One thing we’ve learned throughout these 2015 MLB playoffs—and in virtually any postseason—is that the unlikely is bound to happen. The 2015 World Series promises to be no different.
Back on Opening Day, few could have predicted the Kansas City Royals doubling down on their American League pennant and breaking into the World Series for the second straight year. The same could be said of the New York Mets, who were on the upward trajectory but hardly championship contenders entering the season.
Simply picking these two to battle for the Commissioner’s Trophy at the beginning of the year would have been a bold prediction. So, let’s make some more bold predictions for what may unfold over the coming days.
Bold Predictions
Jacob deGrom Will Struggle Early
Simply put, Jacob deGrom hasn’t looked like a pitcher who’s in his first postseason so far in October. In fact, he’s pitched his way past some of the most seasoned arms in baseball, as his rotation has risen above the likes of Jon Lester and Clayton Kershaw in the opening two rounds.
He’s doing things that we’ve rarely seen in the postseason, as ESPN Stats & Info observed:
But keeping it going into the biggest series of them all is not just difficult, it’s nearly impossible. Plus, a closer look into his recent outings suggests he’s perhaps not as dominant as seen by the naked eye.
The 27-year-old has picked up three wins in three starts, but there’s reason to believe he may be struggling with his command and fatigue, as ESPN.com’s Adam Rubin reported:
Although deGrom is 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA in the postseason, he had to labor through his past two outings. His pitch counts quickly rose and he had erratic fastball command. Collins believes deGrom may be suffering from fatigue and could use extra time between starts, even if it is only one additional day beyond Game 1.
What’s more, his three playoff wins have come against lineups that were struggling mightily to get the ball in play. The same can’t be suggested of the Kansas City Royals, who are masters at getting ahead in the pitch count and making the opposing arms work tirelessly to get outs.
Matt Harvey gets the start in Game 1, which means come Wednesday’s Game 2, it will have been well over a week since deGrom has stepped on the mound. Getting out of your rotation can be tough for top-end pitchers, and deGrom will find that out early on as he loses his first World Series decision.
Daniel Murphy Won’t Homer in Games 1 and 2
I know, I know. Crazy, right?
This is easily the boldest prediction of them all, simply based on what the once-under-the-radar utility man has done throughout this October. His six straight postseason games with a home run broke a major league record, which is pretty astounding considering his career up to this point.
CBS Sports quipped that he hasn’t homered in several days, only because the Mets haven’t been playing:
Murphy is hitting the ball as well as anyone ever has in the postseason, knocking in easy singles when the long ball isn’t there and carrying the Mets offense. Don’t think the Royals aren’t keying in on that, and will be prepared to do everything they can to keep Murphy from getting pitches to hit.
It honestly wouldn’t be surprising to see Kansas City intentionally walk Murphy every time it gets the chance, and that will leave him with many less opportunities to go yard in Kauffman Stadium.
An Elite Closer Will Blow a Save
Many of the best relievers and closers of all time have pitched in the World Series, but it’s hard to go back in history and find two in the same championship series that are dealing like this.
Jeurys Familia has been virtually unhittable for the Mets, but Wade Davis has been just as dominant on the mound late in games for the Royals. Neither pitcher has given up much of anything to opposing lineups in this postseason, as Phil Rogers of MLB.com noted:
Both have shown the ability to rise to the occasion in pressure moments throughout this postseason, and Davis showed the same this time last year. But all good things must come to an end, and this is one of them.
There aren’t any stats that suggest either pitcher is due for a blown save—they’ve both been that fantastic. But with stout starting pitching on both sides, we’re bound to be in for a number of tight contests down the stretch.
All it will take is conceding one run to blow a save for either of these closers, and I’m betting on that to happen.
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