It’s time to do a little Washington Nationals housecleaning today and cover a few things that I haven’t had time to cover in any great detail.
Well, that’s not true of course. I’ve covered all of this in great detail. But let’s cover it some more, shall we?
Adam LaRoche and first base: Once Derrek Lee signed his one-year, $8 million contract a few days ago, it seemed obvious that it was just a matter of time before Adam LaRoche signed with the Nationals. Two teams needed a first baseman and there were two decent first baseman still available.
However, the clock continues to tick and the Nationals still don’t have a first baseman. Both sides believe they hold all the negotiation cards and are not budging one bit. The team won’t give LaRoche a three-year deal because they are the only team that wants him and LaRoche won’t budge because he knows that the team faces a public relations nightmare if they begin the 2011 season with Casey Kotchman at first base.
I think LaRoche is going to get his third year, though probably as a team option with a hefty buyout. In the end, both teams need each other and all the stupidity on both sides won’t keep this deal from getting done.
Carl Pavano will choose between the Twins and Nationals: As things stand today, Washington’s offer is bigger but Pavano would rather return to the Twins. So it becomes a matter of money. If money doesn’t matter, he’ll re-sign with Minnesota. But if it does, he’ll join Jayson Werth in Washington because he, like Werth, took the biggest offer.
My question is if the Nationals “win,” who loses their spot in the rotation? John Lannan, Jordan Zimmermann and Jason Marquis are safe. But the team has several young starters who need to be vetted. Are they going to be quality starters? There is only one way to find out.
Livan Hernadez is certainly not a “young starter” but he was the team’s best pitcher in 2010, winning 10 games and finishing the season as the only starter with an ERA under 4.00. He was sturdy and durable as always, pitching over 200 innings for the 10th time in his career.
So unless he implodes in spring training, he has to own that fourth spot in the rotation.
Even if Pavano doesn’t sign with the Nationals, that leaves only one spot in the rotation for Yunesky Maya and Ross Detwiler. Maya, a Cuban defector, is considered a certain number-three starter. And Ross Detwiler—the sixth overall pick in the 2007 draft—has shown enough in 24 career starts to justify a make-or-break chance to join the rotation.
And what about J.D. Martin, the 27-year-old former first-round pick who has a career 4.32 ERA in 24 starts while allowing just 2.5 walks per nine-innings? His 4.13 ERA last season was third best among the 11 pitchers who started more than four games.
And the Nationals re-signed Chien-Ming Wang last month because they have every reason to believe he will return to the major leagues sometime in 2011. Wang told the China Times over the weekend that he expected to return no later than May. With the exception of 2009 (his surgery-shortened season), Wang has averaged 14-5, 3.79 over four years with the Yankees, including back-to-back 19-win season in 2006 and 2007.
If he is 100 percent, or close to it, then Wang has to be added to the rotation.
It makes no sense to add a 35-year-old to the rotation and block Martin, Detwiler and Maya as well as essentially giving up on Chien-Ming Wang. Here’s hoping that Pavano choose comfort over dollars and remains with Minnesota.
Who’s in left? As mentioned in several other stories, I think that Michael Morse should be the team’s every day left-fielder. Over his career, he’s averaged .291-20-85 over 162 games and last season hit 15 home runs in just 266 at-bats.
With the exception of one month, Roger Bernadina had a horrid 2010 season and yet manager Jim Riggleman has said over and over that he intends to platoon Bernadina and Morse in left. And now they have added Rick Ankiel, who in 2007-2008 hit a combined .270-36-110 in 585 at-bats, roughly a full major league season.
In the last two seasons, however, he’s hit just .232/.298/.388 with 17 home runs and 62 RBI.
Like in any job, you are judged not on what you have done but what you are doing now. That especially applies to car salesman and baseball players.
My guess is that Morse will be buried in the depth chart until management realizes that mediocre players—Bernadina and Ankiel—don’t make a mediocre team better. If Morse plays every day, he could hit .280-20-80 and give the Nationals two solid corner outfielders.
But I wouldn’t count on the team having that personnel epiphany until later in the season.
That’s a big relief: For the first time, the Nationals will have a truly effective relief corps. Here are the seven likely pitchers who will comprise the bullpen:
Cole Kimball: 8-1, 2.17, 5.7/4.5/11.6, 18 saves (minor leagues)
Doug Slaten: 4-1, 3.10, 7.5/4.2/8.0
Colin Balester: 0-1, 2.57, 6.4/4.7/12.0
Sean Burnett: 1-7, 2.14, 7.4/2.9/8.9, 3 saves
Tyler Clippard: 11-8, 3.07, 6.8/4.8/11.1, 1 save
Drew Storen: 4-4, 3.58, 7.8/3.6/8.5, 5 saves
Henry Rodriguez: 1-0, 4.55, 8.2/4.3/10.5
If the team’s starters can just give the Nationals five or six good innings every night, the bullpen has the talent to help win a lot of games.
I think the Nationals are slowly coming together as a team. No, they aren’t going to contend in 2011 though they might—or might not—come within a few games of .500. That said, they certainly have enough quality young players to make a run towards respectability.
That’s why it is terribly important not to block the kids with potential from the major league roster because some guy near retirement has in the past not sucked some of the time.
I’d rather watch one of Yunesky Maya and Ross Detwiler succeed and the other fail then not see either of them get the chance.
Thanks, Zack! Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman reported on Sunday that not only did Zack Greinke turn down a trade to the Washington Nationals last month, he turned down a guaranteed multi-year contract extension as well.
I am so grateful that the 26-year-old saved the Nationals four top prospects and conservatively $40 million, perhaps more. You see, Greinke has pitched in seven major league seasons and had one outstanding year—in 2009—when he won the American League Cy Young Award.
In the other six seasons, however, his average season was just 10-13 with a 4.28 ERA. Over that same period, the Nationals Livan Hernandez averaged a record of 13-13, 4.37.
Last year, Hernandez had a record of 10-12, 3.66 while Greinke finished at 10-14, 4.17. Greinke made $7 million last year while Livan made less than a tenth of that.
No, Livan Hernandez is not as good as Zack Greinke. That’s what makes their similar records so disconcerting. There is just no way that Greinke was worth four prospects, especially if one of them was Jordan Zimmermann.
Sometimes, the best trades are the ones that are never made.
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