Kuzul

The MLB offseason has already given trade hounds plenty to chew on.

Much of the action has come courtesy of the Chicago White Sox, who shipped ace lefty Chris Sale to the Boston Red Sox and outfielder Adam Eaton to the Washington Nationals.

Many top targets remain on the board, however, and with the free-agent pool getting shallower, we can expect a few more seismic swaps before winter’s end.

With that in mind, let’s examine six players whose names have floated through the rumor mill and put together hypothetical win-win prospect packages for each.

Some of what follows is based on confirmed reports, some is pure speculation. All the players listed, however, have been the subject of credible trade chatter and would shift the balance of power if moved. 

One notable omission: Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen, who seems increasingly likely to stay put for the time being, with FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reporting the Bucs have rejected at least one “nice offer” of prospects and are demanding “MLB now or MLB ready” talent. 

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Derek Holland will get a much-needed fresh start in 2017, as he signed a one-year deal with the Chicago White Sox on Wednesday.

The White Sox announced the signing after MLB.com’s TR Sullivan was the first to report Holland’s decision, and Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News shared the length of the contract. 

Grant also reported the deal could be worth up to $8 million and provided some further context to the move:

Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported slightly different terms, tweeting that the contract is worth a base of $6 million with as much as $1 million in incentives.

The Texas Rangers declined their $11 million contract option on Holland in November, which made him a free agent and freed him up to sign with any team.

It wasn’t a surprise to see the Rangers move on from Holland after his struggles over the previous two seasons and inability to stay on the field since 2013. 

Holland has appeared in just 38 games over the previous three seasons, and his performance on the mound has been less than stellar with a 4.30 ERA in just 203 innings during that span. 

Grant wrote about some of the other issues that have plagued Holland during his injury-riddled run since 2014:

His average fastball velocity dropped to 91.7 mph in 2016 from 93.6 in 2013. The difference in speed between his secondary pitches is now just 5 mph where it once was 7.5 mph. It adds up to a recipe for guys being better able to identify pitches and being able to wait for mistakes with more assurance they will come. The Rangers wanted him to throw his changeup more in 2016 and the usage did grow, but at a microscopic level: Less than one percent.

Holland completed just 107.1 innings in 2016, going 7-9 with a 4.95 ERA and 1.41 WHIP.

At just 30 years old, Holland will have a chance to reinvent himself as a member of the White Sox. His career ERA of 4.35 ERA leaves something to be desired, but the veteran southpaw did manage to go 10-9 with a 3.42 ERA in 2013.

Given how much of a struggle it has been for Holland to take the mound every fifth day, he has a lot to prove next season if he hopes to continue his MLB career as a starting pitcher. He does get a clean slate and will have ample opportunity to prove there is more in the tank than he’s been able to show lately. 

Holland could provide great value as part of a weak free-agent class, and he will have a chance to become an important part of Chicago’s rotation after the team dealt Chris Sale to the Boston Red Sox.

Although Holland figures to slot behind the likes of Jose Quintana, Carlos Rodon and James Shields, he gives the White Sox a veteran presence and depth at the back end of their pitching staff until youngsters Lucas Giolito (22) and Reynaldo Lopez (22) are ready to step up.

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The timing couldn’t be much worse for an aging slugger in MLB free agency.

Mike Napoli (35) and Mark Trumbo (30) are both coming off productive seasons, but they’ve yet to find new homes. Although Jose Bautista (36) had an underwhelming campaign, he still boasts an impressive track record. Despite that, he hasn’t signed with a team, either.

The wait may be worth it. Justin Upton didn’t agree to terms with the Detroit Tigers until January last offseason yet still commanded nearly $133 million over six years, per Spotrac.

Napoli’s, Trumbo’s and Bautista’s signings may not be imminent, but the rumors below illustrate that their failures to get new deals aren’t the result of a lack of interest.

Mike Napoli

Napoli registered career highs in home runs (34) and RBI (101) in 2016, but that hasn’t helped him in free agency, given that he remains without a team.

