An eternal hope exists among Cubs fans that every year is “their year.” Even when the Cubs were rebuilding in the first years of the Theo Epstein era, it didn’t dent their optimism.
But 2015 rookie stars Kris Bryant, Addison Russell and Kyle Schwarber gave Cubs fans a hope never seen before in Wrigley Field, sports’ version of a psychological torture chamber.
Forget about 2016 being their year. This is supposed to be the Cubs’ decade. A group of promising 20-something position players have traded hope of just one World Series for the expectation of many and a sustained success the organization has never enjoyed.
There’s a tangible potential with this group, one that casts Bryant, Russell, Schwarber and Co. as an offensive powerhouse. Will we see that in 2016, though? Probably not.
Breathe, Cubs fans. This team still will make the playoffs this season, which will be only the third time in Cubs’ history the team has done so in back-to-back years (the organization, then called the Chicago White Stockings made the playoffs in 1885 and 1886, but no one cares because the players’ parking lot was filled with horses and buggies).
“We’re aware of the new expectations this year and how a team might respond but we’re not concerned about it because we really trust the makeup of these players both individually and as a group,” Epstein, the team’s president of baseball operations, said.
“Our young players are really mature, really grounded and are in it for the right reasons and have experienced a lot already in their young careers and I think that will help them avoid the ‘sophomore slump’ and help them adjust to playing with some greater expectations on their shoulders—both as individuals after their seasons last year and as a team given what they accomplished last year.”
But avoiding that “sophomore slump” will be enough of a challenge. The aforementioned rookie trio had an advantage over major league pitchers. They faced them for the first time. Now opposing pitchers have a season of tape on 2015 rookies and an offseason to study it.
In 2016, Bryant, Schwarber and Russell will be challenged unlike they have at the major league level.
And the canyon-wide gap between the offensive team the Cubs were in 2015 and one that can swing its bats to the World Series is too large to close in one season.
In 2015, the Cubs were tied for 15th in runs scored at 689, one above the league average. The league-leading Blue Jays scored 202 more runs that the Cubs in 2015, an average of 1.25 more runs per game. The Cubs were tied for 17th with an OPS of .719, .02 points behind the league average.
Despite the fanfare, the Cubs were an average offensive team.
So, expect slumps this year. Expect games in which the Cubs are shut out. This team is still developing. That’s why the 2016 roster wasn’t built upon the team’s potential ability to score runs.
The Cubs are much more likely to win because of the pitching trio of Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester and offseason signee John Lackey than their young players turning the team into an offensive juggernaut. Aside from Lackey, the Cubs’ major signings were second baseman Ben Zobrist and outfielder Jason Heyward.
Both boasted a .359 on-base percentage in 2015, but aren’t power bats capable of carrying the Cubs to big-run totals.
Heyward’s $184 million contract was justified, in part, by his defensive metrics. In 2015, he was second among outfielders with an ultimate zone rating (UZR) of 22.6, according to FanGraphs, a metric that quantifies the number of runs a player saves or gives up as a result of fielding.
Formerly that kind of money was reserved for a player capable of chasing a Triple Crown. But now a player’s defensive ability is quantifiable and, more importantly, valued.
“The threat always is that you want to be better in a sense or greater is the enemy of good sometimes or something to that effect,” Cubs manager Joe Maddon said. “I don’t want us to think that way [that the team has to achieve big-picture offensive goals]. Just go out there, beat the day, do the work properly, maintain our humility and if we do that everything is going to work out.”
Maddon is acknowledging that it’s a process. The team is still young and developing. Eventually this team might be an offensive power. They may eventually win games by smashing home runs and lighting up the scoreboard.
We may see some of that in 2016. But fans who want to see the Cubs win entirely with offensive firepower this season?
All they’ll have is hope.
All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.
Seth Gruen covers baseball for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @SethGruen.
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