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The Houston Astros and New York Yankees will kick off the 2015 MLB postseason with the American League Wild Card Game Tuesday night at Yankee Stadium. 

In a one-game, do-or-die contest, the little details are magnified. Let’s identify a handful of keys for each team in its pursuit of victory. After the dust settles, any of these storylines are likely to be determining factors in which team advances on to the ALDS. 

Keuchel‘s Road Woes

Dallas Keuchel may very well win the AL Cy Young after the season, but he hasn’t been nearly as dominant on the road as he has at Minute Maid Park:

As shown above, Keuchel‘s ERA is over two full runs higher as a visitor. There are also significant drop-offs in strikeout and ground-ball rate, while hitters are generating hard contact more frequently. 

Considering how Minute Maid Park usually behooves hitters, Keuchel‘s dominance at home is tough to comprehend. 

“It’s honestly something I never really expected because this is a so-called hitter’s park, with the dimensions and everything,” Keuchel told ESPN.com. “It feels like I am at home home here this year. I have steadily improved over the years.”

The Yankees aren’t a noticeably different offensive team at Yankee Stadium—New York has an OPS of .759 at home, .729 on the road—but how Keuchel looks in the first few innings will be something to keep an eye on.

Oliver Perez vs. Yankees Lefties 

Houston’s return to the postseason in 2015 is due to many factors, but none have been as instrumental as an improved bullpen.

After ranking dead last with a 4.80 ERA last season, the Astros finished sixth with a 3.27 ERA. Luke Gregerson, Pat Neshek, Chad Qualls and Will Harris give the Astros plenty of right-handed options, but Houston relies heavily on veteran Oliver Perez to handle left-handed hitters.

Against the left-handed-heavy Yankees, Perez will be crucial if the game is close in the later innings. Don’t let his 4.17 ERA fool you — Perez still dominates lefties: 

• Against lefties in 2015: .194/.242/.290, 33.3 K percentage, 16.7 hard contact percentage
• Against righties in 2015: .296/.410/.457, 21.4 K percentage, 30.2 hard contact percentage 

Perez could be used against Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner at the top of the lineup or to turn around Carlos Beltran before facing Brian McCann and Greg Bird. With Keuchel on the mound and Perez looming as a late-inning threat, expect Girardi to stagger his lineup more than he would for a regular-season game.

Can the Yankees Shut Down Houston’s Running Game?

The Astros ranked second in MLB in homers this season and finished third in stolen bases. Houston’s success is often contingent on the long ball, but if runners can reach base, manager A.J. Hinch won’t hesitate to put them in motion. 

Brian McCann has had troubles in the past throwing out baserunners, but he’s been much better as a Yankee. His two highest caught-stealing percentages have come in the Bronx, including a 36 percent rate this season. 

Adding to that encouraging stat is Masahiro Tanaka’s ability to hold runners to modest leads. The right-hander allowed just one stolen base all season and ranked third in MLB in pickoff percentage. 

Game 163 isn’t the time to alter your identity if you’re Houston, but the Yankees have the right battery in place to slow down a potent running game. 

Experience Over Youth?

Maybe it matters, maybe it doesn’t, but the Yankees will have a substantial advantage in terms of postseason experience. 

Take each team’s starting lineup from the final game of the season (Note: we added Evan Gattis, as he’s likely to DH but didn’t in Houston’s final game due to National League rules):

Even for the biggest sabermetric advocates that scoff at things like team chemistry and clutch hitting, a 209-25 discrepancy in postseason games has to be an advantage for the Yankees. Four probable starters have more experience in October by themselves than the entire Astros starting lineup.

October baseball in Yankee Stadium isn’t just another game. The Yankees will be able to draw from theirs, while the Astros will hope their youthful exuberance blinds them from the magnitude of the moment.  

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