On Dec. 6, MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian reported Napoli’s agent is holding out for a multiyear contract. Bastian added the Cleveland Indians were holding firm on a one-year offer.

In an interview on MLB Network Radio last Sunday, Indians general manager Chris Antonetti said contract discussions were ongoing: “We continue the dialogue with him, as we do with other 1B/DH options. Confident we start next year with a better roster.”

Napoli added a lot of power to the middle of Cleveland’s lineup, and “Party at Napoli’s” became a rallying cry for the team as it won its first pennant since 1997.

With that said, the Indians are smart to be cautious about signing Napoli for too long. He turned 35 in October, so it’s risky to expect he can repeat last season’s success at the plate. 

A small-market team like Cleveland can’t afford to make a mistake on a lucrative contract for an older veteran. The Indians learned that lesson the hard way after signing Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher in 2013.

Napoli has found a comfort zone in Cleveland. He would not only have an assured place in the lineup, but he would also have the opportunity to compete for another World Series so long as the key players stay healthy.

Napoli and the Indians should meet halfway and agree to a two-year deal with an option for the second year. Napoli would get his multiyear contract, and Cleveland would have a little more protection should his performance regress.

Prediction: Napoli signs with the Indians.

Jose Bautista

Bautista picked the wrong time to have his worst year offensively since his career renaissance began in 2010.

The 36-year-old had a .234/.366/.452 slash line to go along with 22 home runs and 69 RBI. According to FanGraphs, his strikeout rate climbed to 19.9 percent, up from 15.9 percent the year before.

Like Napoli, Bautista was largely anonymous in the playoffs. He went 6-for-33 in the postseason with two home runs, five RBI and 12 strikeouts.

In addition to his lackluster offensive production, MLB.com’s Daren Willman showed that defense is becoming a growing concern for Bautista:

On Dec. 6, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reported Bautista met with the Toronto Blue Jays, indicating the two parties may be open to a reunion.

MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi reported that Joey Bats’ available options are dwindling. Morosi spoke to sources who said that the New York Yankees and San Francisco Giants have pulled out of the running and that the Los Angeles Dodgers may prefer a trade rather than free agency to bolster their outfield.

Bautista is a fan favorite in Toronto, and relying on Ezequiel Carrera as their everyday right fielder isn’t an optimal plan for the Blue Jays. Re-signing Bautista wouldn’t just be a sentimental move; it would also address what looks to be an issue in the lineup.

Prediction: Bautista signs with the Blue Jays.

Mark Trumbo

Heyman reported on Dec. 7 that Trumbo is looking to get $80 million in free agency and that the price tag hasn’t scared off teams that are interested in signing the 30-year-old.

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch‘s Derrick Goold reported that signing Dexter Fowler wouldn’t preclude the St. Louis Cardinals from going after Trumbo. Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal tweeted the Colorado Rockies would be in the mix as well, even after making a splashy free-agent addition:

MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko didn’t provide specific figures but reported on Sunday that the Baltimore Orioles “are believed to have the best offer on the table.”

Age is somewhat of an advantage for Trumbo in this year’s free-agent market. At 30, he’s nearing the end of his prime playing years, but he’s still younger than Napoli, Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion (33).

It’s fair to question whether Trumbo can repeat his 47 home runs and 108 RBI, but outside of his time with the Arizona Diamondbacks, he has been a solid power hitter. Over seven years, he has averaged 34 homers, 99 RBI and a .473 slugging percentage per 162 games, according to Baseball-Reference.com.

The Rockies would be a good fit for Trumbo.

The Ian Desmond signing was a statement of intent by the franchise. Adding Trumbo to a lineup that already includes Desmond, Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado would give Colorado an imposing offense.

As Rosenthal argued, getting Trumbo would provide the Rockies with enough flexibility to deal Carlos Gonzalez for present or future assets.

