After his Colorado Rockies were swept last week at Citi Field, Nolan Arenado explained it away by raving about the New York Mets‘ pitching.
“The Mets have four No. 1’s. We saw all four of them,” Arenado said.
No one ever says that about the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Dodgers may well have the best two starting pitchers in baseball in Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. And they may well have the most underwhelming back end of a rotation of any playoff contender.
It’s no coincidence that since the start of July, the Dodgers have gone 12-3 when Kershaw or Greinke starts a game—and 11-16 when anyone else starts.
“It’s still hard to believe that they didn’t go out and get another big starter,” one rival scout said Monday.
But they didn’t. They’ll go into the playoffs in seven weeks with Kershaw, Greinke and whoever is left, and they’ll make the best of it. And if the standings stay as they are today, they’ll open the Division Series against a Mets team that can counter with Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Jonathon Niese.
Arenado was being a little generous when he called them “four No. 1’s,” since Syndergaard is still developing and Niese isn’t in that class. But Syndergaard without a doubt has No. 1 stuff, and before long the Mets could have Steven Matz in Niese’s place.
Regardless, scouts would overwhelmingly agree that the Mets’ rotation is deeper. So which group would they take in a playoff series?
“We were just talking about that the other day [at Citi Field],” one NL scout said. “If you had one four-game series, and you had to win three games, you’d take the Mets. But in the playoffs, you’d have to give the advantage to the Dodgers, because of their experience, their track record, and the fact that they’re both true No. 1’s.”
A few necessary reminders here: The Dodgers have had Kershaw and Greinke together for two Octobers already, and they didn’t win either time (losing to the St. Louis Cardinals in the NLCS in 2013 and to the Cardinals in the Division Series in 2014). They’re 2-2 in Greinke’s four postseason starts for them, and 0-4 when Kershaw starts against the Cardinals in October.
And for all the concern about rotation depth, the team that won the World Series in 2014 did it with just one dependable starting pitcher. Take out Madison Bumgarner, and the Giants rotation last October was 1-3 with a 5.59 ERA in 11 postseason starts.
It worked, because Bumgarner was historically good and because Bruce Bochy always finds a way to win in October. But even Bochy wouldn’t want to try it again with just one starter he could count on.
What about with two?
“I’d take two great ones,” said Jim Leyland, who managed in the postseason eight times with the Pittsburgh Pirates, Florida Marlins and Detroit Tigers. “I’d like two guys you think for sure will shut them down.”
Even without asking anyone to pitch on short rest, a team like the Dodgers could use their top two starters three times in a best-of-five Division Series, and four times in a possible seven games in the LCS and World Series. Win all of those starts and you’ve got yourselves a championship.
If you’re willing to push a starter on short rest, as the Dodgers did with Kershaw each of the past two seasons, you can minimize the back of the rotation even more.
With one pitcher on short rest, your big two could start four of the five games in the first round, or five of the seven in the LCS or World Series.
It’s hard to imagine the Mets pushing any of their aces that hard, especially in a year when Harvey and Syndergaard are both subject to innings limits that could lead to extra days off or skipped starts down the stretch (general manager Sandy Alderson has said that the innings limits won’t keep them out of the postseason).
With their depth, though, the Mets would have less need to start anyone on short rest.
The Mets have other postseason questions, starting with the biggest one of all: Can they hold off the favored Washington Nationals to win the NL East? Bullpen depth has also become a significant issue, showing up over the weekend when the Pirates swept three games at Citi Field.
The Dodgers have other questions, too. Like the Mets, they tried to strengthen the middle of their bullpen at the July 31 deadline; like the Mets, they may not have done enough. The Dodgers still face a strong challenge from the Giants in the NL West, and if they need Kershaw or Greinke to pitch a wild-card game, the rotation depth would become a bigger problem.
There’s time for that to play out, and there’s time to discuss it. The question on the table today is a much simpler one: If you had your pick for October, do you take Greinke and Kershaw, or do you prefer the Mets’ deeper rotation?
I’m taking Greinke and Kershaw.
Danny Knobler covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.
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