After holding serve on their home field, the Kansas City Royals will have a chance to win their first World Series in 30 years by winning two of the three games against the New York Mets at Citi Field starting on Friday.
Things could not have worked out better for the Royals thus far. After the bullpen fired eight innings of one-run ball in Game 1 with 12 strikeouts, Johnny Cueto gave them a rest with a complete game two-hitter in Game 2.
Everything that could have gone wrong for the Mets did. Jeurys Familia, who hadn’t given up a run since Sept. 23, allowed a game-tying home run to Alex Gordon in the ninth inning of Game 1. Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom combined to have more walks (five) than strikeouts (four), and the offense has scored just one run in the last 15 innings.
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Series Prediction
At this point, there’s no reason to think Kansas City won’t win the World Series. The Royals will be able to return home at worst trailing 3-2 for a potential Game 6, and they haven’t lost at home since Game 1 of the American League Division Series.
Trying to find reasons for optimism in New York really doesn’t require much work. The Mets’ only loss at Citi Field this postseason was in a game started by Clayton Kershaw, and the Royals don’t have any starting pitcher of his caliber. (For the record, no one in MLB does.)
However, there seems to be a bigger problem for the Mets that’s not generating a lot of discussion: Yoenis Cespedes.
The slugger who was credited with turning the team’s season around after being acquired from the Detroit Tigers is dealing with a shoulder injury suffered in Game 4 of the NLCS against the Chicago Cubs.
Speaking to ESPN’s Marly Rivera (via ESPN.com’s Adam Rubin), Cespedes said his shoulder wasn’t going to be 100 percent before Game 1 of the World Series.
“The cortisone shot relieved the pain and inflammation,” Cespedes said. “But even if I’m not 100 percent, I am certain I will play on Tuesday. The doctor told me my AC joint is a bit swollen, and that’s why it hurt. It happens to many athletes, but it is not a serious injury, and will heal quickly.”
Cespedes can say what he wants, but his postseason OPS of .631 is just 27 points better than his .604 slugging percentage in 57 regular-season games with the Mets. His injury is limiting what he can do offensively.
Making matters worse are David Wright and Daniel Murphy, the two hitters ahead of Cespedes in the lineup, who are a combined 4-for-20 with six strikeouts, two walks and no extra-base hits.
With the Mets’ offense struggling, their pitching staff has had to pick up a lot of slack. Normally that would be a good problem to have, but Kansas City’s ability to make contact has finally gotten the recognition it deserves.
In fact, per Alec Dopp of GammonsDaily.com, the heat that Harvey and deGrom are bringing wasn’t fooling anyone in the Royals lineup:
Facing Kansas City’s lineup doesn’t sound as intimidating as a Cubs lineup that features sluggers like Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Schwarber, but the Royals are more frustrating because no matter what, they always put the ball in play.
This is an era of baseball in which strikeout rates for pitching staffs have increased every year since 2005, yet Kansas City’s lineup has decreased its strikeout total from 1,048 in 2013 to 973 in 2015.
The lost art of making contact is going to help Kansas City win a championship. The Mets will not go quietly because they are a really good team and earned their spot in the World Series, but the Royals are operating on a different level than anyone else right now.
Prediction: Royals win series in five games
Stats via Baseball-Reference.com and ESPN.com
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