Trumbo would likely have a better chance to contend in Baltimore, but the Rockies should be a strong suitor for his services if that isn’t a decisive factor in his decision.

Prediction: Trumbo signs with the Rockies.

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The MLB winter meetings have come and gone with no shortage of excitement, but there are still several notable free agents left unsigned and holes to be filled on all 30 rosters around the league.

Edwin Encarnacion, Mark Trumbo, Jose Bautista, Matt Wieters, Mike Napoli, Michael Saunders, Rajai Davis, Welington Castillo, Brandon Moss and Chase Utley are among the top position players still searching for a new home.

Meanwhile, the starting pitching market still features the likes of Ivan Nova, Jason Hammel, Doug Fister, Colby Lewis, Travis Wood and intriguing bounce-back candidate Tyson Ross.

The closer market has played out but there are still several impact relievers as well, headlined by Brad Ziegler, Neftali Feliz, Jerry Blevins, Boone Logan, Mike Dunn, Daniel Hudson, Sergio Romo, Joe Blanton and another intriguing injury returnee in Greg Holland.

So with all of those capable contributors still looking for a new contract, let’s take an updated look at one potentially perfect target for all 30 MLB teams.

Some targets are potential trade candidates, but most are remaining free agents. Some target suggestions are based on rumors of team interest, while others are purely speculative.

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After four years with the Boston Red Sox, veteran reliever Koji Uehara has found a new home with the Chicago Cubs. 

ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers reported Wednesday that Uehara inked a one-year, $6 million deal with the defending World Series champs, and the Cubs later announced the news. 

Uehara is one of the most interesting relievers in Major League Baseball. He has performed at a high level for nearly a decade despite having a fastball that FanGraphs‘ stats show has never averaged more than 89.2 mph and dipped to a career-low 86.7 mph in 2016. 

The key to Uehara’s success is his split-finger fastball that drops off the table when he’s at his best, as Tim Britton of the Providence Journal wrote in 2014: “It was also the most effective his splitter has ever been, as opponents hit a beggarly .096 off the pitch in 2013. It induced a career-high whiff rate of 28 percent.”

Turning 41 last April, Uehara is starting to show signs he lacks the same type of dominance with that splitter. His 1.5 home runs allowed per nine innings tied the worst mark of his career (2011), per Baseball-Reference.com.

The veteran also posted his highest ERA since 2009 with a 3.45 mark last season, but he still baffled hitters overall with his seventh consecutive season posting a WHIP lower than 1.00 and more than 10 strikeouts per nine innings, so the sky is hardly falling for the right-hander. 

The concern for Uehara is there’s such a small margin for error with his declining fastball velocity that at some point hitters will be able to tee off on the pitch, negating the effectiveness of his splitter, as right-handed hitters gave him fits last season. 

Until that point comes, though, Uehara is still one of the most consistent relievers in baseball and a terrific value because his age didn’t force the Cubs to break the bank.

While Chicago was unable to keep closer Aroldis Chapman in free agency, it acquired Wade Davis via trade and now boasts a potentially dominant late-inning trio with Uehara joining both Davis and Hector Rondon.

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Deals are made in MLB—both trades and free-agent signings—to make a team better. That’s obvious. But it’s worth saying nonetheless because that doesn’t always end up being the case.

Once games begin, some moves seem like bargains. Others become head-scratchers, and then some are just foolhardy.

The final verdict on all of these deals won’t be reached until the end of the 2017 season at least. But waiting for October is no fun. Let’s take a look at how all the major moves of this MLB offseason break down right now.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers are going to be good in 2017. For fans of the franchise, this must be at once comforting and beside the point.

The Dodgers being good has been a fact of life for the last four seasons. They’ve averaged 92 wins per year, captured four National League West titles and made two trips to the National League Championship Series. That’s one more than the Washington Nationals/Montreal Expos have made in 48 years of existence.

The problem, of course, has been ascending from good to great.

