Somewhere out there, you just know that a handful of no-name minor league hurlers are busy trying to learn how to throw a knuckleball right now.
Here’s a few words of wisdom to those guys: Fellas, it’s not as easy as R.A. Dickey is making it look.
Dickey, as you’ve no doubt noticed by now, is on a roll. The New York Mets‘ resident knuckleballer pitched his second consecutive one-hitter on Monday night against the Baltimore Orioles, striking out 13 in the process.
It’s now been several weeks since Dickey last allowed an earned run. His scoreless streak stands at 42.2 consecutive innings, and it seems to be a near certainty that he will break Dwight Gooden’s club record of 49 straight innings without an earned run that he set in 1985.
Heck, Dickey could break that in his next start, which is slated to come against the New York Yankees at Citi Field on Sunday night. Conveniently, ESPN will have the prime-time coverage.
The really sexy question is whether or not Dickey has it in him to break the all-time record for consecutive innings without an earned run allowed. That would be 59, of course, set by former Los Angeles Dodgers great Orel Hershiser in 1988.
Coincidentally, that’s a record that Dickey could conceivably break in Los Angeles against the Dodgers if he stays on his regular rest. Wouldn’t that be something?
It would indeed, but let’s not jump to any conclusions here. This is the kind of discussion that requires some serious analysis.
Now Wait Just a Minute…
Dickey has thrown back-to-back one-hitters, striking out 25 and walking two in the process. Is he really that good, or is this a fluke?
I’d say it’s a mix of both.
One thing that will always be true about the knuckleball is that it’s a gimmick pitch. If every pitcher threw one, hitters would have no problem hitting it. Since only a select few pitchers have ever thrown a knuckleball and succeeded with it, it’s simply not a pitch that hitters see very often.
Especially if said knuckleballer is in the other league.
American League hitters are in uncharted territory against Dickey, so it’s easy to sympathize with Dickey’s last two victims: the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles. These are two teams that used to face Tim Wakefield a lot, but his knuckler and Dickey’s knuckler are two completely different pitches. Dickey’s is a lot harder, and he can put it where he wants a lot easier than Wakefield ever could.
So it’s no surprise that the Rays and Orioles looked totally overmatched against Dickey’s knuckleball. The Rays tried swinging at it, but that didn’t work, as Dickey piled up a season-high 22 swinging strikes against them, according to Baseball-Reference.com. The Orioles were more patient, and that didn’t work either. Against them, Dickey racked up 32 looking strikes, also a season high.
Both teams were completely overmatched, but that doesn’t mean Dickey is completely unhittable. Having seen him before and knowing what to expect really helps.
Just ask the Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins, the only two teams that have faced Dickey twice this season. The Braves couldn’t do much against Dickey back on April 7th, but they came back and got him for eight hits and eight earned runs just over a week later on April 18th. The Marlins were similarly flabbergasted by Dickey’s knuckler on April 25th, but they came back and got him for nine hits in six innings on May 12th.
Dickey hasn’t had to face the same opponent a second time since then. It’s therefore not such a huge shock that he’s allowed just 26 hits and four earned runs over his last 54.2 innings. He’s showing teams something they can’t possibly prepare for without prior experience.
This is not to suggest that Dickey is an overrated bum who’s bound to plummet back down to earth, mind you. Teams have known about his knuckleball for a couple seasons at this point, and he’s been using it effectively for the Mets ever since 2010. We knew before this season even started that he could be successful with his knuckleball.
The difference this year is that Dickey is controlling his knuckler even better than he was before. And as ESPN Stats and Information pointed out on Monday, Dickey is throwing 80-plus mile per hour knucklers at a much more frequent rate.
But as the Braves and Marlins were kind enough to show, Dickey’s knuckler is still a gimmick pitch. Once you’ve seen it, you know how to hit it.
Why Dickey Still Has a Legit Shot at the Record Anyway
You know what the good news is?
The Yankees haven’t seen Dickey before. Ditto the Dodgers. If he stays on his regular rest, Dickey won’t face an opponent he’s already faced until the Mets take on the Philadelphia Phillies at Citi Field in early July.
By then, he could already have broken Hershiser’s record.
Getting past the Yankees will be the hard part. They’re one of the best offensive clubs in baseball, and only the (surprise!) Oakland A’s and Cincinnati Reds have scored more runs in the month of June than the Yankees have, according to FanGraphs. To boot, they’ve hit 25 home runs this month, tied for the most in baseball.
The thing that should frighten Dickey about the Yankees is how patient they are. People focus on the home runs and everything, but one thing the Yankees have always been good at is staying patient and waiting for good pitches to hit.
It’s not just that they take bad pitches. It’s that they spoil good ones. The Yankees foul off more good pitches than just about every team in baseball (the Rangers and Red Sox are really good at it too).
Dickey made it look easy against the Rays and O’s, but make no mistake about it, he’s not going to make it look easy against the Yankees.
However, there’s hope for his scoreless streak simply because the Yankees are yet another team that will be seeing Dickey for the first time this season. That’s proven to be a recipe for success as far as he’s concerned.
After the Yankees come the Dodgers. They’re a scrappy offensive team that has a tendency to find clever ways to put runs on the board, but they’re nowhere near as scary as the Yankees.
If Dickey gets past the Yankees with his scoreless streak intact, I’d say he’ll have the consecutive scoreless innings record pretty well in hand.
And Now for the Big Prediction
So will Dickey get past the Yankees and Dodgers (and possibly the Phillies too) to set a new record for most consecutive innings pitched without allowing an earned run?
I’m not counting on it.
The Yankees roadblock is the kicker for me. Their offense is not as foolproof as it’s been in the past, but it’s clicking right now and their ability to spoil pitches is something that’s going to come very much in handy against Dickey. Unlike the Rays and Orioles, the Yankees are well-stocked with veteran hitters who will know what to do against knuckleballer.
And remember, all it would take to snap Dickey’s scoreless streak is one really hard-hit ball. The Yankees have quite a few guys who can answer that call.
If you want an exact number, I’ll go with 45. Dickey’s scoreless streak will be snapped with one out in the top of the third on Sunday night.
I’ll say this, though: I would like nothing more than to be wrong. I love knuckleballers as much as the next guy, and Dickey is the only one out there right now. I’ll be rooting for him.
Shoot, how can you not root for the guy?
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