Even though the New York Mets are returning home for the World Series in a 2-0 hole against the Kansas City Royals, they have lost just one playoff game at Citi Field in 2015.
Odds are not in New York’s favor to win the World Series, as no team has won the Fall Classic after dropping the first two games since the 1996 New York Yankees.
It also doesn’t help the Mets’ cause that Kansas City still has two games left, if necessary, and the Royals haven’t lost at home in the postseason since the Houston Astros won Game 1 of the American League Division Series.
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Looking at how the series stands, it’s no surprise the list of potential MVP candidates is filled with Royals. The big surprise is that Johnny Cueto is leading the pack, because if Kansas City wins before Game 6, he would only get one start.
Granted, Cueto‘s one start was masterful and unlike any other start in the World Series in 20 years, per ESPN Stats & Info:
ESPN’s Buster Olney, citing Elias Sports Bureau, did note Cueto is the first pitcher since Roger Clemens in 2000 to have two starts of at least eight innings pitched and two hits or fewer allowed. MVP voters could decide to give the Kansas City right-hander MVP with just one start as a way of honoring his resurgence this October.
The Mets will have a chance to get back in the series with rookie Noah Syndergaard opposing Chris Young in Game 3.
If you believe in history being an indicator of the future, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo has a piece of information that works in New York’s favor:
A more substantial reason to be optimistic about the Mets’ chances is the National League venue, which Phil Rogers of MLB.com notes hasn’t been kind to American League opponents in recent World Series.
“In the past nine World Series,” Rogers wrote, “American League teams have gone 8-17 in NL parks. The 2006 Tigers, ’08 Rays, ’10 Rangers and ’12 Tigers failed to win a game on NL soil.”
The Royals won’t have the same lineup depth because designated hitter Kendrys Morales, who led the team in slugging percentage (.485) and tied for the team lead in homers (22), will be relegated to pinch-hit duty.
There’s also the matter of Kansas City’s lineup being able to make contact, as Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom have combined for four strikeouts in 11 innings this World Series.
That high contact rate has seemed to change the game plan for Mets starters coming into the game, as Matthew Cerrone of MetsBlog.com wrote after Game 2.
“In Games 1 and 2, Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom each averaged roughly 96 MPH with their fastball,” Cerrone wrote. “Yet, Harvey threw it just 37 percent of the time, while deGrom threw his 39 percent of the time, down from his regular-season norm of 60 percent.”
Syndergaard also relies on his fastball, throwing it just under 62 percent of the time during the regular season and averaging 97.1 mph with the pitch.
Royals hitters have no doubt picked up on the fact that Harvey and deGrom were afraid to consistently challenge them with their fastball, so they could look for a breaking ball. Syndergaard should look to establish his heater early before turning to the curveball and changeup the second time through the order.
Per Daren Willman of MLBFarm.com, the Royals have had virtually no success against fastballs at least 95 mph in the World Series:
Another key for the Mets is getting the offense going. It’s hardly a surprise that Daniel Murphy has stopped hitting home runs like Barry Bonds in 2001, but the bad news is no one else around him is stepping up his game.
Cueto‘s splendid effort in Game 2 can be chalked up to a great player pitching a great game, as tends to happen in October, but the Mets had 15 hitters reach in Game 1 via hits, walks and errors with just four runs to show for it.
A big reason for that is because the Mets only had one extra-base hit—a home run by Curtis Granderson—in the game. By contrast, the Royals had the same number of hits as the Mets in the first game (11), but four went for extra bases.
Yoenis Cespedes, who did need a cortisone shot in his shoulder before the World Series, looks like an injured player with one hit in his last 12 at-bats. David Wright has just two extra-base hits this postseason and no homers.
The Mets could get away with those performances when their pitching staff was shutting down a bad Los Angeles Dodgers lineup and overmatched Chicago Cubs lineup, but the Royals make too much contact for the starters to throw seven or eight innings each night.
Since the Mets are returning home and have been so good at Citi Field, look for them to get back on track in Game 3, but the Royals will steal one game on the road and return home with a chance to close things out at Kauffman Stadium.
Stats via FanGraphs.com
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