Coming close to the World Series is nice, but you know what they say about coming close only counting in horseshoes and hand grenades. It’s been 28 years since the Dodgers both went to the World Series and won it—a long streak for such a storied franchise.

Not to mention one that’s been keeping its payrolls well north of $200 million since 2013. And the Dodgers recently ensured they’ll be right there again in 2017.

They committed $48 million to left-handed starter Rich Hill at the winter meetings last week. On Monday, they agreed to spend another $80 million on closer Kenley Jansen and $64 million on third baseman Justin Turner. Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com calculated that Los Angeles is slated for a $230 million luxury-tax payroll in 2017. And that’s with holes still remaining on its roster.

My initial take on the Dodgers filling three big holes by re-signing Hill, Jansen and Turner was that they secured a spot among the NL’s elite clubs in 2017. I stopped short of putting them on the same level with the Chicago Cubs because, well, the Cubs are really good.

They won 103 games in 2016. They then dispatched the Dodgers in the NLCS en route to their first World Series title in 108 years. Their roster has since taken some hits—but none they can’t recover from. It’s that simple.

Or seemed to be, anyway. After the Jansen and Turner signings, FanGraphs’ projections for MLB‘s top teams in 2017 looked like this:

It’s advised to take these figures with a grain or two of salt. But if we’re going to read into them—and we are—the general idea on display isn’t totally unbelievable.

The Cubs can look to Albert Almora and Kyle Schwarber to replace Dexter Fowler’s defense and offense in the aggregate, but his departure left them without a leadoff hitter. Wade Davis is arguably as good of a closer as Aroldis Chapman, but he’s not markedly better.

Elsewhere in the bullpen, the addition of Koji Uehara may be offset by the loss of Travis Wood. The Cubs have added Brian Duensing to fill his shoes, but he likely won’t match Wood’s extreme lefty-slaying ability. Based on his track record, Mike Montgomery, who is stepping into Jason Hammel’s rotation spot, provides no real gain and another loss for the bullpen.

While the Cubs have made seemingly no improvements, the Dodgers have made at least one big one.

Their starting rotation wasn’t an abomination in 2016, but it was a source of consternation for much of the year. Kenta Maeda was the one guy who stayed healthy and consistent. Clayton Kershaw was brilliant when he pitched, but a back injury limited him to 21 starts. Hill was excellent after he came over from the Oakland A’s in a deadline trade, but he made only six starts. Elsewhere, it was a revolving door of starters who had varying degrees of success.

It should be a different story in 2017. If nothing else, the Dodgers can rest easy knowing their ace is OK.

“I had an injury, and it’s not injured anymore, so now you keep going,” Kershaw told Ken Gurnick of MLB.com last week.

If Kershaw is his usual self and Hill makes at least 20 starts, the Dodgers will have one of the best one-two punches in the majors for most of 2017. After that, they’ll have Maeda’s reliability and healthy versions of Scott Kazmir, Alex Wood and Brandon McCarthy. They also have quite the wild card in Julio Urias, who quietly excelled in 2016 after taking a minute to find his footing in the majors.

As such, there could be something to the early projection that the Dodgers will have the best starting pitching in the league in 2017. The club’s lineup and bullpen, meanwhile, should be no worse than they were in 2016.

The former only has a hole at second base, where Chase Utley left a relatively low bar to clear. And by retaining Jansen, Los Angeles ensured games will continue to flow to one of the sport’s best relief pitchers.

The CliffsNotes version: The 2017 Dodgers will be a lot like the 2016 Dodgers, except without the starting pitching woes. That plus the non-upgrades in Chicago could close the talent gap between the two teams.

At least on paper, anyway. But while that may not mean much for the regular season, a potential postseason matchup is a different story.

The power of the postseason is its ability to magnify everything, including all the little details of each team’s roster. That tends to turn things that are mere nitpicks in the regular season into fatal flaws in October.

Which takes us back to the Dodgers’ loss to the Cubs in the NLCS.

