Euphoria eventually wears off. It fades like a glorious fog that can be thick enough to mask a flawed landscape within.
That is not to say everything is bad once things clear up. Things might still be attractive to certain onlookers, just not as wonderful as the oasis that once existed.
This is sort of the way Yoenis Cespedes’ free agency has developed. Not that he won’t have a market, and not that he might not command something north of $100 million by the time he puts pen to paper, but the euphoria of his post-trade production with the New York Mets faded through the postseason and could result in some teams becoming unwilling to commit nine figures to him.
“The World Series exposed his occasional inattentiveness and other flaws, but some of those struggles perhaps stemmed from a shoulder injury,” Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal wrote this week. “The bigger problem for Cespedes might be generating enough interest from high-revenue clubs.”
But it only takes a single mega-money agreement to sink a player’s value, turning him into a rip-off going forward.
The Mets, the Detroit Tigers (Cespedes’ former team), the Boston Red Sox, the New York Yankees, the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Chicago Cubs do not appear to have interest in him right now. If Cespedes was looking for a deal that topped Jacoby Ellsbury’s $153 million total, taking those teams out of the mix puts a huge dent in that plan.
However, as we have seen time and time again in free agency, it only takes one team to want a guy enough that it offers him the years and dollar amount he is seeking. There does not have to be a bidding war, only one general manager looking to price out the market and secure the player’s signature.
And with the San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners, Houston Astros and Los Angeles Angels possibly in the market for an impact bat, Cespedes still could land that kind of huge contract.
“He was hurt by makeup questions in Boston and little things have cropped up in New York,” the New York Post’s Joel Sherman wrote about Cespedes recently. “He is a great athlete with righty power (that pays) with an industry worried if he shuts down with long-term security.”
Cespedes turned his production to volume 10 after his July trade from the Tigers to the Mets, which was the third time he’s been traded in the previous three years to give him four employers since the July 2012 trade deadline. That movement has some believing Cespedes will continue to be driven even after locking in a rich, long-term deal.
“In my view, he’s developed a pretty big chip on his shoulder from being traded so many times in recent years,” a scout told Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com. “I think that will drive him for a while.”
Upon getting to New York, Cespedes hit .309/.356/.691 with a 1.048 OPS, 17 home runs and 42 RBI in his first month and a half (41 games, 188 plate appearances) with the Mets. Those numbers even drew in supporters of him as a National League MVP candidate.
He cooled down dramatically over the last 16 regular-season games, and during the postseason, he hit .222/.232/.352 with a .584 OPS and 17 strikeouts in 56 plate appearances. He also played some shoddy defense, though it came in center field, where no courting team would consider making him a full-time occupant.
Cespedes has been a productive player to this point in his career since coming to the majors from Cuba. Since his debut in 2012, he ranks 12th among all outfielders in FanGraphs’ wins above replacement, and his 121 wRC+ is 21st among qualified outfielders.
Defensively, he is also one of the better left fielders in the game. His 32 defensive runs saved rate third since 2012, and his 33.3 ultimate zone rating ranks second, as does his throwing arm.
The red flags are that Cespedes gets on base only about 32 percent of the time, and a guy like Alex Gordon, while he is older, might come cheaper with better defense. Gordon also gets on base more, though he has less power.
Cespedes probably will never recreate those stunning first six weeks he spent with the Mets, but he will almost certainly be better than what he was in the postseason. Teams also have to consider that Cespedes is 30 years old, the prime time for hitters to start their career decline.
For Cespedes to reach the $150 million range, it means some team is paying him for his best past production and praying he will duplicate it in the years to come. That is a dangerous precedent, and one that could turn Cespedes from a trade-deadline god to a free-agent bust.
The euphoria has faded for Cespedes, but the coming weeks will tell if enough of it can still blind some team to pay him beyond his actual worth.
All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired first-hand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.
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