The Detroit Tigers don’t have long to decide about the future of catcher Alex Avila:
Detroit would be wise to re-sign Avila for another season. A catcher’s first job is to play solid defense, and to say Avila was solid behind the dish in 2014 would be an understatement—he was outstanding.
In addition to handling Detroit’s pitching staff with aplomb, Avila was highly effective at neutralising the opposition’s running game. The 27-year-old gunned down 34 percent of would-be base stealers (second in MLB) this season.
Avila also made one of the best defensive plays of the year when he climbed the screen at Comerica Park to make a Spider-Man-style catch in September.
His excellent defensive play was recognised when he finished among the finalists for the 2014 American League Gold Glove—ultimately won by Kansas City’s Salvador Perez.
On the offensive side, Avila’s contributions have caused more than a few groans in Motown in recent times. This is especially true for fans who still see him through the prism of his breakout season three years ago. In 2011, Avila emerged as Detroit’s everyday catcher, with his offensive numbers (.295, 18 HR, 82 RBI) convincing many people that he would be the Tigers’ everyday backstop for the next decade.
As the table below shows, Avila has been unable to reproduce anywhere near that level since. In fact, since the initial big dip in 2012, his productivity has dropped a little more each year.
Avila is not the offensive player he was in 2011, and he may never be again. However, what his bat does provide for the team is by no means terrible. His ability to walk and provide occasional pop helped him post an OPS of .686 this season—not far below the AL mean (.706).
Also, that bit of pop has often been of a timely nature. According to Matthew B. Mowery of The Oakland Press, three of Avila’s 11 home runs this year gave Detroit the lead and each came in the eighth inning or later—two in extra innings.
His left-handed bat also provides a good balance to Detroit’s lineup. Of the Tigers’ nine everyday players in 2014, only Avila and switch-hitter Victor Martinez hit from the left side. Detroit cannot afford to lose a lefty, especially since prospect Steven Moya may not be ready to face big league pitching next season.
So, with all things considered, where does Avila’s productivity place him among his peers? Perhaps the sabermetricians can decide for us.
As wins above replacement (WAR) combines both offensive and defensive data, it is the most comprehensive sabermetric stat for evaluating players. Avila’s WAR (2.1) ranked 13th out of 23 MLB catchers (minimum 400 at bats) in 2014, according to FanGraphs.
It is fair to conclude from this information that Avila is an average MLB player. So why should an ambitious, big-spending club like the Tigers settle for mediocrity?
Because picking up Avila’s option is only a one-year commitment, and the team will need him more in 2015 than it will afterward.
James McCann is the heir apparent at catcher, and he should be ready to usurp Avila’s position soon. The 24-year-old made his MLB debut in 2014 and has impressed at all levels in the Tigers system. He is close but not ready yet for everyday duties.
The optimal scenario for next year would be these two playing a catcher platoon. That would enable McCann to ease his way into the Detroit lineup and prove himself at this level.
At $5.4 million, Avila is not an expensive 12-month option for Detroit. There is also a chance he could recapture his 2011 form. You never know.
Call him mediocre if you like, but bringing Avila back is a pragmatic decision for the Tigers. With a shortage of lefty hitters and no ready successors, he is their best choice for starting backstop next Opening Day.
Worries about his three concussions last season have also been put to bed after a recent interview with Chris Iott of MLive.
Of course, Dave Dombrowski, the Tigers’ president, CEO and general manager, may choose to scour the trade market in search a new catcher. That is never out of the question.
If not, Avila will do—and be just fine too.
Unless otherwise stated, all stats in this article are courtesy of ESPN.com.
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