One of the flaws Chicago exploited was Los Angeles’ lack of quality bullpen depth underneath Jansen. It had been good enough to that point, but the Cubs revealed the middle-relief parade of Joe Blanton, Pedro Baez, Ross Stripling and others to be about as unspectacular as you’d expect a parade of those names to be. They surrendered 18 runs in nine innings of work.

With only Vidal Nuno joining the mix this winter, this issue still needs solving. The free-agent market still has solid options (Greg Holland, Brad Ziegler, Sergio Romo, Joe Smith) who could help.

The bigger issue in need of attention, though, is the Dodgers’ weakness against left-handed pitching.

It was punctuated by an MLB-low OPS against southpaws in the regular season, and it bit them again in the NLCS. The Dodgers offense was undone by its lack of power, and Baseball Savant shows the problem was worse against Chicago’s lefties (.277 SLG%) than its righties (.320 SLG%).

The Dodgers have added Darin Ruf and his .921 career OPS against lefties, but that’s only one part-time bat in a sea of mostly left-handed hitters. Their payroll may be too overextended for a run at any of the free-agent options who could help, but the trade market includes some affordable alternatives: Brian Dozier and Ryan Braun, for example.

If the Dodgers want to leave good enough alone, they’ll enter 2017 with a team that should deliver another 90-plus win season and NL West title. But if the idea is to win the World Series, they need a team that can get through the Cubs.

For that, just a little bit more is required.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked. Salary and contract data courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

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We’re deep into the MLB offseason, which means the speculation machine is running on hot-stove fumes.

Some of the biggest free agents and trade targets have found homes. Now, it’s time to sift through the remainder and concoct scenarios—both to stave off boredom and because once in a while this stuff actually happens.

In that spirit, here’s a hypothetical deal that’s pure speculation but bursting with plausible intrigue: The New York Yankees shipping left fielder Brett Gardner to the San Francisco Giants.

First, the rumor: The Yankees, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported Tuesday, are continuing “to gauge interest” in Gardner, who has drifted through the rumor mill since the 2016 trade deadline at least.

New York, Sherman added, may be unable to make more moves without shedding salary as it proceeds with its rebuild/retool/whatever.

Gardner isn’t a back-breaker, payroll-wise, but he’s owed $12.5 million in 2017 and $11.5 million in 2018 with a $12.5 million team option and $2 million buyout for 2019.

That could be an impediment for San Francisco. 

The Giants already signed closer Mark Melancon for four years and $62 million. They may be nearing the top of their budget.

“I don’t think there’s anything more to ask of ownership,” general manager Bobby Evans said, per John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle. “It’s more what I can do with what we have.”

That’s the line for the time being. It may be the final line. Monetary constraints are often malleable, however. 

The Giants are in a win-now window. Key members of their offensive core such as Buster Posey and Hunter Pence are in the twilight of their prime. Co-ace Johnny Cueto can opt out of his contract after 2017.

The even-year mystique was punctured last season when the Giants were bounced in the division series by the Chicago Cubs. Still, this is a playoff-caliber team with a hole in left field.

Enter the Yanks and Gardner.

The 33-year-old posted a .261/.351/.362 slash line in 2016 with six triples and 16 stolen bases and won his first career Gold Glove.

The Giants’ incumbent left fielder, Angel Pagan, is a free agent. While Pence is Sharpied into right field and Denard Span in center, the best current option in left is the untested duo of Mac Williamson and Jarrett Parker.

New York, meanwhile, can turn to up-and-comers, such as Aaron Judge and Tyler Austin, to join the likes of Jacoby Ellsbury and Aaron Hicks in its outfield, with MiLB stud Clint Frazier coming down the pike.

Gardner would be missed. He’s the Yankees’ senior player at present, as Pinstripe Alley pointed out:

If dealing him allowed the Yanks the flexibility to bolster a questionable starting rotation, however, it’d be a tradeoff worth taking.

What would it cost to pry Gardner away from the Bronx?

