When San Francisco Giants starter Jake Peavy toed the rubber in Game 1 of the National League Division Series against the Washington Nationals, he was winless in five postseason starts with an abysmal 9.27 ERA and a fitting 1.925 WHIP.
Well, Peavy and his teammates walked off as winners thanks to his efforts, generally solid relief pitching and timely hitting from Joe Panik, Buster Posey and Brandon Belt. It was a huge win for the Giants.
Next up is a Game 2 matchup between Nationals ace Jordan Zimmermann (14-5, 2.66 ERA, 1.072 WHIP) and veteran Giants hurler Tim Hudson (9-13, 3.57, 1.231) Saturday afternoon.
Here are some keys for each team to take a critical Game 2.
Keys for the Nationals
Make Tim Hudson Pay for His Mistakes
In the final month of the regular season, Hudson went 0-4 with an 8.72 ERA and a .357/.400/.531 slash line for opposing batters. It wasn’t pretty.
In digging a bit deeper on his player card at BrooksBaseball.net, we see that almost every pitch in his repertoire failed him.
For those of you who may be unfamiliar with what those numbers indicate, it is the batting average on balls that were put in the field of play. What they tell us is that far too many batters squared up Hudson’s offerings over the last month.
There is a certain amount of luck involved, of course, but the bottom line is that Hudson isn’t locating the ball very well. If the Nationals can jump on his mistakes, it could mean an early lead. And with the quality of the Nationals’ pitching staff, early leads are usually held.
Keep Joe Panik Contained
It goes without saying that Zimmermann has to keep Posey, Hunter Pence and Pablo Sandoval in check during Game 2. For as dangerous as those three can be, however, it will be as important to keep Panik off the basepaths.
He’s been a terror.
Starting on Aug. 2 through the end of the regular season, the second baseman put up a .338/.367/.414 slash line with eight doubles and 25 runs scored. In the wild-card matchup with the Pittsburgh Pirates, he went 3-for-5. And during Game 1 on Friday, he went 2-for-5, driving in one run and scoring another after a huge triple to lead off the seventh inning.
He’s been so good, he’s set a franchise record.
Another thing to keep in mind: In three games at Nationals Park during the regular season, Panik slashed out at .417/.462/.667. Notably, he had a big three-run home run that helped end a 10-game winning streak the Nationals had been on in August.
It won’t just be on the Nationals’ starters, though, as Panik can start a late-inning rally, just as he did in Game 1. It is imperative that the left-handed hitter is off the basepaths throughout the contest.
On the bright side, Panik is 0-for-3 vs. Zimmermann, so if the big right-hander can replicate his past success, the Nationals already have an advantage.
Zimmermann Must Keep the Big Guys Down
We’ve already touched on the need to keep Sandoval, Posey and Pence contained, but two of them are of particular interest to Zimmermann.
Of the three, Sandoval and Pence have given Zimmermann fits over their careers. In 20 at-bats, for example, Pence is slashing out at .400/.455/.700 with two home runs and four RBI. Meanwhile, Sandoval has a .462/.500/.538 slash line with a double in 13 at-bats.
The bottom line is this: If Zimmermann can limit the damage from the players who have historically given him trouble, he will breathe life into the crowd and give confidence to his teammates.
Keys for the Giants
Find a Way to Get to Zimmermann Early—and Often
On Aug. 23, the Giants got off to a 2-0 first-inning lead thanks to a two-run home run by Pence. After that, Zimmermann retired 23 of the next 28 hitters and was in control throughout.
“He didn’t get rattled at all (after the homer),” center fielder Denard Span noted, via CSN Washington’s Mark Zuckerman. “If anything, it seemed like he just focused a little bit more and buckled down and kept them right there.”
It is what he’s done for the majority of his career.
For the Giants to find success, they need to keep the pressure on. That means working the count and not letting Zimmermann take control of an at-bat. It is easier written than accomplished, to be sure, but it is what must be done.
Keep Denard Span and Anthony Rendon off the Basepaths
Attempting to keep the No. 1 and No. 2 hitters in manager Matt Williams’ lineup off the bases is common sense. After all, the fewer run-scoring opportunities the middle of the Nationals’ batting order has, the better it is for the Giants.
Doing it against Span and Anthony Rendon takes on added value, as Thomas Boswell of The Washington Post explains:
In the postseason, top-of-the-order, all-fields hitters with high on-base percentages, low strikeouts, stolen base speed, bunting guile and hit-and-run creativity often have a better chance to cope with the pitching aces of playoff teams than free swingers who can be neutered by pure swing-and-miss stuff. …
… Both are better base runners than they are sprinters; they get fine jumps, read balls in the air accurately and cut bases sharply with no waste.
They are just dynamic ballplayers.
And since Hudson no longer has “swing-and-miss stuff” he is going to have to locate effectively and change speeds if he hopes to keep them off the bases. For the season, Span scored 94 runs and had a .355 on-base percentage while Rendon scored 111 times and finished with a .351 OBP.
If the Giants can jump on Zimmermann early and hold the top of the order in check, they could very well head to AT&T Park up 2-0 in the best-of-five series. If not, the Nationals may even the NLDS at a game apiece and gain some needed momentum for Game 3.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference. Game information is courtesy of MLB.com.
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