In spending hundreds of millions of dollars over the last few years, the Los Angeles Dodgers did their best John Hammond impression. In their pursuit of a championship, they spared no expense.
So, it’s more than a bit jarring to see the Dodgers in the position they’re in now. It turns out that even they have limits, and those limits have put them in a difficult position this offseason.
If you’re just now joining us, the two biggest pitchers on the free-agent market are spoken for. Ace left-hander David Price joined the Boston Red Sox on a seven-year, $217 million deal Tuesday. On Friday, the Arizona Diamondbacks shocked everyone by luring Zack Greinke away from the Dodgers on a six-year, $206.5 million deal, as first reported by Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports and confirmed by Steve Gilbert of MLB.com.
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It’s hard to fathom Los Angeles didn’t land either one of these guys. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported last month Greinke and Price were the club’s top two targets. More recently, Rosenthal reported the Dodgers (apparently taking my advice) had discussed signing both of them.
Be it one or both, it was easy to believe L.A. would get its wish. This is a team that spent over $300 million on payroll in 2015 and only has, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, about $175 million in guaranteed salaries committed to 2016. That leaves plenty of space for one or two aces.
Oh, and there’s also the fact the Dodgers badly need starting pitching. They still have the always-amazing Clayton Kershaw atop their rotation, and 2015 comeback story Brett Anderson follows him. But behind the two of them, there are only question marks.
The Dodgers don’t need just any starting pitcher. Based on what happened in 2015, they had the right idea in putting Greinke and Price atop their offseason wish list. Here’s ESPN Stats & Info:
Knowing this, the Dodgers can’t respond to their failed pursuits of Greinke and Price by playing it safe. They’ll need to keep up their pursuit of aces.
And they’re not totally out of options on that front.
It’s not just Greinke and Price who are spoken for. Jordan Zimmermann is also taken, as he signed a $110 million contract with the Detroit Tigers last weekend. In short order, that’s three of the open market’s four best pitchers who are off the block.
Of that group, the last man standing is Johnny Cueto. According to Chris Cotillo of SB Nation, Cueto is about to replace Greinke as the man in the crosshairs of both the Dodgers and their rival San Francisco Giants:
Despite being an apparent Plan C, Cueto isn’t a bad option. The soon-to-be 30-year-old is the owner of a 3.30 career ERA and two top-five finishes in National League Cy Young Award voting. And as Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports pointed out, Cueto has actually been better than Greinke on the whole since 2011.
It won’t be surprising, however, if the Dodgers don’t go the extra mile for Cueto.
A couple of days ago, L.A. president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman hinted in comments to Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register that he’s wary of taking risks on the free-agent market. If that’s what caused Friedman to back away from Greinke and Price, he may be even quicker to back away from Cueto, whose ace status took a hit when he stumbled with the Kansas City Royals down the stretch in 2015. Also, Cueto’s elbow comes with question marks.
If the Dodgers pass on Cueto, they’ll be left with the open market’s list of No. 2/3-type starters. Of those, Jeff Samardzija is the one in whom ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark said the Dodgers have “strong interest.”
That’s understandable. Dodgers general manager Farhan Zaidi was part of an Oakland A’s front office that traded for Samardzija in 2014, at which point the right-hander was heading toward his first All-Star appearance and a 2.99 ERA across 219.2 innings. Though he struggled to the tune of a 4.96 ERA with the Chicago White Sox in 2015, Samardzija doesn’t appear broken. His stuff is fine, and his 30-year-old arm has less miles on it than most other 30-year-old arms.
Still, the fact Samardzija struggled so mightily in 2015 could keep the Dodgers from paying him the $90-100 million it’s likely going to take to sign him. Despite his well-preserved arm, his age could too.
“We expect to have a younger team going forward,” Zaidi said at an October news conference, via Pedro Moura of the Orange County Register.
That may have sounded like just talk at the time, but not so much now. Concerns about age could well be what kept the Dodgers from matching bids for Greinke (32) and Price (30). If so, it’s not difficult to imagine that age concerns could keep them from matching bids on Cueto and/or Samardzija.
If age is that much of a deal-breaker for the Dodgers, 28-year-old sinkerballer Mike Leake could emerge as their preferred target. But since Leake doesn’t even remotely resemble an ace pitcher, L.A. may be forced to take its search for a more youthful ace to the trade market.
That’s where there’s at least one intriguing option. According to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney, the Dodgers are one team with interest in 25-year-old right-hander Shelby Miller of the Atlanta Braves:
Miller’s availability may not actually be in question. The Braves don’t want to say it, but their trade of Andrelton Simmons sent a strong signal the “remodeling” they began last year is actually a full rebuild. And after posting a 3.02 ERA in 205.1 innings in 2015, Miller could fetch a rebuild-boosting package in a trade.
But if the Dodgers are going to surrender a great, big bucket of young talent in a deal for a young ace starter, they may aim a little higher.
Two names that have often been speculative fodder for the winter trade block are A’s right-hander Sonny Gray and White Sox left-hander Chris Sale, both of whom are Cy Young-caliber pitchers. And though their availability has been in doubt, Rosenthal reported “some within the industry” think that could change.
And those two may not be the only options. Rosenthal also name-dropped White Sox left-hander Jose Quintana and Cleveland Indians right-handers Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar as possible options. None of them is Gray or Sale, but any of them would make a fine addition to any staff.
The Dodgers might just be able to pull off a deal for one of the names mentioned above. One presumes young shortstop Corey Seager isn’t going anywhere, but L.A. could be willing to move left-hander Julio Urias, right-hander Jose De Leon and others from a deep stable of young pitching.
Another idea would be to build a package around right fielder Yasiel Puig. He may be enigmatic, but he’s also very young, very talented and signed through 2019 at a cheap rate. That’s a good trade chip.
In a nutshell: The Dodgers may be reeling from missing out on Greinke and Price, but their search for pitching isn’t down for the count just yet. They still have assets, and they still have options.
Of course, that means the one thing the Dodgers don’t have is excuses. Nobody’s going to go along with them if they continue to miss on targets and throw their hands up and say, “Well, we tried.”
That’s not going to cut it. They’ve been hesitant to do so to this point, but the only way the Dodgers are going to salvage their pitching search is by acting like, well, the Dodgers.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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