“He’s here not because I can’t move him; he’s here because I’m not comfortable moving him, or haven’t been satisfied in my asks that would make me move him,” Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said, per MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch. “You’re going through the process, and you see if that changes. So far to this point, I’ve said no to a lot of different concepts thrown my way on it.”

The Giants’ farm system isn’t bursting with blue-chips, but they do have talent. 

Infielder Christian Arroyo, the club’s top prospect per MLB.com, should be off-limits. A package headlined by power-hitting Chris Shaw (MLB.com‘s No. 6 first base prospect) and, say, left-hander Andrew Suarez could be enough to get New York’s attention. 

Gardner, it should be noted, won’t solve the Giants’ power problem. San Francisco hit the third-fewest home runs in the game last season. Gardner hit just seven.

His gap pop would play well in AT&T Park’s Triples Alley, however. His defense and plate discipline would slot seamlessly into the Giants’ current roster.

He’s not a savior, but he won’t come at a savior price in terms of prospects or payroll. The Giants will have to budge from their no-more-spending stance. They’ll have to cough up some minor league capital. But they won’t have to back up the Brink’s truck.

As for the Yankees, they can further gild an already glistening farm system and shed some cash in the process.

Sounds like a win-win—and smells like a hot-stove special.

All statistics and contract information courtesy of MLB.com and Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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It looks as though the New York Yankees‘ offseason spending could remain dormant for the rest of the winter; however, veteran outfielder Brett Gardner‘s name has emerged in trade talks. 

Continue for updates. 

Yankees Shopping Gardner

Tuesday, Dec. 13

According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the Yankees have continued to “gauge interest” in Gardner in an attempt to cut salary. 

The 33-year-old is owed $23 million over the next two seasons, which are the final portions of his four-year, $52 million deal, per Spotrac. 

Gardner has spent each of his first nine MLB seasons with the Yankees, compiling a career .264 batting average and .346 on-base percentage as a bat near the top of the lineup. 

While his power numbers fluctuated from 17 home runs in 2015 to just seven in 2016, Gardner can still add speed on the basepaths and in a corner outfield spot. That could make him an attractive trade option to teams looking for a veteran spark.

Shedding his deal would be a step in the right direction for New York to get under the $197 million luxury-tax threshold for 2018, which is a goal of owner Hal Steinbrenner, according to Sherman. 

The Yankees were busy, though, around and during the winter meetings, signing veteran outfielder Matt Holliday to a one-year, $13 million deal and closer Aroldis Chapman to a five-year, $86 million contract. 

Per Sherman, that has the Yankees hovering near a $210 million payroll heading into 2017, which makes the prospects of adding another reliever like Boone Logan or Brad Ziegler to join Chapman and setup man Dellin Betances unlikely unless they can get a contract like Gardner’s off the books. 

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Third baseman Justin Turner has reportedly re-signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers, per Jim Bowden of ESPN.

Jon Heyman of Today’s Knuckleball reported the two sides have agreed to a four-year, $64 million deal.

Turner, 32, had a career year in 2016, hitting .275 with 27 home runs, 90 RBI and 79 runs. Turner was a late bloomer, but in the past two seasons with the Dodgers, he’s ripped 43 homers and knocked in 150 runs, making him one of the more appealing players in free agency.

But he was always likely to return to Los Angeles.

“I’d love to stay here,” the Long Beach native told Heyman in September. “I love playing here. I love playing at home.”

While Turner’s age means he may not have many productive seasons left, he was a huge reason the Dodgers reached the National League Championship Series.

There may be some concerns, however. Namely, Turner hit just .209 with five home runs against left-handed pitchers last year. While he slayed right-handers—hitting .305 with 22 homers—he could find himself in a platoon if he gets off to a slow start in 2017.

But Turner hit well enough to hold an everyday role in 2016, and Los Angeles will be banking on him to do the same in 2017.

You can follow Timothy Rapp on Twitter.

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