If Zack Greinke hasn’t cleared space in his trophy case yet, he’d better get busy. Because, while the race for the National League Cy Young Award isn’t over, the Los Angeles Dodgers‘ right-hander looks more like the prohibitive front-runner with each superlative start.
Greinke twirled his latest gem on Sunday, shutting out the Arizona Diamondbacks for eight innings while racking up eight strikeouts and issuing no walks. (The bullpen nearly coughed it up, as closer Kenley Jansen surrendered a three-run homer to Jarrod Saltalamacchia in the ninth, but the Dodgers prevailed, 4-3.)
With his ERA now sitting at a minuscule 1.61 and an imposing 17-3 record (even if you spit on pitching wins, that’s eye-opening), it’s difficult to imagine anyone else taking home the NL’s top pitching prize.
And really, it’s been that way all season.
Greinke opened his 2015 campaign by tossing six innings of two-hit, one-run ball against the San Diego Padres on April 7.
That six-inning mark would prove meaningful, because it’s the minimum number of frames Greinke has thrown in every start this season.
He’s also allowed three earned runs or fewer in all but two of his 29 outings, and he’s kept his ERA constantly under 2.00.
There’s steady, and then there’s dominant. What Greinke is doing is some freakish combination of the two. Call it “stominant,” for lack of an actual word.
“You get spoiled when you see it every day. ‘Oh, he went six or seven innings again, gave up one run,'” Greinke’s rotation-mate, Clayton Kershaw, said, per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. “That’s the sign of a great season, when your teammates are, ‘Ho hum, another great start.'”
Speaking of Kershaw, I said up there that it was difficult to imagine anyone else winning the NL Cy Young—difficult, but not impossible.
As transcendent as Greinke has been, Kershaw—the reigning NL Cy Young and MVP winner—is right there with him. And so is Jake Arrieta of the Chicago Cubs.
Here, let’s just lay the three studs’ stats on the table:
Greinke has the otherworldly ERA, but Arrieta has nudged his under 2.00 as well. And Kershaw owns the gaudy strikeout total.
Plus, all three hurlers pitch for clubs that appear ticketed for October, so voters who factor that in won’t be able to use team success as a tiebreaker.
One variable that could tip the scales toward Arrieta is that he pitches in the NL Central. Not only is the division full of hitter-happy yards, it features the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates, both of whom are on track to join the Cubs in the postseason.
The NL West, meanwhile, where Greinke and Kershaw toil, boasts only one above-.500 team besides LA (the San Francisco Giants) and three pitcher-friendly yards in Dodger Stadium, San Francisco’s AT&T Park and San Diego’s Petco Park.
It’s no surprise, as MLB.com’s Phil Rogers recently pointed out, that the NL West has produced 12 of the Senior Circuit’s last 16 Cy Young winners.
It’s a fair point. Greinke, though, has dominated on almost every mound he’s climbed.
In fact, in 20.2 combined innings at Wrigley Field, Milwaukee‘s Miller Park and Cincinnati‘s Great American Ball Park (the three NL Central stadiums in which Greinke has pitched this year) he has allowed nine hits and exactly zero earned runs.
One of the only places he’s endured what might be called a bad start was Colorado‘s Coors Field, where he yielded five runs and 10 hits in six innings. But, you know, it’s Coors Field.
There’s still a little time for Greinke to falter, and for Kershaw and Arrieta to push themselves over the top. What if Arrieta, say, threw another no-hitter to add to the one he tossed Aug. 30 against the Dodgers? Or what if Kershaw authored a masterpiece like his 15-strikeout no-no from 2014?
In a race this close, those kind of indelible moments could be the difference.
Of course, Greinke’s more than capable of doing something historic, like the 45.2 scoreless-innings streak he logged this season, the fourth-longest in MLB since 1960.
But if Greinke wins his second career Cy Young, it’ll likely be on the strength of his ludicrously low ERA (assuming it remains ludicrously low). ESPN’s Jayson Stark expanded on this point:
To make the case that anyone other than Greinke should win this award, you’re essentially arguing that ERA doesn’t matter. And boy, is there an irony to going down that road to build a case AGAINST Zack Greinke.
That’s because in 2009, when Greinke won his first Cy Young, it was his glittering ERA (2.16) that was the single biggest reason he won. And at the time, we actually looked at that as a breakthrough. Remember? It felt like the first time voters had looked past a guy’s win total (16, in his case) and voted for the man who had—shocker—pitched the best. Quite a concept.
Stats keep advancing, and ERA has its flaws, no argument there.
For his part, however, Greinke has been virtually flawless. You don’t have to love ERA to appreciate what he’s accomplished. You just have to love baseball.
It’s entertaining and good for the game for there to be a legitimate debate about the NL Cy Young. The next few weeks should be exceedingly interesting as Greinke, Arrieta and Kershaw make their closing arguments.
Right now, though, if I’m casting a ballot, I’m voting for Greinke and not thinking twice. He’s simply been that good. No, wait, good isn’t the right word. How about…stominant.
All stats current as of Sept. 13 and courtesy of MLB.com unless otherwise noted.
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