After looking up at the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants in the NL West in 2014, the San Diego Padres are giving off strong signals that they mean to level the playing field this winter.
Question is: Is Matt Kemp the right man for the job?
It sounds like the Padres would like him to be. There’s been a steady stream of rumors linking them to Kemp, and the latest from Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports is that the two sides are still talking:
Mind you, Rosenthal went on to add that the Dodgers are discussing the 30-year-old outfielder with other teams as well. The Padres do not have their undivided attention, nor are they the front-runners.
Either way, the notion that the Dodgers would be willing to trade Kemp within the division might sound…well, off. After all, superstar players are rarely traded to division rivals.
But this is a rare case where you can see where the Dodgers are coming from. Yasmani Grandal would be a needed upgrade at catcher, and moving Kemp would clear a hefty chunk of payroll space even if L.A. was to eat some of the $107 million he’s owed over the next five years.
Also, it’s safe to guess that the two-time defending NL West champs don’t view the Padres, who won just 77 games in 2014, as a threat even if they do add Kemp. New San Diego general manager A.J. Preller, however, would seem to be more optimistic.
Here’s ESPN’s Buster Olney with the team’s perspective on this offseason:
Goodness knows the Padres do need offense. While their pitching was steady enough to finish fifth in the majors in ERA last year, their offense ranked dead last with 535 runs and a .634 OPS. After a season with that offense, yeah, suffice it to say that Kemp has a sort of “knight in shining armor” look about him.
Kemp’s a lifetime .292 hitter who’s coming off a season that saw him hit .287 with an .852 OPS and 25 home runs. He was especially lethal after the All-Star break, OPS’ing .971 with 17 dingers.
That was a vintage Kemp performance that Dodgers assistant hitting coach John Valentin credited to a mechanical adjustment that cleared up some major vulnerabilities.
“He actually has straightened his stance,” Valentin told Pedro Moura of the Orange County Register. “It used to be locked. What that created was a difficulty to have the freedom to stay through the baseball. This offers a clear path to hit balls in and away.”
Looking ahead, the Steamer projections at FanGraphs have Kemp pegged for an .808 OPS and 22 homers in 2015. After the season he just had, I’ll wager those figures are a little conservative. He should have another .850-ish OPS and 25 homers in him. Maybe at the least.
So let there be no doubt about it. If the question is whether Kemp has a bat that can help the Padres offense, the answer is yes. However, that’s not the question we’re asking here. We’re asking whether Kemp’s the man for the job of making San Diego a contender.
And that’s frankly where it’s harder to be optimistic.
One issue has to do with the degree to which Kemp would be upgrading the Padres offense. It would be one thing if he had the look of a missing puzzle piece, but he doesn’t.
San Diego’s offense wasn’t just the worst in the majors last year; it was the worst in the majors by a lot, as the team scored 38 fewer runs and OPS’d 37 points lower than anyone else. You’d have to be Ted Williams to qualify as a missing puzzle piece for this offense, and the Splendid Splinter Kemp is not.
Another issue has to do with how, as good as Kemp’s bat is, the rest of the total package now leaves much to be desired. He’s not the strong all-around player he once was, which is reflected in how he only managed a 1.8 WAR in 2014 (by FanGraphs‘ reckoning) even despite his strong offensive numbers.
For those who prefer such things, here’s a more practical take on Kemp these days from FanGraphs‘ Mike Petriello:
It’s important to remember Kemp probably is never going to be the superstar the Dodgers envisioned when he signed his mega deal. The player who signed that contract was an iron man with exceptional speed, enough to steal 40 bases and at least fake it in center. The player he now is will always have to deal with questions about his durability, and he’s limited to trying to simply be competent in a corner outfield spot…
In so many words: While Kemp’s bat would undeniably be a welcome addition to the Padres lineup, overall he wouldn’t upgrade the team that much. As such, just Kemp wouldn’t be good enough. For the Padres to contend in 2015, they’ll need to acquire him and additional upgrades.
That, unfortunately, would be tricky.
San Diego would presumably only have so much money to spend after taking on a chunk of Kemp’s remaining contract, and the selection of bats on the open market would be slim to boot. Thanks to the early run on hitters, there are only a couple of quality bats left on the market.
The Padres would have better luck on the trade market, but likely not without chipping away at the one strength they do have: pitching.
They could get a solid bat for Andrew Cashner or Ian Kennedy, but they’d have to trade Tyson Ross to get a true impact bat. Since he’s a legit top-of-the-rotation starter, they’d be taking a step forward and a step back at the same time.
A subsequent free-agent signing could fix that, but the Padres would be priced out of the Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields markets. There are options outside of those three, but there’s no Ross.
All told, let’s put it like this: Trading for Kemp could bump the Padres up from a 77-win team to an 80- or 81-win club, but not all the way to a 90-win team. They’d need more assets to go the rest of the way, and they wouldn’t be in an ideal position to add the kinds of players they’d need.
From here, we can also get into how the Padres’ trading for Kemp might actually help the enemy.
If Grandal were to be involved in the trade, the Dodgers wouldn’t be getting a mere throw-in. He was one of the only above-average hitters the Padres had in 2014, and Baseball Prospectus rated him as a top-15 strike framer. Also, the Dodgers would have some freed-up funds to pursue other upgrades.
Lastly, we can get into how Kemp’s not a long-term star at this stage of his career. There’s a decent chance his age-30 season in 2015 could be his last great campaign. If the Padres were to waste it, they could quickly find themselves regretting the thought process that led them to Kemp in the first place.
The Padres’ interest in Kemp is understandable. They’re a team in need of an impact player, and that need goes beyond a mere desire to win ballgames. Maybe more so than any other fanbase, San Diego fans need something to rally around.
But there’s the flashy way to try to become a contender, and there’s the smart way. Trading for Kemp would be the former at a time when the Padres should be attempting the latter.
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference unless otherwise noted/linked.
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