Playoff baseball often comes down to pitching, which means both teams in the World Series will hope for a big performance from their starters in Game 1.
The Kansas City Royals waited until the last minute to announce Tuesday’s starter, but it will be veteran Edinson Volquez. He will battle Matt Harvey of the New York Mets in the important first game of the best-of-seven series. There are a lot of factors at play, but the performances of these two men could make a huge difference in the first contest of the series.
With that in mind, here is a look at what to expect from each pitcher in Game 1.
Edinson Volquez, Royals
While he did have one shutdown performance against the Toronto Blue Jays in the American League Championship Series, Volquez has not been great in his postseason career. In five starts, he has a 1-4 record with a 6.56 ERA, including 17 walks in 23.1 innings.
He explained to reporters that the key is to stay mentally composed, via Thomas Harding of MLB.com:
It’s another game. I don’t have to do anything different than what I’ve been doing. I’ve got to stay focused in what I’m doing, especially this game, because this is a World Series game. You don’t have too many chances to make a lot of mistakes in those games. So I’ve got to stay under control and pitch my game.
One thing he does have going for him is the extended layoff the Mets have had since last playing. Thanks to their four-game sweep of the Chicago Cubs, they will go six days between games. This is a major gap for players who haven’t gone this long without seeing live pitching since March.
Volquez does have obvious talent, and while New York should be able to get some runs on the board, it won’t have the consistent hitting it has shown throughout the playoffs to this point. As long as the walks don’t get out of control, the Royals starter should at least be able to keep his team in the game.
With a dominant bullpen behind him, just going five or six innings should be more than enough for the 32-year-old starter.
Prediction: 5 innings, 3 runs, 3 walks, 5 strikeouts
Matt Harvey, Mets
Most of the discussion surrounding Harvey this season has been what has happened off the field. Agent Scott Boras wanted to shut him down due to an innings limit. He missed a postseason workout while stuck in traffic.
There weren’t many complaints about his actual pitching, however. Harvey finished the year ranked sixth in the National League with a 2.71 ERA and seventh with a 1.02 WHIP. Although he was sometimes overshadowed by teammate Jacob deGrom, the 26-year-old pitcher has outstanding stuff and can shut down any lineup.
With a fastball that can reach the upper 90s and breaking balls he can locate for strikes, Harvey was able to keep the Cubs lineup in check for 7.2 innings, allowing just two runs in his most recent start.
The problem is the Royals have a much more experienced lineup than the Cubs with a better approach at the plate. As Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports notes, they know how to handle hard pitching:
Kansas City might not have one terrifying hitter in the middle of the order, but it has a deep lineup full of hitters who can all get the ball in play. Even if Harvey is at his best, this is a batting order that could scratch a few runs across with multiple singles in a row and eventually get to the talented pitcher.
Look for him to have a great start to the day before giving up a few runs at the end of his outing.
Prediction: 6.2 innings, 3 runs, 2 walks, 7 strikeouts
Game Prediction
Harvey has the clear edge in this matchup when it comes to pure ability. However, there are multiple other factors at play, most notably the Royals bullpen and the offense’s knack for scoring late.
Mets manager Terry Collins knows the opposing bullpen combination of Kelvin Herrera, Ryan Madson and Wade Davis could be tough to beat late in games:
The problem is even if this plan works out, a close lead also isn’t safe. This is more of an issue with the Mets lacking faith in setup men Tyler Clippard and Addison Reed. If Harvey can’t go seven or eight innings, the bridge to closer Jeurys Familia will feature plenty of drama.
New York has the hitters to get an early lead, but the Royals will eventually get to Harvey and tie up the game. In a battle of bullpens, the edge will go to Kansas City, and the home team will pull out a Game 1 win.
Prediction: Royals 4, Mets 3
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