Coming off a huge breakout in 2015, Yoenis Cespedes has a rare sort of distinction on the free-agent market. He’s arguably the most talented player still available, but he is also arguably the biggest question mark still available.
And yet, there is hope where the latter is concerned: Maybe Cespedes won’t be so much of a question mark if he lands in the right place.
For now, the possibility of Cespedes landing somewhere is becoming a bit more concrete. There hasn’t been a ton of noise coming from his direction of the rumor mill this winter, but Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com reported shortly before the new year that the 30-year-old outfielder’s market is heating up:
That’s five potential suitors, which puts Cespedes in a not-so-bad position.
But that’s not quite the same as the ideal position.
Back in September of 2015, Cespedes had a clear idea of what he wanted in free agency.
“I’m not thinking about a contract,” Cespedes said, via Adam Rubin of ESPN New York, “but I do know that I will be looking for a contract that is six years or more, has to be six years or more. We’ll see what happens.”
Because Cespedes was in the middle of not just a career year but also a team-carrying performance that pushed the New York Mets to the World Series, his desire for a six-year deal seemed reasonable at the time. That remained the case into November, when Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors predicted Cespedes would land a six-year, $140 million contract in free agency.
But things look a little different now. Cespedes‘ leverage hasn’t been helped by his lengthy stay on the open market, and even his top suitors aren’t perfect candidates to match his price tag.
According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Chicago White Sox are only interested in a three-year deal for Cespedes. Per Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports, the Baltimore Orioles “certainly aren’t” going to touch the $140 million figure predicted by Dierkes. The Los Angeles Angels and San Francisco Giants, meanwhile, aren’t exactly swimming in spare spending cash.
Frankly, teams do have reasons to shy away from matching Cespedes‘ price tag. There is, however, at least one reason for optimism that can be latched onto.
Let’s go back to that point about Cespedes being the most talented player on the free-agent market. It’s a hard one to argue, as he has a better throwing arm, more speed and as much power as the next player on the market. Heck, his speed/power combo alone is enough to make scouts drool.
“That’s Mickey Mantle, Bo Jackson territory,” one scout said of Cespedes‘ speed/power combo in October, via Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.
Even better, it’s surprisingly easy to have faith in Cespedes‘ talents aging well. He may be on the wrong side of 30, but he only has four full major league seasons under his belt. Before those, he spent eight years playing in the Cuban National Series, which has a season a little over half the length of MLB’s.
As enticing as all this is, though, what must frighten teams is the trouble Cespedes has had consistently putting his talents to use on the field.
Cespedes broke through as a Rookie of the Year contender in 2012, posting an .861 OPS with 23 home runs and 16 stolen bases. But then came two straight years of mediocrity. Cespedes earned just a .744 OPS across 2013 and 2014, posting a mere .298 OBP in the process. He still rated as a solid overall outfielder, but the promise of superstardom he made in 2012 effectively evaporated.
On the surface, it looks like it came back in 2015. Cespedes posted a career-best .870 OPS with a career-high 35 home runs. And when you added up all his contributions, you got a top-10 outfielder whether you consulted Baseball-Reference.com WAR or FanGraphs WAR.
In times like these, it’s tempting to use the phrase “finally put it all together.” Thing is, though, that’s not entirely true.
Cespedes didn’t get more advanced at the plate in 2015, as his walk rate continued to tumble and his strikeout rate continued to mingle right around league average. He still rated as a solid baserunner, but without lifting his stolen base total back into double digits. He also continued to rate as an excellent defender, but with much of his value once again tied up in his arm.
Clearly, Cespedes‘ big breakout in 2015 was not the result of him revamping his entire game. Instead, it was driven by one thing in particular: power.
Cespedes‘ power awakening was evident not only in the fact that his 35 homers blew away his previous career high of 26, but also in how he enjoyed a huge spike in isolated power. And it continues to make sense as you go down the line.
Cespedes also posted a career-low soft-hit rate and a career-high hard-hit rate, signaling that he truly was hitting the ball harder. The shift in those two departments was especially pronounced when he got the ball up in the air.
We shouldn’t be surprised that Cespedes‘ big breakout was based on power. As we saw in the 2013 and 2014 Home Run Derbies, his power is the most impressive of his many raw talents. And even before 2015, his power was the one skill that showed up consistently in games.
Clearly, this is where Cespedes‘ suitors should be focusing. If Cespedes‘ 2015 power spike can endure, his rise to superstardom could also endure. The question, then, is how a team can exploit his power.
Or, more accurately, where.
One thing that stands out when looking at Cespedes‘ career home/road splits is that he’s tended to be a better power hitter away from home. He owns a .202 career ISO at home and a .228 career ISO on the road.
Which makes sense. Apart from a two-month stint in Boston at the end of 2014, Cespedes has spent his career playing home games in parks that aren’t known to be power-friendly. First there was O.co Coliseum, and then came Comerica Park and Citi Field. Per ESPN.com’s park factors, all three tend to rate as either neutral or unfriendly parks for power hitters.
Giving Cespedes a more power-friendly home ballpark to play in, therefore, could go a long way toward making sure his 2015 power breakout has some staying power. And this, naturally, is where it becomes easy to draw a line in the sand between his suitors.
On one side, you have the Angels and Giants. Because it would mainly involve gambling on Cespedes‘ power, both clubs should be wary of signing him—even if it were at a discounted rate. Angel Stadium of Anaheim and AT&T Park are noted death traps for power hitters. As such, neither club would be putting Cespedes in a good position to continue his power-based breakout.
The White Sox and Orioles are on the other side of the line and, indeed, on the other side of the spectrum. U.S. Cellular Field and Oriole Park at Camden Yards are notoriously power-friendly, giving both clubs major incentive to keep leading the charge for Cespedes.
Of course, there is the matter of dollars and cents. But that’s where either club might actually be able to get its wish.
Let’s assume it’s true that neither the White Sox nor the Orioles want to pay market value for Cespedes. That would have put them on the outside looking in a couple of months ago, but that’s not necessarily true now. With so much money having already been spent in free agency, there may not be enough to go around for the big players remaining on the open market.
As John Perrotto wrote at TodaysKnuckleball.com, “there is a feeling” that heavy hitters like Cespedes, Justin Upton, Alex Gordon and Chris Davis will have to settle for less money than they originally hoped. Albeit more tentatively, Joel Sherman of the New York Post also expressed a belief that “prices ultimately will fall.”
For clubs like the Angels and Giants, this means there’s a chance they could limit the risk involved with signing Cespedes despite neither club having the right ballpark for him. For the White Sox and Orioles, on the other hand, it means a chance to potentially turn Cespedes into a massive free-agent steal.
Granted, Cespedes himself would probably prefer to get his asking price. But as far as consolation prizes go, he could ask for worse than the chance to show his big breakout was no fluke.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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