classic example of “selling low.” Last season, the right-handed hitter posted just a .717 OPS as a busted toe and a concussion derailed his campaign.
The best route for the Brewers would be to slow-play it with the 29-year-old.
What Milwaukee needs to do is let Lucroy regain his 2014 form, which saw him land in the No. 4 spot on the Senior Circuit MVP ballot. The team could then spark a bidding war in July as October contenders jostle to find that final piece.
Based on the numbers, the Seattle Mariners look like a potential summer match. Last season, M’s catchers combined to post some staggeringly bad numbers. As a group, the players were worst in the bigs in categories like average (.159) and OPS (.464).
As Dave Heller of Fox Sports wrote, one complication is that the Mariners have already imported Chris Iannetta to step in behind the plate. Then again, Iannetta hit .188 in 2015, and if there’s one takeaway from Seattle general manager Jerry Dipoto’s brief reign in the Pacific Northwest, it’s that the exec loves to make trades.
The Answer: Yes, the team will wait until July to trade him.
Is Aroldis Chapman Going to Get Suspended?
Aroldis Chapman won’t be facing any charges for an alleged domestic dispute from last October, per Ken Davidoff of the New York Post.
As Davidoff reported, here’s the breakdown about how the decision was made: “Broward Assistant State Attorney Stefanie Newman wrote in a close-out memo Wednesday that conflicting accounts and insufficient evidence from the October incident made a conviction unlikely.”
Even if Chapman is out of the legal woods, the memo, which can be read in its entirety via Diana Moskovitz of Deadspin, provides plenty of reason to believe there’s still a lot left to be determined about the closer’s playing status as MLB ramps up its investigation.
The memo describes a slew of “undisputed facts,” and one of the ugliest relates to Chapman’s shooting his firearm eight times in his detached garage: “Several bullet strikes were identified by police on the wall and concrete floor where the defendant may have shot into, or where the bullets had ricocheted when he fired his weapon inside the garage.”
That passage reveals reckless and horrendously bad decision-making from Chapman. It’s not just an awful look, but also bad timing for the New York Yankees relief ace.
Baseball implemented its new domestic violence policy in August, and commissioner Rob Manfred has the latitude to dish out a suspension even if a player isn’t convicted of a crime, as Davidoff noted.
During the recent quarterly meeting of MLB owners, Manfred foreshadowed what could be coming down. “When you have a new policy, the first ones take on a special significance in terms of tone and precedent and all those things,” Manfred said Thursday, per Davidoff.
Maybe the commissioner won’t hand Chapman a major suspension. But only a fool would count on seeing the four-time All-Star in pinstripes on Opening Day.
The Answer: Yes, Chapman will be suspended.
What’s Up with the Infield Market?
Winter is here, and it’s been especially unkind to one particular group of players:
Even after turning in a dud of a year in 2015 (.233 average), Ian Desmond is the headliner of that bunch. Like Howie Kendrick, the longtime Washington Nationals shortstop is lugging around a qualifying offer, and the attached draft-pick compensation is crushing his market.
It takes some digging to find any reported landing spots for the three-time Silver Slugger.
Back in December, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reported that the Houston Astros were “eyeing” Desmond to play somewhere other than shortstop.
Aside from Desmond and Kendrick, the draft-pick baggage is stalling things out for all the other infielders.
From the perspective of a club, there’s no sense in rummaging through the bargain bin for second-tier guys like David Freese, Jimmy Rollins or Juan Uribe until they find out just how low the price will drop on Desmond and Kendrick.
They aren’t infielders, but Dexter Fowler and Yovani Gallardo are the other two qualifying-offer casualties. With the current collective bargaining agreement set to expire Dec. 1, 2016, remedying the QO-induced quagmire looms as a major talking point.
The Answer: The qualifying offer system is bogging everything down.
Who’s Going to Sign Yoenis Cespedes?
For a guy who literally runs the club and signs the checks, New York Mets CEO Fred Wilpon sure doesn’t sound like he has the slightest clue about what’s going on in Queens.
“Your guess is as good as mine,” Wilpon said when reporters asked about the team’s chances of bringing back Yoenis Cespedes, via Ken Davidoff. “I’ll stick with what [GM] Sandy [Alderson] said.”
As Davidoff detailed, Alderson explained that the Mets continue to talk with the Cuban’s camp. Per Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, New York is “unwilling” to give Cespedes more than three years, but their division neighbor the Washington Nationals have offered five.
Signing La Potencia would likely require the Nats to clear space by shipping out another outfielder already on the roster, but it would be opportunistic for the team to bring in the game-changer. With Bryce Harper—the unanimous NL MVP in 2015—only under team control for three more seasons, this is the moment for Washington to strike.
As Rosenthal sees it, the Nationals have the ideal new boss to help Cespedes thrive: “[Dusty] Baker speaks Spanish. His specialty is connecting with players. He managed Barry Bonds with the Giants and a Cuban star with the Reds, closer Aroldis Chapman. He surely would welcome the opportunity to manage Cespedes.”
Jon Heyman of MLB Network and WFAN reported that Washington is moving aggressively to snap up the masher:
The Nationals should also look into the idea of giving Cespedes an opt-out after three seasons that lines up with when Harper could potentially bolt in free agency.
Such a clause would give Washington the chance to capitalize on Harper’s tenure while providing Cespedes with the incentive to post monster numbers before seeking yet another payday at the end of the 2018 season.
The Answer: Washington will land the slugger.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
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