The Kansas City Royals finished off the Toronto Blue Jays Friday night in Game 6 of the American League Championship Series to set up a date in the World Series with the National League champion New York Mets.
It’s the first meeting in the World Series between the two teams, but the Royals are in the Fall Classic for the second straight season, while the Mets are back for the first time since 2000.
After losing Game 5 of the ALCS Wednesday in Toronto, the Royals held off the Blue Jays 4-3 in front of a wild home crowd in Game 6. Meanwhile, the Mets dispatched the Chicago Cubs in the National League Championship Series in four games with strong pitching and a historic effort at the plate that saw them break their team record for home runs in a postseason.
Below is a schedule of all seven games, as well as some analysis and predictions for the series.
Will Daniel Murphy Continue His Hot Hitting?
In short, no. However, that is only because it’s hard for any player to continue to hit .529 (as he did in the NLCS) and blast a home run every game. That’s not to say the Mets second baseman won’t have a good series, but if he continues at his current pace, he’ll be talked about alongside the all-time great postseason players.
His homers in each of his past six games are already a record, and even if he only produced at 50 percent of his production in the NLCS, he would hit .264 with two home runs and three RBI in the World Series—not too shabby.
Considering Kauffman Stadium is one of the harder places to hit a home run and the Royals held the majors’ best home run-hitting team in check during the ALCS, expect a drop-off for Murphy.
Is the Royals Defense Really This Good?
The Royals have made one error in the postseason. In 375 chances over 11 games, Kansas City has a .997 fielding percentage. The Royals were 11th in baseball with a .985 fielding percentage in the regular season, but in the playoffs they are 0.12 percentage points ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers, who led the majors this season.
Like Murphy, that number is not likely to hold up in another full series. The Mets were one spot ahead of Kansas City with a .986 fielding percentage, but they also faced a pitcher at the plate two to three times each game. The Mets (39.7) were also one spot higher than the Royals (38.7) in team defensive WAR, per FanGraphs.
In other words, the Mets were an ever-so-slightly better defensive team during the regular season, but the Royals have been better in the playoffs, although not by much. If Kansas City continues its stellar defensive play, it would be a huge advantage, one it did not have against the Mets in the regular season. However, count on the Royals to make at least two errors in the World Series and play at a similar level on defense as the Mets.
Who Will Win?
This should be a matchup that heads back to Kansas City for a sixth or seventh game. The Royals have the better bullpen, but the Mets’ overall pitching has been the best this postseason.
Terry Collins said he is turning to Matt Harvey in Game 1, per Mike Vorkunov of NJ.com. Harvey was 13-8 with a 2.71 ERA this season and said he is ready to go, according to the team’s official Twitter account:
Per Vorkunov, Harvey didn’t mince words when Collins asked him if he was ready.
“Damn right,” Harvey said.
Collins explained his decision a little further, after Harvey did not have to pitch Game 5 of the NLCS.
“I don’t want to give him five more extra days if I could help it,” the manager said.
The Royals will counter with an offense that outscored MLB‘s top-scoring regular-season offense, 38-26, in the ALCS. Every regular for the Royals hit a home run in the series except leadoff man Alcides Escobar, and all he did was win the ALCS MVP Award.
The Royals can shut down any team with their deadly bullpen, but if they are hitting like that, they will be tough to beat. The Mets, who had a team ERA good for fourth in the NL during the regular season, will throw a group of young starters in Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz at the Royals, but expect Kansas City to be ready.
Given that the Royals are hitting, pitching and fielding well and carry the experience of a World Series appearance last season in their back pocket, look for a close series win, their second in franchise history.
Prediction: Royals win in seven.
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