The Texas Rangers could have chosen to wave a white flag when they found out Yu Darvish had been lost for the 2015 season due to Tommy John surgery, but they’re not.
Instead, they may have it in mind to acquire a suitable replacement: Cole Hamels.
According to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, the Rangers are in contact with the Philadelphia Phillies over the 31-year-old left-hander, who is very much attainable. He may be coming off a career-best 2.46 ERA in 2014, but the Phillies have made no secret of the fact that they’re rebuilding. And with Cliff Lee down for the count, Hamels is really their only valuable trade asset.
Mind you, this doesn’t mean that a trade is going to happen.
“The teams have discussed Rangers prospects who’d go in a package for Hamels, but the sides were said to be still far apart,” Heyman wrote. “At this point, the parties weren’t necessarily expressing great optimism the gap could be closed, but they aren’t closing the door, either.”
One complication is that Darvish’s injury means the Rangers don’t exactly have a leverage advantage. And given what ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark has had to say about Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr., his asking price could very well be too high. From the sound of things, he’s been Mr. Thick Thickity-Thickface from Thicktown, Thickania in Hamels trade talks.
Still. While a deal may not be likely, it’s certainly possible. The Rangers most definitely have a need for Hamels, and Heyman spoke to a rival GM last week who said they have the prospects and the money to acquire him and afford some portion of the $100 million remaining on his contract.
Question is: Even if the Rangers do pull off a trade for Hamels, could he make up for the loss of Darvish and get them to where they want to be in 2015?
First of all, yes, the Rangers did have a shot at the postseason before Darvish went down.
If you go back to when he was healthy, the Rangers were projected to be just good enough. Per OneStrikeAway.com, Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections had them pegged for an 83-win record that would put them within striking distance in the AL West and in the mix for a wild-card spot. In an age where two wild-card teams just played in the World Series, that’s good enough.
And that sounded fair enough. With healthy versions of Derek Holland, Prince Fielder, Mitch Moreland and Neftali Feliz, a new rotation addition in Yovani Gallardo and a potential breakout star in Rougned Odor, the Rangers did look significantly improved over last year’s injury-wrecked 95-loss debacle.
But then Darvish went down.
His injury cost the Rangers a pitcher with 3.27 ERA and 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings since 2012. That knocked the Rangers’ PECOTA projection from 83 wins to 79 wins, making them a relative long shot to contend in 2015.
We can discuss and debate the numbers all day, but there’s no debating the sentiment. The Rangers just don’t look like they have enough without Darvish. As such, it follows that they won’t look like they have enough until they find somebody capable of being at least as good as Darvish.
So let’s talk about whether Hamels can be that guy.
On the surface, it looks like a yes. Thanks to superior efficiency and superior durability, Hamels has logged nearly 100 more innings than Darvish since 2012. And if you go by ERA+, which adjusts ERAs for parks and leagues, you find that Darvish and Hamels have been pretty much the same pitcher in that time frame. Darvish has a 127 ERA+ to Hamels’ 126 ERA+.
That alone makes it look like swapping one out for the other would be a fair trade, and you can come to the same conclusion by comparing styles.
Though Hamels hasn’t been nearly Darvish’s equal when it comes to striking batters out, he’s been about as good at limiting home runs and better at limiting walks and getting ground balls. Via FanGraphs, here’s a quick look:
One figures that Rangers general manager Jon Daniels is aware of all this and that he’s therefore privately contradicting what he said last week on KTCK-AM 1310 (h/t the Dallas Morning News) about replacing Darvish not being a “realistic” idea. Hamels may not be a carbon copy of Darvish, but the two are peers in terms of talent.
This is not to say there isn’t a legit concern about the idea of replacing Darvish with Hamels, though.
The Rangers learned the hard way with their recent trades for Ryan Dempster and Matt Garza that National League excellence can have a hard time translating into American League excellence. And Hamels would be a stronger candidate than most to fall prey to that same misfortune.
According to Baseball Prospectus, one reason Hamels had such an awesome year in 2014 is because he faced easier competition than all but three other pitchers. Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs took a different route in looking beyond just 2014, but came up with the same conclusion, writing that Hamels has basically faced “a bunch of Everth Cabreras” on average since 2012.
The good news? There are positives for the Rangers to hang their hat on to overrule the negative that is Hamels’ recent competition.
Certainly, it’s hard not to be enthused about how Hamels’ velocity is somehow trending upward as he heads into his 30s. Further, Brooks Baseball can show that his pitch repertoire is getting more varied every year. Take those two things and combine them with Hamels’ strong control, and he’s probably never been a more complete pitcher than he is right now.
Darvish and Hamels are two very different pitchers. Of that, there is no doubt. But there’s enough that says Hamels belongs in the same league as Darvish and that he would thus prove to be capable of replacing his lost production on the 2015 Rangers.
But before we go, let’s acknowledge that this doesn’t mean trading for him is a no-brainer.
Because Darvish’s injury creates a lack of leverage for the Rangers, they’re definitely not going to get Hamels cheap. In all likelihood, they’d be taking on another big contract for an aging star while waving goodbye to a couple of talented prospects.
There’s also Hamels’ long-term health to consider. Though he should be fine for 2015, his career workload of nearly 1,900 innings, his recent velocity increase and his recent arm trouble paint a picture of an ace who may soon run out of bullets.
Lastly, there’s the reality of the Rangers’ current situation. Even if Hamels were to effectively replace Darvish, both the projections and any reasonable pair of eyes can see that this would only succeed in getting the Rangers back in the 2015 chase rather than to the front of it. The Rangers could very well aim high with a Hamels trade and ultimately end up missing short.
So this situation doesn’t really come down to how much sense Daniels can make. It more so comes down to how bold he wants to be.
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.
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